The Defensive Stats I think matter most

[Biltoc24]

Our issues are with things we can control. Bad 3rd down defense at times, poor angles, and missed tackles. All in all I love the defense. You live and die with the aggression off blitz’s. The offense has let them down. Lack of push in run blocking, dropped passes, and Rosier being so streaky. Maybe we have to complement the run game with short passes or bubble screens to open up the rest.

 

[LuCane]

Since this is now breaking off into multiple threads. I'm going to begin the conversation here as to something specific:

Is there one "best way" to measure an effective defense?

To me, it's the one that gives the team, taking the offense into consideration, the best chance to win. So, how do we break that into numbers? Here's my view and then some of you guys can continue to argue about how we have a "bad" defense.

1. Scoring defense - This is really what matters
2. Yards per play - Yards are important, sure, but we need context as to how many plays are being run.


3. Turnovers - Do they openly contribute to our field position and our ability to put points on the board?
4. 3rd down percentage - Can you get off the field to give your offense more advantages?

On #1 above, we are #23 in the country. This isn't an incredible statistic, but it surely isn't "bad" or "average." We are what we are so far: above average.

On #2 above, we are #16 in the country. Even today, where we allowed what seemed like a million yards to a bad team, we allowed about 4.6 yards per play on 93 plays. This was approximately 24 more plays than what UNC has averaged on the season.

To me, the two above are by far the most relevant defensive measures of success.
On #3 above, after this week, we'll probably be around #35 or better. This is a bit of a fickle statistic, but important in terms of what the defense can produce.

On #4 above, we need to get much better. We're in the bottom half of the NCAA. Although in ACC play, we're somehow far better. Today, we were at 33%.

Have at it. We're not nearly as bad as some have described. We need some work. No doubt. We miss tackles. We sometimes over-blitz. We sometimes get caught on blitzes with no chance of getting home. We take some poor angles. Yet, we still have held it together so far this season. What will occur going forward I have no idea. But, I wanted to make this post for some of the debates on the defense being "bad" and even "historically bad."

Great post but I don't quite understand who exactly is claiming our D to be bad or historically bad? Has that been a narrative on the board? If so I have missed it.

What you described above in terms of the defense is spot on. Our defense has done an incredible job taking into account the fact our O can't stay on the field and our lack of depth in the secondary. Also #23 in scoring defense is better than above average. It's in the top 20%. Our yards per play on defense has also been very good. Sure there are things they can improve on the most important being the ability to get of the field on 3rd down. One more stat I want to throw out there. Defensively against the pass we are in the top 6 nationally in yards per attempt allowed. That in amazing.

You missed post game. There were multiple threads going multiple pages each. I used this thread to try to unify some of the debates.

 

[supacane]

It seems clear to me we are putting more emphasis on creating havoc and turnovers. We stunt and blitz more than any other team I see. When we get into the red zone we are gap sound, so we probably could play that way all the time but we would have less big plays

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk

 

[FrancisSawyer]

It seems clear to me we are putting more emphasis on creating havoc and turnovers. We stunt and blitz more than any other team I see. When we get into the red zone we are gap sound, so we probably could play that way all the time but we would have less big plays

Sent from my SM-G935T using Tapatalk

I'm glad you pointed that out. I would think that going up against a team like ND we will cut back on the blitzing/havoc and emphasize discipline and gap integrity. Having said that I don't really have an issue with the defense generally speaking. For these 2 games coming up it will be the offense that determines the outcome. The offense will have to do their share of the work from the beginning of the game if we are to win.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

Our issues are with things we can control. Bad 3rd down defense at times, poor angles, and missed tackles. All in all I love the defense. You live and die with the aggression off blitz’s. The offense has let them down. Lack of push in run blocking, dropped passes, and Rosier being so streaky. Maybe we have to complement the run game with short passes or bubble screens to open up the rest.

I agree and while we're at it let's get those bubbles and short passes to our explosive playmakers like Richards, Thomas, Berrios, Homer, Dallas and Herndon. We don't need to be throwing bubbles to Cager, Langham or Harris. Speaking of Langham, let's use the kid in the passing game in the first 58 minutes of the game. He is a huge target that has stepped up and earned more pt. What happened to going over the middle to Langham? He's perfect for those routes but we rarely run them.

Also is it just me or does it seem that Richt has too many toys(weapons in the passing game) and can't figure out how to use them all. I also think youth and inexperience have a lot to do with the disjointed, feast or famine nature of this offense. Rosier despite being in his 4th year has only one start prior to this year. Now add to that Richards is only a Soph and has a bad hammy. Jeff Thomas, Mike Harley and Dallas are true freshman. Mullins is a true Soph and before this year Homer and Langham never played. That gives us Herndon and Berrios as the only seasoned veterans among offensive skill players both being 4th year true Seniors.

I fully realize that this OL needs to get deeper and much better especially in the run game as they are the foundation but I also see offensive issues that exist regardless of the OL situation. I think Richt is keeping things as simple as possible in order to maximize the youngsters ability to execute. I believe we are seeing the laying of the basic foundation of what could eventually be an extremely potent and multi dimensional offense with many moving and interchangeable parts. The bad news is its not going to happen soon enough to satisfy the fan base. The good news is that I do not believe we are as far away from that goal as may seem to be the case. There is so much potential on offense and with the infusion of OL and WR/RB/TE talent that is coming via the 2018 class that potential only increases.

