Ty Simpson (is not yet in the portal)

It’s not just about the first-year salary. It’s about the entire guaranteed pay package. For example, a fully guaranteed 4-year, $16M contract is worth far more than a one-year college salary of $4M. If you return, get injured, and regress, you could end up losing millions you would have made. Stil might be worth it if you think you can play yourself into a top 10 pick because now you're talking about $10M+ a year.

Absolutely. And signing bonuses have to be taken into account as well.

Alternatively and theoretically though, if the likeliest outcome is a year one salary that is superseded by the money being offered to come back to college, and that draft position is viewed as “the floor” in 2027, then the (substantial) difference of being a top-10-15 pick vs a bottom 1st rounder has to be taken into consideration.
 
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the QBs who have gone in round 1 but outside the top 10 in the last five drafts

Jaxson Dart
Bo Nix
Kenny Pickett
Mac Jones
Justin Fields
Jordan Love

most of these guys played more college football than Simpson so they were more accomplished, but, to my eyes, on a pure talent level he is right in line w/ all these guys, Fields and perhaps Love aside. so I don't think the idea of Simpson getting unanimous or close to unanimous first round grades is that much of a bluff. the NFL has basically already told us where they value this type of player
 
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Miami Football Hello GIF by Miami Dolphins
 
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Top 5 picks will make $8M to $10M in year 1.
Picks 6-11 will make $5M to $7m in year 1.
Picks 12-15 will make $4M to $4.5M
Picks 16-32 will make $$2.9 to $3.6M
In a nutshell, if a QB isn't top 10, they would do well to play another year in college if they're getting > $4m
 
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