Week 9 Stat Roll

[OrangeBowlMagic]

First of all, let me cry because it's Week 10 already. This **** goes by WAY too fast. But without further ado....

As always, these are only numbers from FBS vs FBS competition.

Offense:

Yards per play: 55th (5.78 YPP)
Yards per game: 61st (389.2 YPG)
Points per game: 32nd (32.2 PPG)
Passing yards per game: 55th (242.2 YPG)
Passing completion percentage: 5th (70.9%)
Passing yards per attempt: 33rd (8.0 YPA)
Passer rating: 33rd (148.4)
Passing TDs: 61st (10 TDs)
Interceptions: 100th (7 INTs)
Rushing yards per game: 68th (147.0 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt: 75th (3.97 YPA)
Rushing TDs: 24th (15)
Sacks given up per game: 6th (0.67 per game)
First Downs per game: 66th (20.3 per game)
3rd down conversion %: 30th (45.7%)
4th down conversion %: 24th (67%, 10 for 15 on the season)
TFLs allowed per game: 4th (3.3 per game)
Red Zone TD %: 9th (76% TD rate, 19 TDs in 25 chances)
Red Zone Scoring %: 22nd (23 scores in 25 chances)
Field goal %: 25th (7 for 8)
PAT %: 1st (29 for 29)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 112th (74) Only 13 against Stanford...yikes
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 104th (23) Only 2 against Stanford....YIKES
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 89th (11) Only 1 against Stanford....Shoot me
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 85th (5)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 84th (2)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 83rd (1)
70+ Yard Scrimmage Plays: 84th (0)


Defense:

Yards per play allowed: 10th (4.46 YPP)
Yards per game allowed: 11th (283.7 YPG)
Points per game allowed: 10th (16.0 PPG)
Passing yards per game allowed: 30th (197.2 YPG)
Passing completion percentage allowed: 16th (56.9%)
Passing yards per attempt: 12th (5.9 YPA)
Passer rating allowed: 16th (113.25)
Rushing yards per game allowed: 8th (86.5 YPG)
Rushing yards per attempt allowed: 12th (2.88 YPA)
Sacks per game: 36th (2.3 sacks per game)
3rd down % allowed: 17th (31.76% allowed)
4th down % allowed: 65th (53.3%, opponents 8/15 on 4th down)
Red Zone td % allowed: 102nd (69.2% allowed -- 9 TDs in 13 chances)
Red Zone Scoring % allowed: 121sth (92% allowed -- 12 scores in 13 chances)
Punting: 51st (43.95 Yard average)
10+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 8th (61)
20+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 10th (18)
30+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 12th (8)
40+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 14th (3)
50+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 21st (2)
60+ Yard Scrimmage Plays allowed: 19th (1)


Team Stats:

Penalties: 124th (8.0 penalties per game)
Penalty yards: 92nd (60.2 Yards per game)
Turnover margin: 34th (+0.5 per game -- 10 takeaways, 7 giveaways)
Time of possession: 7th (33:43 per game)
Number of offensive plays: (Avg 67 plays per game)

Advanced Metrics:

Total ADJ/EPA per play: 8th
Success Rate %: 5th
Offensive Adj/EPA per play: 38th
Passing EPA/dropback: 29th
Rushing EPA/rush: 54th
Offensive Success Rate: 11th
Defensive Adj/EPA per play: 11th
Passing Defensive EPA/dropback: 20th
Rushing Defensive EPA/rush: 15th
Defensive Success Rate: 10th

Takeaways: OK, for my sanity, let's start this week with the defense. I said in a thread Sat night that I felt, when the numbers ran, we'd be a Top 10 defense in virtually every metric. Well, priors are confirmed. This defense continues to be absolutely outstanding. I genuinely feel this is a national championship caliber defense. We're good enough on that side to win a national championship, which is INSANE to say after last year. Standing ovation to everyone involved thus far. It's such a joy to watch Miami play defense when the kids are at full-speed, communicating, and playing aggressively. We held Stanford under 150 yards of offense. That's now TWICE in 6 FBS games holding an opponent under 150 yards. I went back to 2016, you know how many times we've held an FBS team under 150 yards in the previous 9 seasons? Once. Ball State in 2024, who was probably the worst G5 team in America last year next to Kent State. We've held TWO Power 4 teams under 150 yards. Sensational. We're tough to run against, we're tough to throw against, if you hold the ball, you're dead, if you get behind the sticks, you're dead. If I'm forced to nitpick, the redzone defense can be better. We're now 102nd in TD percentage allowed down there. I'd love to see some more stops inside the 20. But, to be fair, nobody really gets down there very often. We've only allowed 13 red zone opportunities in 6 games. Only Ohio State is better in the country. Not really sure what else needs to be said, but we finally had an FBS "stat padding" game, and did we ever pad some stats on that side. Almost everyone else in the country has played their Stanford to this point. We had not. We finally got a totally overmatched FBS opponent, and we swallowed them. I cannot say enough about Heatherman and that side of the football. Got another challenge this week with Lashlee and the pace, but I think we are who we are at this point. I fully expect the defense to play well enough to win the game. They have now in every single game, and pretty much won us the gator game. To go from that abomination last year to this is borderline erotic.

