Transfer Team Rankings

[rustywalkedaway]

It’s going to be an insane few years as things settle out. I think it evens the top programs out tbh. But only the 15-20 who will pony up the money.

85 kids. If the going rate for a 5 star is 500k+ on average and a 4 star 100k+, for the top programs willing to fund that amount across 85 kids that probably 15-20M. A franchise like Bama or A&M will probably need 30+ to retain the roster they’ve got.

At most 20 or so programs will pony up that type of dough. You’ve got the SEC schools but probably only 5-6 once the market clearing price becomes better understood. You’ve got UT, maybe Oklahoma with the oil money, USC, Miami, OSU, Michigan (lower end), maybe ND, maybe a few more years at Oregon while Knight is around. Schools like FSU, Clemson and even UF and Auburn won’t be able to keep up over the long run.

And as you say, the top programs won’t be able to keep kids on the bench since those kids will want to play to keep their NIL pay up and.of course go to the NFL. So Bama and the like will be seeing more churn in both directions as they’d rather pay that Louisville WR the money than a unproductive kid they’d recruited out of high school who is still only potential.

I’m speculating. But it’s almost like a commodities market now more than a draft, as players and programs are being evaluated all year and trading up or down based on market demand. Do we have anyone who does options trading on staff?

Wild ride, no idea where it ends. But as long as Ruiz and the billionaires club continue to fund Miami NIL we have to be just out of the top 5 in terms of budget at this point. And being in So Florida becomes a huge advantage second time around with portal kids.

Thanks for the financial analysis. Appreciate the perspective.

Good overview piece: https://www.cbssports.com/college-f...r-portals-may-1-deadline-pauses-roster-churn/

 

[TheOriginalCane]

BAMA took 4 transfers last season and so far 5 this season. So what we are seeing is pretty much what we have always seen under coach Saban, attrition that comes from the recruiting process. We have had at least 16 players that have left through the magic portal this off-season we are still over the 85-man roster.

And the NCAA awarded an extra year for COVID and didn't count the 85 limit last year.

There are prices to be paid. We are all paying those prices.

 

[HOLISTIC CANE]

With Miami’s additions and counting via the portal, I think the defense is going to be relentless for four quarters and snatching the souls of offensive lineman.

 

[TUSKtimes]

And the NCAA awarded an extra year for COVID and didn't count the 85 limit last year.

There are prices to be paid. We are all paying those prices.

Absolutely correct. It has skewed the numbers in the portal as well. BAMA will always have 10+ players every season who will be told they won't play or some of these players will simply tell the head coach they want to leave and try to get on the field elsewhere. The kids just don't have to pay the price of waiting anymore. They can all move like they are graduate transfers.

 

[Kn[]_[]ckles3o5]

BAMA took 4 transfers last season and so far 5 this season. So what we are seeing is pretty much what we have always seen under coach Saban, attrition that comes from the recruiting process. We have had at least 16 players that have left through the magic portal this off-season we are still over the 85-man roster.

 

[JHallCanes]

It’s going to be an insane few years as things settle out. I think it evens the top programs out tbh. But only the 15-20 who will pony up the money.

85 kids. If the going rate for a 5 star is 500k+ on average and a 4 star 100k+, for the top programs willing to fund that amount across 85 kids that probably 15-20M. A franchise like Bama or A&M will probably need 30+ to retain the roster they’ve got.

At most 20 or so programs will pony up that type of dough. You’ve got the SEC schools but probably only 5-6 once the market clearing price becomes better understood. You’ve got UT, maybe Oklahoma with the oil money, USC, Miami, OSU, Michigan (lower end), maybe ND, maybe a few more years at Oregon while Knight is around. Schools like FSU, Clemson and even UF and Auburn won’t be able to keep up over the long run.

And as you say, the top programs won’t be able to keep kids on the bench since those kids will want to play to keep their NIL pay up and.of course go to the NFL. So Bama and the like will be seeing more churn in both directions as they’d rather pay that Louisville WR the money than a unproductive kid they’d recruited out of high school who is still only potential.

I’m speculating. But it’s almost like a commodities market now more than a draft, as players and programs are being evaluated all year and trading up or down based on market demand. Do we have anyone who does options trading on staff?

