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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

I do not think the committee penalizes an 11-2 BYU team for losing its conference championship. I think they would get in over Miami in that hypothetical. Idle Miami (due to not making our conference championship assuming that happens) would not jump BYU.

Hopefully we jump Utah this week. Utah gives me a little bit of heartburn, but we should jump them if we win out and look good doing it (if not this week, Pittsburgh is the toughest remaining opponent either team faces, and Miami beating them should give the committee enough to bump Miami over Utah).

Just win (impressively) and pray.
 
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MiamiBusiness said:
I do not think the committee penalizes an 11-2 BYU team for losing its conference championship. I think they would get in over Miami in that hypothetical. Miami would not jump them by being idle due to not making its conference championship game (assuming we do not make it).

Hopefully we jump Utah this week. Utah gives me a little bit of heartburn, but we should jump them if we win out and look good doing it (if not this week, Pittsburgh is the toughest remaining opponent either team faces, and Miami beating them should give the committee enough to bump Miami over Utah).

Just win (impressively) and pray.
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Best thing that could happen is Cincy beating them this week. Tough game for BYU. They lose to cincy and that’s a wrap.
 
MiamiBusiness said:
I do not think the committee penalizes an 11-2 BYU team for losing its conference championship. I think they would get in over Miami in that hypothetical.
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11-2 after losing their conf championship would mean their best win is against Utah (by 3). Lost to TT twice and beat Stanford by 24 (compared to our 35 pt win)

We have the best win, but the worse losses
 
FL Cane said:
Putting aside the usual mopey doom and gloom on this board, people need to take an objective look at where we are and could end up for a CFP spot. Overall, Miami is still firmly in the running. The stats and metrics bear it out. Here's how.
  • Bama beating OU would indeed've been immensely helpful to our CFP odds. However, there are a few things to consider here. First, OU still plays Mizzou and LSU to end the year. Mizzou is going to be a very tough matchup for them. Very good defense and elite RB. OUs offense is also all John Mateer, and is somewhat one-dimensional. They needed everything to go their way yesterday against Bama. LSU also has talent and would love to play spoiler.

  • Bama has to go to Auburn and get a win. Talk to Bama fans right now, and they'll tell you they are very worried about that game. Doesn't matter how bad Auburn is; when they play at Auburn, anything can happen. Auburn also isn't as bad as their record is. Lots of one-possession games and they've got nothing to lose. Bama is also one-dimensional on O. Overall, don't count out an Auburn win here.

  • People keep talking a lot about BYU and Utah. For one, 10-2 Utah doesn't get in over 10-2 Miami. Our resume is far better. Additionally they still have to beat Cincy. 11-2 BIG 12 Runner Up, BYU also isn't getting in over us. They do not have a single comparable win to us on their schedule. The BIG 12 is a weaker conference than the ACC, incredibly. The real concern here would be BYU beating Texas Tech in a rematch.

  • No ACCCG runner-up is getting in. All the potential runner-ups, at best, would be 10-3. It's either ACC Champ and Us, or just the ACC Champ.

    I have said for some time now that Miami and ND being 10-2 at the end of the year leads to three potential outcomes: Miami and ND both get in, Miami gets in over ND, or neither Miami nor ND gets in. The Committee has been clear about what its metrics are, which, in order of importance, are:
    • 1. Head-to-head results
      2. Results against common opponents
      3. Conference championships
      4. Strength of schedule
      5. Strength of record
      6. Quality wins (ranked wins)
      7. Game control/eye test
      8. Losses (quality of losses)
      9. Overall team résumé and performance metrics
  • This is the CFP's own selection criteria. Miami beating ND has the biggest effect of all other metrics. There is no diminishing return or significance for Miami's W because it was earlier in the year. Second, right now, we have the edge on results against common opponents. We beat NCST by a larger margin than ND. ND plays Syracuse and Stanford next, 28 and 35-point wins for us. SOS and SOR are washes. We have more ranked wins than they do, 3 to their 2 at the moment. They have better losses but, again, one of those losses is to us head-to-head. All in all, if it comes down to it, people are really overestimating the committee just throwing their own criteria out the window for ND. You can make a clear argument for 10-2 Miami over 10-2 ND. To do the reverse, you'd need to make a contorted and nonsensical argument for ND. Additionally, 5 of ND's wins by the end of the year - half of them - will have been against teams that are not bowl-eligible.
All in all, we need to keep winning in blowout fashion. Because, if it comes down to it for the last spot between us and ND, we are more likely than not to secure that spot based on the actual criteria and metrics.
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I have no faith in us getting in over a ND with the same record even though we should just like we should have been in over Bama last year and Bama was placed ahead of us. They’ll change the values within their criteria to put a 2 loss ND, Bama or similar in over us. Also, if Oklahoma runs the table they deserve to be in IMO.
 
