Brad Kaaya gunning for it on fourth down. (Getty Images)
“Some teams will say it’s third-and-9, let’s try to take a shot downfield,” quarterback Brad Kaaya said. “Or, it’s third-and-11-plus, throw a screen pass or something like that. For us, coach will say, ‘We have four downs here.’ If we know we have four downs, we call a play that’s high percentage, that’ll get us five or six yards and get us in fourth-and-manageable.
“We’re not going to worry about getting all seven yards. We’re going to call a play that gets us fourth-and-1, fourth-and-2, fourth-and-3. Then on fourth down, we’ll call a play that we know is our money play, our play that’s going to get us a first down.”
Why aren’t Miami Hurricanes worrying as much about poor third-down performance?
CORAL GABLES — Make no mistake: the Hurricanes are not pleased about failing to covert on three-fourths (6 out 24) of their third-down chances. They’re trying to increase their success there.
But they aren’t as concerned as you might think.
Through two games, Miami ranks a paltry 118th in the nation on third down, succeeding on 6-of-24 chances. But only one team – Illinois – has taken and converted as many fourth-down chances as UM.
Both teams are tied for No 1 at perfect 5-for-5 in college Football.
Miami, which tied for 26th in fourth-down success last year (60.9 percent) and tied for 33rd in number of attempts (23), is going for it at a greater rate. Stretched out over a 13-game season, they’d wind up with 10 more attempts than last year.
Coach Al Golden said instead of going for it all on third down, he might call a higher-percentage play to increase his team’s chances on fourth.
It’s one of UM’s new offensive approaches, in addition to greater use of tight ends and H-backs, much more shotgun and pistol than under-center looks and increased use of backs in the passing game.
Offensive coordinator James Coley said Golden came to him before the season about the change. “He said, ‘Hey coach, are you good with me giving you four downs for a drive?’” Coley said, breaking into a smile. “I’m like, ‘Yeah.’ As an offensive coordinator, the last thing you want to hear is ‘Get the punting unit ready.’”
“Some people will look at that and say it’s sort of screwy, but a lot of teams are doing that now,” Coley said.
Though two September games isn’t necessarily a proper sample size to assess a nation-wide trend, there seems to be more momentum across college football toward going for it on fourth down.
The team that led the nation in fourth-down attempts last year, Washington State, has gone for it 12 times in two games. That’s a pace toward 72 over 12 games – and 32 more than their nation-high total of 40 from last year.
Behind Wazzu and Kent State (12), Oregon (10), Vanderbilt, North Carolina State, Houston, Baylor, Idaho, Bowling Green, Wyoming, Appalachian State and Georgia Southern (seven attempts each) have shown to be early risk-takers. Ahead of Miami, which is tied with eight other teams with five attempts, is Buffalo, New Mexico, Texas State, Kansas and Arizona (six each).
So fourth-down attempts are up. What about success rates?
Last year, 11 teams converted fourth downs at 70 percent or better. Three were at or above 80 percent. That’s a slight uptick from 2013, but falls close to the success rates of 2008-2012 (according to data on the indispensable CFBStats.com).
Through two games this year, 29 teams have 100 percent success – but only 11 of those teams have gone for it more than twice. The sample size is a bit too small, here.
So why is Miami going for it more on fourth down?
Golden said his confidence in his defense in the last year-plus is the reason he’s changed his thinking.
“With our defense, as our defense has improved over the last 15 games, so has our ability to go for it on fourth,” Golden said. “If it takes four downs, it takes four downs. They’re both money downs to us. If it takes two, that’s what we’ll do. We do need to catch the ball better on third down though, for sure.”
Kaaya, who said coach Ed Croson at West Hills (Calif.) Chaminade approached play-calling in a similar manner, said he likes getting an “extra” down – he doesn’t feel more pressure.
“Obviously, you have to have a lot of trust in your defense, which we do,” he said. “You have to trust we can get the ball back for us.”
Through two games, Miami ranks No. 1 in takeaways (seven) and turnover margin (plus-six).
It’ll be interesting to see if Brad Kaaya and his posse remain this bold as the schedule gets tougher.
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