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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

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I could live with the Louisville loss but SMU really was inexcusable. They don’t have a defense. Dawson seems to have finally opened up the offense after the public criticism, but if he had done that earlier in the season likes we had been pleading, we’re a 1 loss team (probably undefeated). As it stands I think we are outside the playoffs even if we win out, so have to hope for an ACC miracle and we make it to the conference title game.
 
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FL Cane said:
OUs offense is just Mateer. Bama also completely **** the bed, and gave OU every opportunity to win that game. Mizzou is good and LSU has talent. Wouldn't assume OU wins out. Also, Bama has to go to Auburn. Bama fans will tell you they hate playing there. That 2023 Bama team needed a miracle to beat a terrible auburn team there.
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2021 was just as wild. Tank bigsby ran out of bounds like a bone head to stop the clock when bama had no timeouts. Then tua drove them 97 yards to send it to OT, where they won in 4OT.

Crazy stat: in both 2021 & 2023, at one point in each game Auburn had a 99.9% win expectancy and lost both.

So yeah, don’t chalk that one up as a bama win just yet.
 
Putting those old "how can we still win the coastal" threads to shame. We need more graphs and scenarios imo.
 
CityboyCanes4life82 said:
Alright fellas, here’s how the playoff setup actually works this year. Only five conference champs get auto-bids, the five highest-ranked conference champs. After that, the committee fills in the other seven at-large spots.

Right now, those auto-bids would come from:
  1. Big Ten
  2. SEC
  3. Big 12
  4. Probably James Madison (crazy right lol)
  5. ACC
After those five lock in, we’re basically looking at three spots left, and here is why:

6. Indiana, the Big Ten title loser at 11–1

7. The SEC title loser, either Georgia or Texas A&M

8. Oregon with only one loss

9. Ole Miss with only one loss


Now, about BYU. If they lose to Texas Tech again in the championship game, they’re out.

So once those shake out, the final three at-large spots are basically between:

Notre Dame
Miami
Oklahoma
Alabama

Here’s the part the committee can’t mess up:

If head-to-head actually matters like they claim, then Miami has to be ahead of Notre Dame this week. Period.

Oklahoma already beat Alabama, so by that same logic, Alabama should be out.

Now here’s the thing about bubble teams, and this is where it gets real simple. If you’re not a conference champion, then you’re automatically a bubble team. And when you’re a bubble team, head-to-head losses matter the most. You can’t cherry-pick it, you can’t spin it. It is what it is. If you lose head-to-head, you’re automatically eliminated. Bubble teams don’t get mulligans. You don’t get to dodge the conference title game, avoid the risk, and then act like you deserve the benefit of the doubt over teams that actually went out and won something.

And on top of that, you can’t say Notre Dame is one of the top eight teams in the country when Miami beat them head-to-head and they have the same exact record. How can you leave Miami out? Miami has the best win of any bubble team, a win over a team the committee is ranking insanely high. So how can Notre Dame be ranked top 10, used as the reason to prop up someone else’s resume, but Miami, the team that actually beat them, gets left out of the playoff? No other bubble team has a better win than Miami. None. That makes absolutely no sense.

And while we’re at it, common opponents matter too. Florida State beat Alabama. Miami beat Florida State. Alabama lost by multiple touchdowns. So again, it is what it is. If you’re a bubble team, everything counts: head-to-head, common opponents, margin, all of it. You can’t ignore that just because the helmet says Alabama.

Same thing with Alabama overall. It makes zero sense to have Alabama in the playoff when they already lost to Oklahoma. It’s one or the other. Either Oklahoma gets in, or Alabama is out. Simple. No mental gymnastics.

If they rank it correctly this week, Miami should be in a really good spot heading into the final weekend.
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Agree, 100% and well said. Two of the things the committee says matter most which is head-to-head and common opponents, Miami has the edge on Notre Dame and Alabama. So the committee better do their ******* job this week and rank it correctly.
 
scrantoncane said:
2021 was just as wild. Tank bigsby ran out of bounds like a bone head to stop the clock when bama had no timeouts. Then tua drove them 97 yards to send it to OT, where they won in 4OT.

Crazy stat: in both 2021 & 2023, at one point in each game Auburn had a 99.9% win expectancy and lost both.

So yeah, don’t chalk that one up as a bama win just yet.
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Nope, talking to one of my good friends who's a huge Bama fan, they are terrified that their CFP hopes rest on a game up there.