So, about that stat padding game.....this offense stinks. Just gonna call it how it is. It's very, very disappointing. Somehow the advanced metrics still like us a lot, I think mostly because our success rate is so high, which is a good thing, for sure. But we just generate zero explosive plays. We had TWO plays of 20+ yards against Stanford. Two. Even with that good performance baked in for their defense, they are 122nd in the country in 20+ yard plays allowed. So what were they before our game? Had to be close to worst in America. Now, before I go full mope, I'm a harsh critic on that side of the ball. It's 2025, all the rules are slanted in the offense's favor, it's Year 4 of OL recruiting/development, we spent up massively for a QB, we have highly ranked skill talent all over the roster on that side...I expect better than this. But to be fair, it's not the worst offense in the country. It's capable of playing complementary with the defense and winning the next 5 games. But it's not a national championship offense. If we continue to operate like this, we will lose another game at some point. Hopefully it's not Pitt or before, but we're not winning a chip with this offense getting 5 yards a play against Stanford. Something has to give here. We did improve our season-long numbers somewhat after last week, but this is brutal for me to look at. 104th in America in 20+ yard plays. 75th in yards per carry. 55th in yards per play. It's just not good enough. Like I did with the defense, if you ask me to say what does have me encouraged, it's pretty much the Mario blueprint. At the end of the day, we're 32nd in scoring, which is the name of the game, but how we get there is being 4th in the country in negative plays allowed, being good on 3rd down (30th), and being good in the red-zone (9th in TD%). All of this obviously coincides with being 7th in time of possession. It's not that it's an overly slow offense, it's just that we don't gain a lot of yards, so we're having these long, methodical drives that take up clock. I don't know if that's fully by design, or just a byproduct of how good we are (or aren't).

So if this is going to be the blueprint, we're probably going to continue to play some close-ish games at times. Which we can with this defense, but if we just had an offense in the 30s, or god forbid top 25 like many of us hoped for, I'd be a genuine believer that this team can win it all. As it stands today, I think the ceiling is a playoff berth, which is a shame because, if I had a crystal ball, I think at the end of the year, we're going to be sitting here ****ed off because we "wasted" a championship caliber defense with an average offense, just like last year, but in reverse. Still a lot of ball to be played, I'd love to be wrong, but at this point, we are who we are on that side. Without some rapid improvement, I'll be pretty surprised if we start winning games in the playoffs.

One final thought, 5 penalties for 30 yards is an improvement. I think we still had 2 false starts though? So, better, but still need to make sure that's cleaned up. Last year, the offensive penalties didn't matter because the next time we snapped the ball, we'd get 17 yards. This year, if we're in 2nd and 15, we may as well just punt.

Go Canes.

 

[TomAce]

Great job. Really appreciate it. I wish there was a metric to measure the damage of timely penalties. Quite a few of them have been during an offense series where Cane are moving the ball and have rhythm or in the red zone.

Also, think we miss out on some explosive runs because it isn't Fletcher's game. He can't run away from anyone and I have more wiggle in the open field. Many times he simply tries to run through a man ten yards down field because there isn't another option.

 

[The U is back to work]

Can’t believe how bad this stupid offense is. I held Dawson in such high regard but it looks like Cam made his career.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Great job. Really appreciate it. I wish there was a metric to measure the damage of timely penalties. Quite a few of them have been during an offense series where Cane are moving the ball and have rhythm or in the red zone.

Also, think we miss out on some explosive runs because it isn't Fletcher's game. He can't run away from anyone and I have more wiggle in the open field. Many times he simply tries to run through a man ten yards down field because there isn't another option.

I don't have data as far as 2024 Fletcher vs Martinez explosive runs, but just off memory, I think both kids did a good job getting 10+ yard carries. I think the main difference this year is the push isn't the same, as evidenced by some metrics shared last week that showed we were 44th in the country in "run push".

I said on Saturday night that I felt our best run blocking line of recent years was Bell, Rivers, Carpenter, Cooper, and Cici.

