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Vision Vestige

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xbobdog said:
Fantastic write up.

It would be interesting to see how our statistics shape up as the season progresses...
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For sure! The one I'm looking forward to is seeing our 3rd down conversions WAY up. That will lead to points, and ultimately wins.
 
Vision, great write up, I'm definitely interested how this new staff corrects the flaws of the team!!
 
Cane Dynasty said:
[MENTION=5374]HurricaneVision[/MENTION]

I like the look at last years #'s. But I'm having a struggle figuring out how they are relevant now with a different rooster and a different coaching staff running completely different schemes this year.

Genuinely curious
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It's a valid question. Here is what I was trying to show:

What areas was last year's team deficient, and if the team was deficient, what can be done to change things? I also wanted to demonstrate where players were efficient, and maybe where they were not.

It was intended to be a mix of descriptive metrics and then spin them into hopefully predictive metrics for this season. Sometimes things happen as a victim of chance, but sometimes you can delve into metrics to confirm items that you believe you saw with your eyes.

When analytics and scouting come together in agreement, it is generally a sign that you can confidently use the information in your analysis.
 
I'm visually oriented. Can you add some graphs and provide a PowerPoint presentation we can download?
 
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That was a **** ton of words but really well worth the read. Extremely informative, well researched, well done, and an incredible amount of effort. Terrific job.
 
Fantastic post. ****.

And yeah, please don't change anything. If someone can't take the time to read it, they don't deserve the information.
 
HurricaneVision said:
I'm always wondering if I should split my writing into more than one post. Feedback welcomed.
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Bro....you hit that out of the park. Absolutely fantastic post. Very analytical and extremely informative. You basically gave us the statistical representation of Golden and staffs incompetence while providing the contextual evidence for expecting major improvement. Excellent work sir. Very well done!
 
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HurricaneVision said:
Cane Dynasty said:
[MENTION=5374]HurricaneVision[/MENTION]

I like the look at last years #'s. But I'm having a struggle figuring out how they are relevant now with a different rooster and a different coaching staff running completely different schemes this year.

Genuinely curious
Click to expand...

It's a valid question. Here is what I was trying to show:

What areas was last year's team deficient, and if the team was deficient, what can be done to change things? I also wanted to demonstrate where players were efficient, and maybe where they were not.

It was intended to be a mix of descriptive metrics and then spin them into hopefully predictive metrics for this season. Sometimes things happen as a victim of chance, but sometimes you can delve into metrics to confirm items that you believe you saw with your eyes.

When analytics and scouting come together in agreement, it is generally a sign that you can confidently use the information in your analysis.
Click to expand...

I've only been back for a few weeks but this has to be the best thread of the year.

What I think most of us like about it is that it quantitatively confirms what our eyes were seeing last season. Those penalty statistics are unreal.

Alex Gall and Stacy Coley combined for 9 penalties between the two of them and that's just the tip.

Next question:

I know this probably took you a long time to put together but do you have any analysis on special teams from last season?

I'm especially interested what our coverage #s looked like.
 
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Novacane32000 said:
HurricaneVision said:
Yds per play is definitely a good stat to use, but I wasn't trying to evaluate how last year's team fared so much as I was trying to determine where they struggled and what can happen to change those areas.

Turnover correlation year-to-year is around .30, which means you can only explain away 30% of the "noise" so that is just not statistically significant. We will undoubtedly regress towards the mean in turnovers caused, but that doesn't mean we will regress in turnovers we experience. It simply means the amount of potential turnovers gained will regress.

Really the metric that has some correlation with turnovers is sacks per dropback. I suspect we will see a big increase in that number this year.
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Based on the UM stats from last year, if you hid the team and had me guess the W-L record I'd say 6-6 at best. Not sure how we won 8 games with these numbers.

Scoring O #71
Scoring D #77

Total O #67
Total D #69

1st Downs #93
1st Downs allowed #103

Penalties #128 (last)
Penalties by Opponent #41

Sacks #64
Sacks allowed #34

TFL #96
TFL allowed #8 (not bad)

3rd Down Conversions #107
3rd Down conv allowed #67

Red Zone TD % #111
RedZone TD % for opponents #58
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Makes me want to throw up.
 
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This thing has got legs.. who would have known in this place.

Does metrics factor in heart, desire and will?

I appreciate numbers as much as my stat's classes in college. It did not account for the cop gun to my head though. And I am a white guy.

We will win, when our Defense becomes tough. When they rule the field. O makes point's. Defense makes the other team pay the toll to play.
 
1983canes said:
This thing has got legs.. who would have known in this place.

Does metrics factor in heart, desire and will?

I appreciate numbers as much as my stat's classes in college. It did not account for the cop gun to my head though. And I am a white guy.

We will win, when our Defense becomes tough. When they rule the field. O makes point's. Defense makes the other team pay the toll to play.
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I appreciate you posting the other side of the coin without being dismissive of numbers.

You're absolutely right that numbers only tell so much and what's inside often makes the difference when it's 50/50 etc. The great thing is Richt seems to understand that part better than most and has married the coaching staff to it.

