Awsi Dooger
Junior
- Joined
- Jan 20, 2012
- Messages
- 2,662
If you think the competitive landscape, table stakes and differentiators are the same today as back then, youre wrong.
Exactly. The powerhouse programs severely underachieved at the same time Miami was flourishing. We conveniently ignored that as if it didn't matter. Bear Bryant got old. Woody Hayes got old and senile. Notre Dame was making uninspired choices of its own like Gerry Faust and later Bob Davie and Tyrone Willingham. USC had a 20 year lull prior to stumbling upon Pete Carroll. I could keep going. Really only Oklahoma among the long time national powers was going strong in the '80s under Switzer and then again with Stoops in 2000. We may delight to mock the Sooners but bottom line they won the title in two of our best seasons...1985 and 2000.
Whenever it was a supposed upset taking down the Canes in a huge game it was the likes of Penn State 1986, Notre Dame 1988, Alabama 1992 and Ohio State 2002. How can anybody be shocked to lose to programs of that caliber? That's why I always spotlight long term and big picture instead of nitpicking personnel specifics. I always expected to defeat Florida State when it mattered. But the pedigreed programs scared the heck out of me.
More recently you've had a recruiting sophistication and consequently a monopolization at the top from elite programs that are now full blast. When Alabama and Ohio State are recruiting at this level then it almost requires a 2001 type team to handle them. Again, check the power ratings. That math dictates one result after another. I still see geniuses here proclaiming 10+ wins next season for Miami even though we are 25 points from where we need to be.
I moved to Las Vegas to bet sports in 1984. I would not do the same in 2019. The terrain is not remotely similar and it reminds me somewhat of recruiting shift over the same time period. I had easy pickings in 1984. Power ratings were virtually non existent other than the major sports. When the sportsbooks decided to book a lesser sport like golf or Olympics they had no idea what the **** they were doing. It was subjective flailing galore and consequently mistakes galore. Difficult not to laugh. Harrah's banned me from betting golf. Posters here like Cane Dynasty preferred the myth that Las Vegas has always been all-knowing and non-erring. Sure, it may look that way it you merely plop in a seat and stare at one game. Or if you swoon to conventional wisdom. But if you were doing the legwork and got to know the tendencies of every sportsbook then the gaffes were glaring. Year after year. It was simply a matter of math and value, playing one bad number against another bad number. These days with painted numbers and so few independent books the guys actually have to pick winners. I have no idea how they accept that type of obstacle. It's the reason I am primarily in stocks.
I mention the Las Vegas stuff only because recruiting old timers no doubt would relay the same type of thing. The recruiting services are similar to power ratings. Instead of sparse and flawed now they have soared in number and accuracy. Additions like position specific test scores help diminish the high profile error. Sleeper cells can only win so many games. And even then it's mostly irrelevant because it won't repeat.
Tinkerbell offense is not the answer. Tinkerbell offense won't come close to making up 25 points. As a USC alum I'm not interested in Urban Meyer for his offense. I would be thrilled that he'd construct a team that could go shoulder to shoulder with an Alabama roster. Miami never even threatens to look the part. It is hilarious. Urban Meyer wherever he went in college football would prioritize SPARQ caliber athletes and also install legitimate defensive intensity instead of the cupcake versions preferred by Mike Leach and so many other frauds touted here every season.
Crowd coaches are the rule. By Miami standards as defined by this board, every coach is favored to fail. They are not awful or all-time worst coaches, as so often denounced. They are Crowd coaches. The next one beyond Diaz is big likelihood to be another Crowd coach. My best dodge suggestion from a Miami perspective would be to hire someone whose responsibility is to get a feel for the nation at all levels in terms of whispered up and coming coaches, whether it's the minor leagues like the Jim Tressel route or mid major like Urban Meyer. Take your sharpest young guy and give him that role. Make sure he has his priorities in order and not merely another cupcake type who thinks 20 rushes per game is sufficient. I like the idea earlier in this thread that Miami focus on analytics. If you've got a young evaluator with that type of math background and focus there's a greater chance he knows what he is doing than some subjective clown. Have a priority list at all times and don't be quick to adjust the list. If someone elevates to #1 there should be a solid power rating reason he tops the list. If your young evaluator keeps ping ponging the list week to week then he's not capable of this role and should be gone.