3 of the 5 are the same, and I'm no OL guru, but I'm guessing we're seeing a pretty steep decline from Rivers/Carp to whoever is playing LG and Brock.

 

[ST26]

The lack of offensive production is still a head-scratcher. I'm sorry, but we have more than enough talent on this offense to be generating explosive plays. We have the slowest offense in the history of college football. My grandma moves with more urgency. We are completely playing against Becks strengths

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Can’t believe how bad this stupid offense is. I held Dawson in such high regard but it looks like Cam made his career.

Probably just a little too simple to paint it like that, but do agree overall.

Cam was a 4th-5th round pick before he came here. So the environment, Dawson included, allowed him to flourish. And the other side of that is, yes, players that good will definitely make an OC look better.

(Please don't turn this into a Cam Ward sucked or was great thread. We have a lot of those already, and they all make me way dumber than I already am. This is about 2025 team stats)

 

[90scane]

I don't have data as far as 2024 Fletcher vs Martinez explosive runs, but just off memory, I think both kids did a good job getting 10+ yard carries. I think the main difference this year is the push isn't the same, as evidenced by some metrics shared last week that showed we were 44th in the country in "run push".

I said on Saturday night that I felt our best run blocking line of recent years was Bell, Rivers, Carpenter, Cooper, and Cici.

3 of the 5 are the same, and I'm no OL guru, but I'm guessing we're seeing a pretty steep decline from Rivers/Carp to whoever is playing LG and Brock.

Carp to Brock is the biggest issue. Remember, McCoy did get snaps last year. Carpenter was a much bigger C and we run a ton of inside zones.

 

[The U is back to work]

Probably just a little too simple to paint it like that, but do agree overall.

Cam was a 4th-5th round pick before he came here. So the environment, Dawson included, allowed him to flourish. And the other side of that is, yes, players that good will definitely make an OC look better.

(Please don't turn this into a Cam Ward sucked or was great thread. We have a lot of those already, and they all make me way dumber than I already am. This is about 2025 team stats)

We for sure helped Cam - case in point the fumbling issues are back when we curbed them big time. Cam’s 4 year stats though were nearly identical to each other before he got to us so he was a pretty consistently productive player.

If this is because Mirabal is running the run offense then Dawson needs to walk into Mario’s office with a cut up of tape and say you’re paying me $1.5m a year let me do my fkn job lol

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

The lack of offensive production is still a head-scratcher. I'm sorry, but we have more than enough talent on this offense to be generating explosive plays. We have the slowest offense in the history of college football. My grandma moves with more urgency. We are completely playing against Becks strengths

Not sure how accurate this really is, and also doesn't account for situation obviously, but teamrankings.com has Miami at 127th in the country in seconds per play. Meaning, we take 29.6 between each play, which ranks 127th out of 136. Yes, Army and Navy are lower/slower, but not many other teams.

HOWEVER, and again I think some of this is situation driven because they're almost always winning, but Ohio State is dead last. 136th out of 136. Vanderbilt, who is a Top 10 team, is 131st. So I don't think this directly correlates to winning or offensive production. There is more than one way to skin a cat. Last year, we were 77th in this number. So it wasn't exactly hyperspeed there either.

Again, I don't think the problem is pace. Some could disagree, and that's OK, I'm not saying I'm right. I'm not saying pace = production, but if you want to argue we should go faster, I'll agree because what we're doing isn't working.

But Ohio State, again, is dead last. They're 25th in yards per play. We're 55th. So slow isn't necessarily bad, but if you're slow AND inefficient, maybe try to switch it up? I do think though the staff understands they have a championship defense and perhaps their line of thinking is, we can win games with that side, so possess the ball, obviously try to score points but don't sacrifice quick punts to do it, and keep our defense fresh because that's our superior unit? Just spitballing. Obviously it'd be ideal to be Top 10 on both sides, but there's probably a reason very few teams historically are. You usually need to play complementary, and scoring 50 and allowing zero probably only exists on XBox. Again, thinking/typing out loud.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

We for sure helped Cam - case in point the fumbling issues are back when we curbed them big time. Cam’s 4 year stats though were nearly identical to each other before he got to us so he was a pretty consistently productive player.

If this is because Mirabal is running the run offense then Dawson needs to walk into Mario’s office with a cut up of tape and say you’re paying me $1.5m a year let me do my fkn job lol

It's not. And again, we had a whole thread on this last week, so I don't want to get too in depth here, but that's not how teams operate. The entire staff collaborates on the offensive plan. Mirabal doesn't hand Dawson a piece of paper and says "Here are your running plays". Coaching staffs don't work like that. This is a group effort, Mirabal is obviously involved because he needs to know what to teach, but this is Dawson's offense at the end of the day.