I agree with you about ND. If we're both 10-2 to finish the season, their own considerations basically require them to put us in over ND.

If they don't, they'll be going against their most basic qualification. Same records. We have the head to head AND better quality wins.

We'll know a lot come Tuesday.. I'm assuming the committee will have us jump Vandy. That'll be a sign they want us in.
 
FL Cane said:
That's basically where it leads. We need to beat Pitt by the same margin as ND beat them, or by more. And yes, the Committee would set a massive and detrimental precedent.
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it would force their hand dramatically and although I'm usually pretty pessimistic about our chances against a bigger brand. if we dominate the next two games, the fundamental principle of football would have to win out

people like klatt, the pff guys, etc are already saying it. it's going to get louder as we get closer if we take care of business
 
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I think this week will say it all. If it's the eye test, this game we just played will be the benchmark. We just dominated a team that took GT to the woodshed on offense. Add in our head to head match up with an SEC team in UF that just took Ole Miss to the last few minutes of the 4th quarter and beat Texas (add in we held them to under 150 as well). You have to imagine we move up a bit. Let's see though. I'm happy to see this team dominate the remaining two games in this same fashion. Away games and two ACC foes that have historically been a pain in our *** would be nice too.
 
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Coaches poll is out. Miami can’t get ranked above an overrated Vandy on a bye or above a ****** Utah.

GT stays the same as does Notre Dame.

AP poll not out yet.
 
Runpasskickscore said:
All of those things about Miami and ND are already true and ND is 9 and Miami is 15.
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true and listen I'm saying they still might do it BUT if we win like we did yesterday two more times you'll see them get creative in finding a way to get us in because not putting us in would legitimately destroy the sanctity of college football

has anyone ever got left out over another team when they held H2H, common opponent performance, and the same record?
 
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RVACane said:
They’d justify a 3 loss ND being a neck and neck decision over a 2 loss Miami
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agree that they likely will if it's truly down to us vs them

but I think they may find a way to get us both in out of hopes of destroying OOC entirely
 
IndayArtHauz said:
Just disagree with me, I don’t need compliments.

What about the standard is insane? We’ve beaten one team that’ll be ranked, we lost to two unranked teams, one of them at home. Is the standard perfectly fair? Not a chance, but you get a lot farther in life by facing the reality of the deck stacked against you than complaining that the game isn’t fair.

Miami walked right back under the shadow it has created over Mario’s tenure by losing to inferior squads in the middle of the season. We were getting first place votes after beating USF, as we should have. Then you step under the shadow you constructed and embody every reasonable doubt and become just another 2 loss squad.

That is Miami’s issue: there are 8 teams just like you now. 8 teams with a case, vying for 2-3 spots. You lose just one of those games and you’re special, you’re in the playoff. Instead, you’re going to finish 4th or below in one of the worst P4 conferences. You have one very good win and two mediocre losses. You aren’t special, you aren’t Bama, you knew this, and this is why you aren’t getting in.

What’s the flaw in my argument other than you’re tired of having it?
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The LVille loss was tolerable. But to lose to SMU, who has baaaad losses on their record, was inexcusable. Mario and staff knew this and did nothing to fix the issues in the two weeks between LVille and SMU. All we got were argumentative comments from the OC…..who ironically is now running more of what some of us had been calling for weeks ago. They did this to themselves.
 
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