Playing Auburn at Bama? Zero concern from them. But up there, in Auburn? They hate it.
 
GeorgiaHurricane said:
Being favorites means nothing. Bama was the favorite yesterday over Oklahoma. GT and Virginia would beat BYU and Utah
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Absolutely absurd thing to say in 2025. I bet you still believe nonsense like "you are what your record says you are". The predictive metrics, the resume metrics, the human rankings all are in alignment that GT and UVA are fraudulent.
 
PennsylvaniaCane said:
Because we play in a joke of a conference where both teams who got in last year got embarrassed.
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How is that our fault? We scheduled one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. And Louisville and SMU are not bad teams. They would be bowl eligible teams in every single conference in the country.
 
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flips said:
For your mental health I do not recommend even hoping that Auburn does something that's good for them (and us) - beating Bama. I definitely don't recommend watching the game. Chances are they will do good stuff and the scoreboard will indicate at some point, "oh wow, they will obviously win this game," then they will not win it and you will be sad. They are Auburn. They never fail to do Auburn things.

I will personally just check the result of the game after it's over
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SEC officials won't let Auburn win like they did when they played Georgia
 
cway313 said:
Putting those old "how can we still win the coastal" threads to shame. We need more graphs and scenarios imo.
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How it would have been easy make the playoff: beat UL or SMU. how to make the playoff now: prayer
 
ALLoverCANE said:
Absolutely absurd thing to say in 2025. I bet you still believe nonsense like "you are what your record says you are". The predictive metrics, the resume metrics, the human rankings all are in alignment that GT and UVA are fraudulent.
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Sp+ has both of them right around 35, which feels about right
 
This is why I was soo ******* mad several weeks ago when folks were hyping the Stanford win. Three games into our acc schedule and we were already on the outside of the acc cg. The acc sucks and it'll be a cold day in **** when any acc team that didn't play in the championship gets into the playoffs. If you're in the acc, your only chance is to play in the championship game or win the conference. Couple years ago they found a reason to leave an undefeated conference champion out of the playoffs. We have to know this going into every season.. if there's any doubt, Miami will get left out.
Why do I care about the acc cg? Because it's the only sure path to get real consideration to get into the playoffs.. and even then it's still no guarantee. You can't be losing to mid acc teams and expect to get into the playoffs.
 
dycane said:
GTech has been no more lucky than anyone else. They happen to have one of the best players in the country, at the most important position, who literally wills them to wins. The guy should win the Heisman if they win out.
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That's just not true. They were gifted a W vs Wake and have a bunch of other close, fluky wins.

It's 2025, guys. We can be smarter about we think about these things. Every metrics of wins vs performance shows them as among the luckiest teams in the country.
 
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OrangeBowlMagic said:
Bama isn’t 100% guaranteed to be in. They still have to play auburn. Yes, they’ll be favored. No, it wouldn’t be in the top 100 of craziest upsets.

Bama at 10-2 is 100% guaranteed in. Absolutely. But they’re only -280 to make the playoff now, whereas ND is -4000. The reason is Bama has to play a tram with athletes. ND has to play middle school teams.
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Middle school teams where we only led 14-0 at half and tied 7-7 at half, at home.

How you win still matters. Maybe we’ll get lucky and blow the doors off the next 2 games and ND plays down or needs to get lucky. Yeah I know.
 
Genghis Cane said:
How is that our fault? We scheduled one of the toughest non-conference slates in the country. And Louisville and SMU are not bad teams. They would be bowl eligible teams in every single conference in the country.
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We can only control what we can. And that was running the table, or maybe losing 1 game, in a conference where we have an absolute ridiculous talent advantage in all aspects of the game except coaching. We aren’t even going to make it to our conference championship game. Again.
 
franchiseboi said:
I'm surprised people are assuming Oklahoma takes care of business these next 2 weeks and gets in over us. They were dreadful yesterday against Bama, I think they had the lowest post-game win expectancy of any team who won yesterday. They won because of Bama sloppiness/turnovers. They actually DROPPED 3 spots in SP+ yesterday (below Miami) despite beating Bama.

They also play a solid Missouri team that has a very good defense and maybe the best RB in the country. Assuming they take care of that, they then play a talented LSU team that I'm sure would love to play spoiler. Those will be 2 good defenses that Mateer would have to face, and he's been pretty mid since the thumb injurty
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I saw that SP+ ranking.
 
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