Wild ride, no idea where it ends. But as long as Ruiz and the billionaires club continue to fund Miami NIL we have to be just out of the top 5 in terms of budget at this point. And being in So Florida becomes a huge advantage second time around with portal kids.

This is good stuff

 

[DTP]

and it's only going to get worse. Will be 8-12 teams a year that will have a chance to compete, maybe even less. Everyone else will get left behind.

How many teams do you think had a chance to compete before? Just this last season, two of the four playoff teams got destroyed in their first round games. I’ll take 8-12 teams competing over 2 teams competing.

 

[grover]

BAMA took 4 transfers last season and so far 5 this season. So what we are seeing is pretty much what we have always seen under coach Saban, attrition that comes from the recruiting process. We have had at least 16 players that have left through the magic portal this off-season we are still over the 85-man roster.

You're back? To which "we" are you referring, the love of your life Alabama, or the Canes?

If you read what I wrote, it was projecting, not looking at right now.

Of course I could be wrong. But I just don't see 6-7-figure 5-stars riding pine for 2-3 yeas waiting their turn if they're any good. I think they transfer because the market will pay them more. And if they're not any good, they'll transfer because NIL deal at the program they're at will dry up.

There's a reason Nick Saban is complaining. It was all one way before (bad players getting booted for good). Now it's bidirectional.

 

[DTP]

Gaynor went to UNC? I must’ve been extra drunk that week

Mack Brown was too

 

[TUSKtimes]

How many teams do you think had a chance to compete before? Just this last season, two of the four playoff teams got destroyed in their first round games. I’ll take 8-12 teams competing over 2 teams competing.

Finding competing teams isn't that hard. They are always the ones with their face pushed up against the glass looking in at #5 and below. Nobody is going to crack the 4 team playoff code. And the 2 playoff teams who got exposed were newbies.

 

[hurricaneman]

Wild ride, no idea where it ends.

What I find interesting is you have booster money vs business money. The boosters have no return on investment to just pay a player to go to a school. They're basically burning cash for the bragging rights of their school, especially when those players end up being busts. Businesses can leverage the cost as marketing and potentially get a return on that investment, even if that player is a bust.

As the prices continue to rise I don't know how it will be sustainable for boosters. It's like some rich guy simply paying Tiger Woods to wear a shirt that says "John Doe is Awesome" competing against Nike who stands to make money off Tiger's name. Nike will win out in the long run.

 

[TUSKtimes]

You're back? To which "we" are you referring, the love of your life Alabama, or the Canes?

If you read what I wrote, it was projecting, not looking at right now.

Of course I could be wrong. But I just don't see 6-7-figure 5-stars riding pine for 2-3 yeas waiting their turn if they're any good. I think they transfer because the market will pay them more. And if they're not any good, they'll transfer because NIL deal at the program they're at will dry up.

There's a reason Nick Saban is complaining. It was all one way before (bad players getting booted for good). Now it's bidirectional.

If a 4 or 5 star QB is not starting, why are you under the assumption that he's not getting his NIL money? Bryce Young was a millionaire before he ever stepped on the field against Miami. Had he not won the Heisman or had he gotten beat out he was still a millionaire. Ty Simpson is our latest 5-star QB out of Tennessee. He knew before he ever got to Tuscaloosa that the guy in front of him just won the Heisman. He also knew that Jalen Milroes was 2nd string and plenty good enough to start. Milroes was our spring day MVP on offense.
Ty Simpson said he's he more than willing to wait his turn, which is what Bryce Young and his dad said when they got here. NIL money is NIL money, it's not the reason competitors want to compete against the best and win titles.

Coach Saban was also the first to say that the rich were going to get richer. Time and again he said Alabama players were making as much or more in NIL money. Our last recruiting class was #1 in the country until just a few days left in the early signing period. Now add the 5 talented guys we just brought in through the magic portal. Anyone could reasonably make the argument no one has done more in gathering elite talent this year than BAMA. Every time coach Saban goes out of his way to talk about the future of college football it's taken that someone is gaining on us. Every time, they are incorrect.