Coaches almost always believe in analytics; they just don't realize it. How often have you heard a coach talk about wining the turnover battle and cite the percentage of winning when you do? Or, they talk about staying ahead of the chains, which is really just a pseudo name for success rate.

Numbers without execution and desire will fall flat. Execution and desire without success will fall flat. Add talent, competent coaching, and a desire to play for the man standing next to you, and you have a team.
 
1983canes said:
This thing has got legs.. who would have known in this place.

Does metrics factor in heart, desire and will?

I appreciate numbers as much as my stat's classes in college. It did not account for the cop gun to my head though. And I am a white guy.

We will win, when our Defense becomes tough. When they rule the field. O makes point's. Defense makes the other team pay the toll to play.
Click to expand...

The numbers will show when our team becomes tough on D. Look at the top D teams from last year.

Top Teams Total D

#3-Bama
#4-Mich
#7-GA
#9-OSU
#10-Clem
#11- App st (Dang-didnt realize they were that good)
#69-Miami
 
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Novacane32000 said:
1983canes said:
This thing has got legs.. who would have known in this place.

Does metrics factor in heart, desire and will?

I appreciate numbers as much as my stat's classes in college. It did not account for the cop gun to my head though. And I am a white guy.

We will win, when our Defense becomes tough. When they rule the field. O makes point's. Defense makes the other team pay the toll to play.
Click to expand...

The numbers will show when our team becomes tough on D. Look at the top D teams from last year.

Top Teams Total D

#3-Bama
#4-Mich
#7-GA
#9-OSU
#10-Clem
#11- App st (Dang-didnt realize they were that good)
#69-Miami
Click to expand...

Had we played App State's schedule last year our D would have ranked, much, much..... oh nevermind. We'd have still ranked 69.
 
ThomasM said:
Novacane32000 said:
1983canes said:
This thing has got legs.. who would have known in this place.

Does metrics factor in heart, desire and will?

I appreciate numbers as much as my stat's classes in college. It did not account for the cop gun to my head though. And I am a white guy.

We will win, when our Defense becomes tough. When they rule the field. O makes point's. Defense makes the other team pay the toll to play.
Click to expand...

The numbers will show when our team becomes tough on D. Look at the top D teams from last year.

Top Teams Total D

#3-Bama
#4-Mich
#7-GA
#9-OSU
#10-Clem
#11- App st (Dang-didnt realize they were that good)
#69-Miami
Click to expand...

Had we played App State's schedule last year our D would have ranked, much, much..... oh nevermind. We'd have still ranked 69.
Click to expand...

LOL ! I hear you. App st played only 1 Power 5 Conf team.

BTW, our ranking vs non P5 schools (we played 2) as compared to the rest of the country #87 . Pathetical
 
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Like all have said... "Very impressive write up." Sir.

Getting to... "This year, I would expect to see the offsides, roughing the passer, and facemask penalties go up. Aggressive teams that are trying to shoot gaps will be offsides some. Facemasks are just probabilities. Roughing the passer comes from a need to hit the QB in this offense. Hopefully they keep it in check, but I wouldn’t expect the overall number to rise much this year on the defensive side. I could even see the defense getting more aggressive while actually committing fewer penalties."

God, I hope so... I don't mind seeing more roughing the passer penalties. Understand I don't want to see anybody permanently hurt... But I do want to see guys laying on the ground, shaking their heads.... saying WHAT HAPPENED ?
 
Novacane32000 said:
HurricaneVision said:
Yds per play is definitely a good stat to use, but I wasn't trying to evaluate how last year's team fared so much as I was trying to determine where they struggled and what can happen to change those areas.

Turnover correlation year-to-year is around .30, which means you can only explain away 30% of the "noise" so that is just not statistically significant. We will undoubtedly regress towards the mean in turnovers caused, but that doesn't mean we will regress in turnovers we experience. It simply means the amount of potential turnovers gained will regress.

Really the metric that has some correlation with turnovers is sacks per dropback. I suspect we will see a big increase in that number this year.
Click to expand...

Based on the UM stats from last year, if you hid the team and had me guess the W-L record I'd say 6-6 at best. Not sure how we won 8 games with these numbers.

Scoring O #71
Scoring D #77

Total O #67
Total D #69

1st Downs #93
1st Downs allowed #103

Penalties #128 (last)
Penalties by Opponent #41

Sacks #64
Sacks allowed #34

TFL #96
TFL allowed #8 (not bad)

3rd Down Conversions #107
3rd Down conv allowed #67

Red Zone TD % #111
RedZone TD % for opponents #58
Click to expand...

Just with the scheme changes, and coaching upgrade, I can't see any way all those numbers don't improve.

I thought it was a good post, but maybe breaking it down into separate ones for the offense, defense, and then penalties. It was a good read, just long.

I never knew how much a single penalty could matter, but even a couple of first downs on third and short, which have been lacking for years, would make a huge difference. More chances for our offense, fewer chances for their's, and the defense gets a rest.
 
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