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MEGA There’s Still Hope for the ACCCG/CFB Playoffs Mega Merge Thread

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On the look ahead lines, Alabama -5.5 @ auburn

We need SEC chaos. Auburn will be a tough out in the Iron Bowl. Night game (I assume, usually is), stadium packed, chance to knock Bama out of the playoffs.

Miami Pitt game will likely be over by then. It could come down to the 8pm game on the last day of the regular season to see if we get in.
 
aleahy said:
There is also a lot of games left. I wouldn’t assume OU and Alabama win out. Bama hasn’t been good on the road under DeBoer. OU win yesterday with 200 yards of offense. Missouri and LSU aren’t easy wins. Lots of games left.
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I think Auburn has a chance to beat Bama this year. Not a great chance but still a decent one. Maybe LSU can beat OU. I have zero faith is Mizzou
 
aleahy said:
They value 25 Miami differently than 24 SMU.
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No they don’t. They saw we lost 2 games to teams who would be sub .500 in the SEC or Big10. We proved them right. Same Miami. All the talent in the world and can’t even win the ACC. Not only can’t win it but now can’t even make the championship game.
 
aleahy said:
Do you think 10-2 ND gets in over 10-2 Miami? I don’t.
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Same here. Just don't see how they rationalize it. The argument is basically yeah, ND has two good losses and won ten straight (ignoring the fact that four of those wins are against the worst teams in the SEC, B1G, and ACC + the second worst ACC team), earning them a spot. But by the same principle, it means Miami has a good win against ND. and we would've won 9 out of our next 11.

I think people are really really overestimating the committee putting in a 10-2 over a 10-2 that they lost to.
 
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I'm surprised people are assuming Oklahoma takes care of business these next 2 weeks and gets in over us. They were dreadful yesterday against Bama, I think they had the lowest post-game win expectancy of any team who won yesterday. They won because of Bama sloppiness/turnovers. They actually DROPPED 3 spots in SP+ yesterday (below Miami) despite beating Bama.

They also play a solid Missouri team that has a very good defense and maybe the best RB in the country. Assuming they take care of that, they then play a talented LSU team that I'm sure would love to play spoiler. Those will be 2 good defenses that Mateer would have to face, and he's been pretty mid since the thumb injurty
 
aleahy said:
There is also a lot of games left. I wouldn’t assume OU and Alabama win out. Bama hasn’t been good on the road under DeBoer. OU win yesterday with 200 yards of offense. Missouri and LSU aren’t easy wins. Lots of games left.
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OUs offense is just Mateer. Bama also completely **** the bed, and gave OU every opportunity to win that game. Mizzou is good and LSU has talent. Wouldn't assume OU wins out. Also, Bama has to go to Auburn. Bama fans will tell you they hate playing there. That 2023 Bama team needed a miracle to beat a terrible auburn team there.
 
FL Cane said:
Same here. Just don't see how they rationalize it. The argument is basically yeah, ND has two good losses and won ten straight (ignoring the fact that four of those wins are against the worst teams in the SEC, B1G, and ACC + the second worst ACC team), earning them a spot. But by the same principle, it means Miami has a good win against ND. and we would've won 9 out of our next 11.

I think people are really really overestimating the committee putting in a 10-2 over a 10-2 that they lost to.
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Head to head matters after all games are played. Miami and OU would have head to head wins in that 10-2 pod. That has to matter. If not, ***** the whole sport. That 10-2 should go down to Bama/ND. I’m not as pessimistic as many on here.
 
For your mental health I do not recommend even hoping that Auburn does something that's good for them (and us) - beating Bama. I definitely don't recommend watching the game. Chances are they will do good stuff and the scoreboard will indicate at some point, "oh wow, they will obviously win this game," then they will not win it and you will be sad. They are Auburn. They never fail to do Auburn things.

I will personally just check the result of the game after it's over
 
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aleahy said:
Head to head matters after all games are played. Miami and OU would have head to head wins in that 10-2 pod. That has to matter. If not, ***** the whole sport. That 10-2 should go down to Bama/ND. I’m not as pessimistic as many on here.
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Same. I think people are just being mopey per the usual on this board. Ultimately, Miami and Notre Dame have similar metrics. However, we have more ranked wins and the head-to-head. Also, if we finish the year on a four game tear in blowouts, it will be very very hard to keep us out. And no, ACCCG runner up isn't getting in. No ACC runner up is finishing better than 10-3.
 
We own tiebreakers against ND (H2H) and Bama + Texas (common opponent) and I have no confidence of us being ranked ahead of the three of them in the event we all win out.

Edit: I guess Bama would be SEC champ in that case (?), so guess they wouldn’t apply.
 
Genghis Cane said:
Why is everyone else allowed to lose games but us? I understand your point, but we’re not Ohio State. We’re not going to kill everyone.

Go look at the records of teams in the top 15. Most teams have “bad” losses or close wins against bad teams.

Seems we’re held to a higher standard than a lot of other teams.
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Because we play in a joke of a conference where both teams who got in last year got embarrassed.
 
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