 

[grover]

If a 4 or 5 star QB is not starting, why are you under the assumption that he's not getting his NIL money? Bryce Young was a millionaire before he ever stepped on the field against Miami. Had he not won the Heisman or had he gotten beat out he was still a millionaire. Ty Simpson is our latest 5-star QB out of Tennessee. He knew before he ever got to Tuscaloosa that the guy in front of him just won the Heisman. He also knew that Jalen Milroes was 2nd string and plenty good enough to start. Milroes was our spring day MVP on offense.
Ty Simpson said he's he more than willing to wait his turn, which is what Bryce Young and his dad said when they got here. NIL money is NIL money, it's not the reason competitors want to compete against the best and win titles.

Coach Saban was also the first to say that the rich were going to get richer. Time and again he said Alabama players were making as much or more in NIL money. Our last recruiting class was #1 in the country until just a few days left in the early signing period. Now add the 5 talented guys we just brought in through the magic portal. Anyone could reasonably make the argument no one has done more in gathering elite talent this year than BAMA. Every time coach Saban goes out of his way to talk about the future of college football it's taken that someone is gaining on us. Every time, they are incorrect.

Bama is way out in front. They have the best coach in college football, and whether anyone will admit it or not, they built up a booster budget they were using to pay players with illegally for years with Emmert's tacit approval. So they've just legalized a network they've had in place just like A&M and Ohio State (where Urban Meyer heads up their NIL program!). They're not going anywhere.

I'm not even concerned about Bama, tbh. And whether or not they'll be able to keep the 85 blue chippers on roster now that the market is becoming transparent is moot. I think it's going to be harder and harder over time. But you may be right they'll be happy paying millions to guys sitting on the bench, who will be happy waiting their turn.

What matters most is that Miami made the cut of the 10-20 that will have the means to compete in this new paradigm. At least for as long as we have the billionaires club backing the program. Outside of Bama and a couple others, Miami can go punch-for-punch for the foreseeable future with all the other bigtime programs from a financial incentive perspective. We were not able to do that before, we were in the minor leagues. Given we can match with the money, all our other advantages are now differentiators. And we have a lot of differentiators.

 

[ddann]

Every time coach Saban goes out of his way to talk about the future of college football it's taken that someone is gaining on us. Every time, they are incorrect.

 

[X275]

If a 4 or 5 star QB is not starting, why are you under the assumption that he's not getting his NIL money? Bryce Young was a millionaire before he ever stepped on the field against Miami. Had he not won the Heisman or had he gotten beat out he was still a millionaire. Ty Simpson is our latest 5-star QB out of Tennessee. He knew before he ever got to Tuscaloosa that the guy in front of him just won the Heisman. He also knew that Jalen Milroes was 2nd string and plenty good enough to start. Milroes was our spring day MVP on offense.
Ty Simpson said he's he more than willing to wait his turn, which is what Bryce Young and his dad said when they got here. NIL money is NIL money, it's not the reason competitors want to compete against the best and win titles.

Coach Saban was also the first to say that the rich were going to get richer. Time and again he said Alabama players were making as much or more in NIL money. Our last recruiting class was #1 in the country until just a few days left in the early signing period. Now add the 5 talented guys we just brought in through the magic portal. Anyone could reasonably make the argument no one has done more in gathering elite talent this year than BAMA. Every time coach Saban goes out of his way to talk about the future of college football it's taken that someone is gaining on us. Every time, they are incorrect.

Someone watches Josh Pate

 

[AtlAtty]

If a 4 or 5 star QB is not starting, why are you under the assumption that he's not getting his NIL money? Bryce Young was a millionaire before he ever stepped on the field against Miami. Had he not won the Heisman or had he gotten beat out he was still a millionaire. Ty Simpson is our latest 5-star QB out of Tennessee. He knew before he ever got to Tuscaloosa that the guy in front of him just won the Heisman. He also knew that Jalen Milroes was 2nd string and plenty good enough to start. Milroes was our spring day MVP on offense.
Ty Simpson said he's he more than willing to wait his turn, which is what Bryce Young and his dad said when they got here. NIL money is NIL money, it's not the reason competitors want to compete against the best and win titles.

