Walton and the draft

[bshaw28]

It's not Walton's "measureables" that are keeping him out of the top 4 rounds, it's his lack of production against anybody good.

NC State (7th rush defense in the country)- 19 carries, 120 yards, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh (17th rush defense in the country)- 14 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

I don't think production will be his issue. He has proven to be an excellent college back. The questions are (1) the injury; and (2) the unusual depth of the RB class.

My take is he's a Day 2 player without those issues. He still can go that high if his recovery moves quickly. Anything lower than the 4th would be robbery IMO.

I'd have to disagree. His lack of production is going to be a HUGE factor

I've posted this before, but 5.5 ypc is the magic number. 26 of 29 RB's taken in the first 3 rounds had a 5.5 ypc or better. 28 had 5.4 or better.

Mark Walton has a 5.1 career ypc. Of the 84 RB's taken in the last 4 drafts, Walton's ypc would rank 77th.

Yes he had big games against Pitt & NC St.

But he had 3.5 or less ypc in these games - FAU, Nebraska, Cincinnati, FSU, FSU, FSU, VT, VT, Clemson, UNC, UNC, GT, GT, Pitt, Wash St, ND, WVU, Duke

 

[Saltycane]

Todd Gurley tore his ACL in the 6th game of the season of his Jr. year and he still was taken #10 in the 1st round

Draftniks:
I know he has a kid but since this year's a bust, should he return for '18?
I had him figured for a second or third round pick. Now, I'm guessing, that would be a stretch...
Any comparable situations you recall?

Walton is no Tood Gurley.

 

[DTP]

It's not Walton's "measureables" that are keeping him out of the top 4 rounds, it's his lack of production against anybody good.

NC State (7th rush defense in the country)- 19 carries, 120 yards, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh (17th rush defense in the country)- 14 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

I don't think production will be his issue. He has proven to be an excellent college back. The questions are (1) the injury; and (2) the unusual depth of the RB class.

My take is he's a Day 2 player without those issues. He still can go that high if his recovery moves quickly. Anything lower than the 4th would be robbery IMO.

I'd have to disagree. His lack of production is going to be a HUGE factor

I've posted this before, but 5.5 ypc is the magic number. 26 of 29 RB's taken in the first 3 rounds had a 5.5 ypc or better. 28 had 5.4 or better.

Mark Walton has a 5.1 career ypc. Of the 84 RB's taken in the last 4 drafts, Walton's ypc would rank 77th.

Yes he had big games against Pitt & NC St.

But he had 3.5 or less ypc in these games - FAU, Nebraska, Cincinnati, FSU, FSU, FSU, VT, VT, Clemson, UNC, UNC, GT, GT, Pitt, Wash St, ND, WVU, Duke

Agreed. His production against good teams is mediocre outside of the NCSt and Pitt games in 2016. Miami, in general has struggled to run the ball against marquee opponents and that's mostly not Walton's fault but GMs are going to say "he tears up Toledo and drops a **** against Duke and FSU". Although he did have a nice receiving day against Duke. I think his receiving skills are going to have to be his bread and butter in the pros. More teams are going away from the power running offenses anyway. I'd say, right now with the injury, he's a 5th or 6th rounder unless somebody falls in love with him. A big senior year could vault him into second round consideration. Especially if he proves fully recovered from the ankle.

 

[tcgrad1014]

It's not Walton's "measureables" that are keeping him out of the top 4 rounds, it's his lack of production against anybody good.

NC State (7th rush defense in the country)- 19 carries, 120 yards, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh (17th rush defense in the country)- 14 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

I don't think production will be his issue. He has proven to be an excellent college back. The questions are (1) the injury; and (2) the unusual depth of the RB class.

My take is he's a Day 2 player without those issues. He still can go that high if his recovery moves quickly. Anything lower than the 4th would be robbery IMO.

I don't know what your standard is for "excellent college back." I suppose it's subjective, but I can't think of a game where if not for Walton Jr.'s performance we lose. There were definitely a couple of games like that with Johnson Jr.