 

[90scane]

I'll keep hammering on the little things we need to do better:

Less penalties
Hit the check downs when they take away the deep pass BUT one on one with Moore/Daniels/Toney you have to throw it up.
Run 4WRs- Moore/Johnson/Toney/Daniels split wide.
Mix in some wildcat with Toney, who can pass, run, and catch so we don't need to rotate
Run tempo, especially when we get the Defensive rotation in a weak spot vs our rotation.
Turnover margin
Play the young kids because the season is long. Loved what I saw from Moore, Scroggins, Simpson, Pringle, CWH, Gilbert.

 

[Novacane32000]

I love Fletcher but Lyle is more of a breakaway threat and I hope he sees more carries. Pringle looks about as good or better than all the current backs but i realize that for various reasons he will not be getting more carries.

Yes- this offense is frustrating. Big plays win games and we are lacking big time here.

 

[edge]

Only one false start on OL. They intentionally try to make him jump and it worked. The other false start was on 87. And yes it killed the first drive.

Would love to see read option with Toney on 3rd or 4th and 1. Atleast that takes one or two guy out of the box. And even if Toney makes a mistake and pulls, I like his athleticism to still get the first.

Call me crazy, but I think this is the game Trader has a coming out party. He played 20 snaps last game, but the coverages were rolled against him. So he was in the game plan. SMU secondary straight sucks. Unleash this man please. He could change this offense. He needs more snaps than Marion this game.

 

[JHallCanes]

There’s “ball control, staying on time, being efficient” etc

And then there’s flirting with Iowa levels of lack of explosive plays

We’ve played some tough defense so far but man…the 10+ yard plays in particular is sickening

That’s working way too hard for first downs and I think it’s why the fans backlash about the grind mode is so strong

Anyway stating the obvious but thank you for these every week good or bad

 

[One9]

I don't have data as far as 2024 Fletcher vs Martinez explosive runs, but just off memory, I think both kids did a good job getting 10+ yard carries.

2024:
Martinez - 24 carries of 10+ yards on 160 att. (13 carries of 15+ yards)
Fletcher - 17 carries of 10+ yards on 112 att. (8 carries of 15+ yards)

2025:
Fletcher - 17 carries of 10+ yards on 109 att. (8 carries of 15+ yards)

 

[skyman]

I love Fletcher but Lyle is more of a breakaway threat and I hope he sees more carries. Pringle looks about as good or better than all the current backs but i realize that for various reasons he will not be getting more carries.

Yes- this offense is frustrating. Big plays win games and we are lacking big time here.

You think Pringle will wait 3 years for carries?

 

[Suhrthing]

Considering how well this OL protects the passer these passing stats are just unacceptable. Beck and WR's (outside of Baby Jesus) need to get in the game.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

2024:
Martinez - 24 carries of 10+ yards on 160 att. (13 carries of 15+ yards)
Fletcher - 17 carries of 10+ yards on 112 att. (8 carries of 15+ yards)

2025:
Fletcher - 17 carries of 10+ yards on 109 att. (8 carries of 15+ yards)

Thanks for that.

So Martinez had a 10+ yard explosive rate of 15%.
A 15+ yard explosive rate of 8.1%


Last year, Fletcher was at 15% for 10+ yards
7.1% of 15+ yards.

Almost identical.

This year, almost 16% of 10+ yards and 7.4% of 15+ yards.

Basically the exact same. I guess the issue then is those 0-10 yard runs. Because we’re not giving up negative runs. But the YPC is way down. The backs are still getting the same explosives. But I assume those 6-8 yard runs are 4-6 yards this year.

 

[OrangeBowlMagic]

Considering how well this OL protects the passer these passing stats are just unacceptable. Beck and WR's (outside of Baby Jesus) need to get in the game.

Great point. I’ll try to find pressure rates but the sack rates are fantastic. As usual behind an OL here. And you’re 100% correct, if you’re not getting pressured you can’t be poor throwing the ball.

 

[DMoney]

Great post but I think you overstated it when you said "this offense stinks."

I agree we aren't national championship-caliber on offense right now and we need to get a lot more explosive. But we've seen bad offenses. This offense is scoring at a decent clip (32nd) and ranks high on a lot of the advanced stuff because we don't lose yards or throw incompletions.

The fundamental issues are pretty clear and evident in the stats: we aren't explosive enough in the passing game, and teams can stack the box with impunity because we aren't scaring defensive coordinators. Improving that element is going to the key to any potential playoff run (or even getting there).