Wel said. I was thinking the same thing, particularly after reading about the UNC basketball player that wasn't projected as a first rounder, but could come back to school for 7 figures NIL.
It is just a different world. And it will be the haves and have nots. Even if you can find/develop a "hidden gem", you can't keep him. If you can recruit a supposed "stud", and he doesn't think he plays enough, immediately, you can't keep him either.
This puts interesting pressure on coaching staffs as they then have to really adjust on the fly, annually. That puts pressure on schools to keep coaching staffs in place so they can react with some continuity. Just think about all the pieces we have coming in and/or are hoping for, under a new staff. And how that has to work, immediately.
It’s going to be an insane few years as things settle out. I think it evens the top programs out tbh. But only the 15-20 who will pony up the money.
85 kids. If the going rate for a 5 star is 500k+ on average and a 4 star 100k+, for the top programs willing to fund that amount across 85 kids that probably 15-20M. A franchise like Bama or A&M will probably need 30+ to retain the roster they’ve got.
At most 20 or so programs will pony up that type of dough. You’ve got the SEC schools but probably only 5-6 once the market clearing price becomes better understood. You’ve got UT, maybe Oklahoma with the oil money, USC, Miami, OSU, Michigan (lower end), maybe ND, maybe a few more years at Oregon while Knight is around. Schools like FSU, Clemson and even UF and Auburn won’t be able to keep up over the long run.
And as you say, the top programs won’t be able to keep kids on the bench since those kids will want to play to keep their NIL pay up and.of course go to the NFL. So Bama and the like will be seeing more churn in both directions as they’d rather pay that Louisville WR the money than a unproductive kid they’d recruited out of high school who is still only potential.
I’m speculating. But it’s almost like a commodities market now more than a draft, as players and programs are being evaluated all year and trading up or down based on market demand. Do we have anyone who does options trading on staff?
Wild ride, no idea where it ends. But as long as Ruiz and the billionaires club continue to fund Miami NIL we have to be just out of the top 5 in terms of budget at this point. And being in So Florida becomes a huge advantage second time around with portal kids.
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