 

[bshaw28]

It's not Walton's "measureables" that are keeping him out of the top 4 rounds, it's his lack of production against anybody good.

NC State (7th rush defense in the country)- 19 carries, 120 yards, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh (17th rush defense in the country)- 14 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

I don't think production will be his issue. He has proven to be an excellent college back. The questions are (1) the injury; and (2) the unusual depth of the RB class.

My take is he's a Day 2 player without those issues. He still can go that high if his recovery moves quickly. Anything lower than the 4th would be robbery IMO.

I don't know what your standard is for "excellent college back." I suppose it's subjective, but I can't think of a game where if not for Walton Jr.'s performance we lose. There were definitely a couple of games like that with Johnson Jr.

I think the subjective part is the whole thing.

Walton's measurables & production are very similar to Yearby. There's a huge gap between Walton & Duke in both areas. When comparing the 3 it's painfully obvious.

BUT - I think getting 2 RB's (Yearby & Walton) back to back who were Top 100 recruits, who both "dominated Dade", and who both didn't live up to their billing is a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow.

I don't even think people are purposely doing it - but admitting we got the short the short end of the stick on the great run of South Fla RB's the last couple years + admitting a RB can dominate South Fla while just being a solid college RB prospect is tough. So they try and convince themselves Walton is better than he is.

Just my theory - but I can't for the life of me figure out why people compare Walton to Duke when he's obviously more Yearby.

I think Duke not having that great of a pro career so far plays into people forgetting how ridiculously good Duke was in college.

 

[JgDaCane]

I can't see how on earth Walton leaves. He can improve his stock mightily coming back.

 

[brock]

It's not Walton's "measureables" that are keeping him out of the top 4 rounds, it's his lack of production against anybody good.

NC State (7th rush defense in the country)- 19 carries, 120 yards, 3 TDs
Pittsburgh (17th rush defense in the country)- 14 carries, 125 yards, 1 TD

I don't think production will be his issue. He has proven to be an excellent college back. The questions are (1) the injury; and (2) the unusual depth of the RB class.

My take is he's a Day 2 player without those issues. He still can go that high if his recovery moves quickly. Anything lower than the 4th would be robbery IMO.

I don't know what your standard is for "excellent college back." I suppose it's subjective, but I can't think of a game where if not for Walton Jr.'s performance we lose. There were definitely a couple of games like that with Johnson Jr.

I think the subjective part is the whole thing.

Walton's measurables & production are very similar to Yearby. There's a huge gap between Walton & Duke in both areas. When comparing the 3 it's painfully obvious.

BUT - I think getting 2 RB's (Yearby & Walton) back to back who were Top 100 recruits, who both "dominated Dade", and who both didn't live up to their billing is a hard pill for a lot of people to swallow.

I don't even think people are purposely doing it - but admitting we got the short the short end of the stick on the great run of South Fla RB's the last couple years + admitting a RB can dominate South Fla while just being a solid college RB prospect is tough. So they try and convince themselves Walton is better than he is.

Just my theory - but I can't for the life of me figure out why people compare Walton to Duke when he's obviously more Yearby.

I think Duke not having that great of a pro career so far plays into people forgetting how ridiculously good Duke was in college.

Duke had a good year 1, ok year 2 and is having an excellent year 3 actually. He and njoku are the browns most talented offensive players and best playmakers

 

[DTP]

I think Duke Johnson is probably the opposite of Walton when it comes to NFL scouts. The only thing that kept Duke off the board for the first two rounds were his measurables. He's shorter than Walton and about 20 lbs lighter. Production was never a problem for Miami's all time leading rusher though.

 

[DMoney]

Production was never a problem for Miami's all time leading rusher though.

Walton was on pace to be our all-time TD leader by the end of the year. He was considered the best back in the ACC by a mile. Production is not the issue.

The concerns with him will be the injury, RB depth in the draft and less-than-elite measurables.