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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

Forgot Vanderbilt didn’t play this weekend. If we don’t jump them in the CFP rankings after looking good against NC State, it’s a wrap.
 
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Genghis Cane said:
Everyone else is allowed to. Nothing against you, because you’re a great poster, but I’m tired of this argument.

Yes, we shouldn’t have lost those games. But we’re the only team held to this insane standard.

You could argue last year that we hadn’t beat anyone. That argument doesn’t work this year.
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Alabama lost to FSU and Oklahoma - in.
Notre Dame lost to us - in.

We apparently have to be perfect.
 
franchiseboi said:
I'm surprised people are assuming Oklahoma takes care of business these next 2 weeks and gets in over us. They were dreadful yesterday against Bama, I think they had the lowest post-game win expectancy of any team who won yesterday. They won because of Bama sloppiness/turnovers. They actually DROPPED 3 spots in SP+ yesterday (below Miami) despite beating Bama.

They also play a solid Missouri team that has a very good defense and maybe the best RB in the country. Assuming they take care of that, they then play a talented LSU team that I'm sure would love to play spoiler. Those will be 2 good defenses that Mateer would have to face, and he's been pretty mid since the thumb injurty
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Sooners were dreadful yesterday. The offense is very mediocre. They play good D
 
rascon said:
At this point, the committee is rigged and caters to the P2. So if it comes to Alabama, OU and Miami, Miami will get the shaft.

But… I think if this weekend was the beginning of a change for Mario/Dawson as it relates to scoring and they add a little tempo and blow out VT and Pitt, it can create some much needed pressure on the committee to consider Miami over one or both of the SEC bubble teams.

I still have faith that IF we take care of our business and look good doing so, something will happen (the right upset) that will give us an opening.

We had the same opportunity last year. And we dropped the ball.


Last point, best believe that anything more than 1 loss for non P2 conferences is going to take a lot to get in future years, as the P2 schedule more in conference games and then will fill that last game or two with bottom dwellers. They already cancelling high profile games. Not just because of the extra conference game, but also for scheduling FIUs and FAUs.

Very little in the margins for proving a 2 loss ACC team is better than a 3 loss SEC team in the future.
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You may think it’s rigged and it very well may be rigged. But not a single person outside of the Miami fan base would argue that 10-2 Miami deserves to be in over 10-2 OU and Bama. Doesn’t matter if we beat VT and Pitt 100-0. That won’t change a thing.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
ND is in. Leave them out of the conversation. There are 6 teams for 2 spots:

OU
Bama
Vandy
BYU
Utah
Miami
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if usc beats oregon they will be in the mix based on a ton of metrics the committee uses. not saying i like it but doesn't make me wrong

also remember the SMU rule- if you area ranked power 4 team (and have to be in the top 10 due to the conference champs rule) and you then lose your title game, you dont get penalized out of the playoff spot. so if byu/utah get to 10 and then lose to texas tech......
 
Genghis Cane said:
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Aside from LOSING vs 2 good teams, their best win is vs a #20 USC and they get up there in the top 5?

It’s as if they went 2-0 vs us and TAMU:

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We will have 2 common opponents/ NC ST (we won by more points) and Pitt to end the year.

I understand the power of the ND brand to unfairly, for Decades, makes them better than they are.

This is a 2% path. Need one of OU or Bama to lose, sadly.
 
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Putting aside the usual mopey doom and gloom on this board, people need to take an objective look at where we are and could end up for a CFP spot. Overall, Miami is still firmly in the running. The stats and metrics bear it out. Here's how.
  • Bama beating OU would indeed've been immensely helpful to our CFP odds. However, there are a few things to consider here. First, OU still plays Mizzou and LSU to end the year. Mizzou is going to be a very tough matchup for them. Very good defense and elite RB. OUs offense is also all John Mateer, and is somewhat one-dimensional. They needed everything to go their way yesterday against Bama. LSU also has talent and would love to play spoiler.

  • Bama has to go to Auburn and get a win. Talk to Bama fans right now, and they'll tell you they are very worried about that game. Doesn't matter how bad Auburn is; when they play at Auburn, anything can happen. Auburn also isn't as bad as their record is. Lots of one-possession games and they've got nothing to lose. Bama is also one-dimensional on O. Overall, don't count out an Auburn win here.

  • People keep talking a lot about BYU and Utah. For one, 10-2 Utah doesn't get in over 10-2 Miami. Our resume is far better. Additionally they still have to beat Cincy. 11-2 BIG 12 Runner Up, BYU also isn't getting in over us. They do not have a single comparable win to us on their schedule. The BIG 12 is a weaker conference than the ACC, incredibly. The real concern here would be BYU beating Texas Tech in a rematch.

  • No ACCCG runner-up is getting in. All the potential runner-ups, at best, would be 10-3. It's either ACC Champ and Us, or just the ACC Champ.