Coach Saban was also the first to say that the rich were going to get richer. Time and again he said Alabama players were making as much or more in NIL money. Our last recruiting class was #1 in the country until just a few days left in the early signing period. Now add the 5 talented guys we just brought in through the magic portal. Anyone could reasonably make the argument no one has done more in gathering elite talent this year than BAMA. Every time coach Saban goes out of his way to talk about the future of college football it's taken that someone is gaining on us. Every time, they are incorrect.

Did I stumble onto an Alabama message board? We don’t have to read, see and hear about Bama enough on national TV that we now have to read about a Bama on. Canes message board.
I’m not trying to be rude but if I wanted to know anything more about Bama football, I would just be on the ESPN homepage. Everyone is welcome here but the primary thing We all have in common is that we are fans of the Hurricanes. So while singing the praises of all things Bama football try to squeeze in a line or two about the Canes.

 

[GonzoCane]

It’s going to be an insane few years as things settle out. I think it evens the top programs out tbh. But only the 15-20 who will pony up the money.

85 kids. If the going rate for a 5 star is 500k+ on average and a 4 star 100k+, for the top programs willing to fund that amount across 85 kids that probably 15-20M. A franchise like Bama or A&M will probably need 30+ to retain the roster they’ve got.

At most 20 or so programs will pony up that type of dough. You’ve got the SEC schools but probably only 5-6 once the market clearing price becomes better understood. You’ve got UT, maybe Oklahoma with the oil money, USC, Miami, OSU, Michigan (lower end), maybe ND, maybe a few more years at Oregon while Knight is around. Schools like FSU, Clemson and even UF and Auburn won’t be able to keep up over the long run.

And as you say, the top programs won’t be able to keep kids on the bench since those kids will want to play to keep their NIL pay up and.of course go to the NFL. So Bama and the like will be seeing more churn in both directions as they’d rather pay that Louisville WR the money than a unproductive kid they’d recruited out of high school who is still only potential.

I’m speculating. But it’s almost like a commodities market now more than a draft, as players and programs are being evaluated all year and trading up or down based on market demand. Do we have anyone who does options trading on staff?

Wild ride, no idea where it ends. But as long as Ruiz and the billionaires club continue to fund Miami NIL we have to be just out of the top 5 in terms of budget at this point. And being in So Florida becomes a huge advantage second time around with portal kids.

Do we have anyone who does options trading on staff?

 

[Shogungts]

What I find interesting is you have booster money vs business money. The boosters have no return on investment to just pay a player to go to a school. They're basically burning cash for the bragging rights of their school, especially when those players end up being busts. Businesses can leverage the cost as marketing and potentially get a return on that investment, even if that player is a bust.

As the prices continue to rise I don't know how it will be sustainable for boosters. It's like some rich guy simply paying Tiger Woods to wear a shirt that says "John Doe is Awesome" competing against Nike who stands to make money off Tiger's name. Nike will win out in the long run.

But they were already doing that donating massive amounts of money to their schools - now instead of saying their name being on a building, they can say that they are responsible for the next Sean Taylor, Clinton Portis, Shockey, etc playing at their school. They probably will even find a way to make it a tax deduction.

 

[Shogungts]

It’s going to be an insane few years as things settle out. I think it evens the top programs out tbh. But only the 15-20 who will pony up the money.

85 kids. If the going rate for a 5 star is 500k+ on average and a 4 star 100k+, for the top programs willing to fund that amount across 85 kids that probably 15-20M. A franchise like Bama or A&M will probably need 30+ to retain the roster they’ve got.

If these numbers from an The Athletic article are to be believed, that $500K might be low, but your point absolutely still stands.

“This is the hierarchy,” said attorney Mike Caspino, who has represented dozens of recruits in their dealings with collectives and executed the contracts The Athletic reviewed. “Five-star quarterbacks: They’re getting $2 million a year. The next-most sought after players are D-linemen, edge rushers; they’re getting seven figures. The next is a stud offensive lineman with quick feet — they’re in the high six figures. Everyone else is a hodgepodge, but in the six-figure range.”

 

[Shogungts]

No, but listening to this book about the history of commodities trading and it is fascinating (especially given everything going on with oil, inflation, etc at the moment)

Amazon product ASIN B08SR5B22K