    I have said for some time now that Miami and ND being 10-2 at the end of the year leads to three potential outcomes: Miami and ND both get in, Miami gets in over ND, or neither Miami nor ND gets in. The Committee has been clear about what its metrics are, which, in order of importance, are:
    • 1. Head-to-head results
      2. Results against common opponents
      3. Conference championships
      4. Strength of schedule
      5. Strength of record
      6. Quality wins (ranked wins)
      7. Game control/eye test
      8. Losses (quality of losses)
      9. Overall team résumé and performance metrics

  • This is the CFP's own selection criteria. Miami beating ND has the biggest effect of all other metrics. There is no diminishing return or significance for Miami's W because it was earlier in the year. Second, right now, we have the edge on results against common opponents. We beat NCST by a larger margin than ND. ND plays Syracuse and Stanford next, 28 and 35-point wins for us. SOS and SOR are washes. We have more ranked wins than they do, 3 to their 2 at the moment. They have better losses but, again, one of those losses is to us head-to-head. All in all, if it comes down to it, people are really overestimating the committee just throwing their own criteria out the window for ND. You can make a clear argument for 10-2 Miami over 10-2 ND. To do the reverse, you'd need to make a contorted and nonsensical argument for ND. Additionally, 5 of ND's wins by the end of the year - half of them - will have been against teams that are not bowl-eligible.
All in all, we need to keep winning in blowout fashion. Because, if it comes down to it for the last spot between us and ND, we are more likely than not to secure that spot based on the actual criteria and metrics.
 
Heartbreaking, we should / could be undefeated this year but its same old song and dance at Miami each year. Something has to change. Next year should be a easy schedule but realistically we loose a few of those games.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Everyone else is allowed to. Nothing against you, because you’re a great poster, but I’m tired of this argument.

Yes, we shouldn’t have lost those games. But we’re the only team held to this insane standard.

You could argue last year that we hadn’t beat anyone. That argument doesn’t work this year.
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Just disagree with me, I don’t need compliments.

What about the standard is insane? We’ve beaten one team that’ll be ranked, we lost to two unranked teams, one of them at home. Is the standard perfectly fair? Not a chance, but you get a lot farther in life by facing the reality of the deck stacked against you than complaining that the game isn’t fair.

Miami walked right back under the shadow it has created over Mario’s tenure by losing to inferior squads in the middle of the season. We were getting first place votes after beating USF, as we should have. Then you step under the shadow you constructed and embody every reasonable doubt and become just another 2 loss squad.

That is Miami’s issue: there are 8 teams just like you now. 8 teams with a case, vying for 2-3 spots. You lose just one of those games and you’re special, you’re in the playoff. Instead, you’re going to finish 4th or below in one of the worst P4 conferences. You have one very good win and two mediocre losses. You aren’t special, you aren’t Bama, you knew this, and this is why you aren’t getting in.

What’s the flaw in my argument other than you’re tired of having it?
 
we need to win against VT and Pitt by 30+ points and if that's the case, then logic will win out and they may include both us and ND but ya gotta imagine we'll get in

the down stream consequence of us not getting in would be massive

OOC games would legitimately be proven to not matter (therefore do we cancel all future OOC games against good teams?)
 
Handsome Squidbum said:
The refs picking up the PI flag called on Ole Miss was literally jaw dropping. I saw the flag, then the replay and told my buddy, “yeah can’t argue that one. Florida has a chance.” And then they decided it wasn’t PI. Wasn’t a review or anything - it was just the SEC refs saying, “Ole Miss isn’t losing at home to Florida tonight. That’s too embarrassing a loss and they might drop out of the playoff picture.”
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That is the 3rd time Florida has been hosed this year by SEC officials. Texas and Oklahoma are the only 2 teams that don't get protection if they are good because they don't have any clout within the league as bonafide SEC teams, they are treated as BIG12 teams
 
407cane said:
we need to win against VT and Pitt by 30+ points and if that's the case, then logic will win out and they may include both us and ND but ya gotta imagine we'll get in

the down stream consequence of us not getting in would be massive

OOC games would legitimately be proven to not matter (therefore do we cancel all future OOC games against good teams?)
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That's basically where it leads. We need to beat Pitt by the same margin as ND beat them, or by more. And yes, the Committee would set a massive and detrimental precedent.
 
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PennsylvaniaCane said:
Coaches poll is out. We moved up 1 spot (15). Bama still at 10. Texas didn’t even drop out of the top 20 (18). 3 or 4 sec teams still in top 25 with 3 losses. Oregon now at 5 or 6. So even if USC gives them second loss USC will jump us and Oregon will only drop to about 11 or 12. I know this isn’t the committee list but it shows a template of thought process.
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Must be nice to play in the SEC.
 
Genghis Cane said:
#14 Vandy — vs. Kentucky, @Tennesse (possible they drop one)

#13 Utah — vs Kansas State, @Kansas (don’t see them losing)

#12 BYU — @ Cinci, vs. UCF (possible)

#11 OU — vs Missouri, vs. LSU (possible)

#9 ND — vs. Syracuse, @ Stanford (unlikely)

#8 Oregon — vs. USC, @Washington (possible they lose…not sure we want USC to win, though)


Teams behind us that we need to lose: USC and Michigan.
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We want Oregon to beat USC! Gotta get USC out of the picture.
 
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