To sum it up my point is that this offense can be incredibly frustrating to watch but all of this live game experience will serve major dividends next year and beyond. Also in watching this offense play I notice that we seem to be so close to making some plays that we don't make and just inches away from making the plays that are not being made. This offense will gel. The question is how long will it take. While the shortcomings on the OL will lower our offensive ceiling this year, I still believe that we are not so far away from watching this offense explode on some completely unsuspecting defense this year. Next Saturday would be an ideal time but we will see. Until then I will enjoy the victories however they come.

 

[The Franchise]

The defense did an OK job yesterday, and they've been pretty good most of the year. I can't wait till we can have a season where we're not blaming one side of the ball for our foibles as a team.

Stats, as always, can be misleading. Lu looked at the 3rd down defensive stats, which were OK (against a horrible offense) and wondered why we let them run 94 plays when we were pretty good on 3rd down D.

One problem Diaz had before he got here was giving up a lot of 2nd and longs. We can't only focus on 3rd down D being OK and then automatically blame the offense for keeping the defense on the field for 94 plays. The defense likely gave up too many conversions on 2nd down. I'm not going to look that up because it's not important enough to me.

Regardless, a good defense would have completely dominated that version of UNC's team. We wouldn't be looking to blame the offense for keeping them on the field too much. It should have been a 3 and out festival all day long against that horseshyt offense led by a 3rd string cripple and missing all of their production from last year and even from earlier this year. We should have completely smothered them from start to finish and given up basically nothing.

The offense was horrible yesterday, but the defense gave up way too much too regardless of some quoted stats. Neither played at an acceptable level. And our Punter continues to kick like his right leg is paralyzed.

 

[edge]

LuCane,
Thanks for the write up. Agreed on all points.

The only thing that has me pulling my hair out about Diaz, is the last two 4th quarters. It is plain as day that both QB's were just willing to run the ball. They had a scramble first, throw second mind set. Is our defensive philosophy not one that allows for a QB spy? My very basic thinking here is cut out the blitzes, make the QB stay in the pocket, and have a spy waiting when he decided to run. What are your thoughts on this? Our defensive stats would be myriads better if we would stop allowing the QB to run around like Usain Bolt in that last quarter of the game.

 

[Ibis Wingz]

I appreciate Lu's analysis, but the defense, while making plays when it really matters, has not lived up to the expectations I had for it going into the season. I haven't analyzed the defense or the stats and don't know the exact problem, but I was expecting the defense to completely shut down opponents and that hasn't happened. I am stunned by how many big plays we give up every week, especially in the running game.

And I saw better punters yesterday on optimist football fields than our punter.

 

[KrazyCane]

If we had even a remotely competent offense this defense would be treated like royalty. Great post.

I disagree... the defense was getting torched the entire 1st half against a depleted UNC offense. Had nothing to do with the other side of the ball.

Torched for 6 points? Unacceptable.

Yeah bc it's UNC they couldn't finish drives thankfully....we could've easily been blown out in the 1st quarter if it was a more capable team we were playing against.

 

[KrazyCane]

If we had even a remotely competent offense this defense would be treated like royalty. Great post.

I disagree... the defense was getting torched the entire 1st half against a depleted UNC offense. Had nothing to do with the other side of the ball.

UNC ran approximately 24 more plays than what they have averaged this season. They did this despite only converting 33% of their third downs today. You find that to be a coincidence?

Not sure what game you were watching KrazyCane, that was a very poor offensive game. So poor I have to wonder if we were worried about Homer getting hurt, in addition to Rosier who got banged up. We gave up on the run, and Rosier was completely off.

We didnt start doing a good job of getting them off the field until the 2nd half.... they were 4/9 on 3rd down conversions going into the half or something like that.

In the 1st quarter they were moving the ball on us at will... that had nothing to do with our offense not being able to sustain drives. That became an issue but initially the defense and Diaz only have themselves to blame for how they played against a depleted offense.

 

[edge]

If we had even a remotely competent offense this defense would be treated like royalty. Great post.

I disagree... the defense was getting torched the entire 1st half against a depleted UNC offense. Had nothing to do with the other side of the ball.

Torched for 6 points? Unacceptable.

Yeah bc it's UNC they couldn't finish drives thankfully....we could've easily been blown out in the 1st quarter if it was a more capable team we were playing against.

Have to disagree. The goal line stand was all about our defense and little about their offense. We buckled up and were the better team on those 4 downs.

 

[KrazyCane]

If we had even a remotely competent offense this defense would be treated like royalty. Great post.

I disagree... the defense was getting torched the entire 1st half against a depleted UNC offense. Had nothing to do with the other side of the ball.

Torched for 6 points? Unacceptable.

Yeah bc it's UNC they couldn't finish drives thankfully....we could've easily been blown out in the 1st quarter if it was a more capable team we were playing against.

Have to disagree. The goal line stand was all about our defense and little about their offense. We buckled up and were the better team on those 4 downs.

It was a lot of both going on imo.... UNC bit themselves in the foot but also our defense played up to their potential and buckled down at the last minute but they should've never got gashed up the field so easily to begin with.

I just think a better defensive strategy would've fielded better results. Also lb coaching (Diaz) is nowhere near the standard that our other assistant coaches have set for their defensive units.

 

[ShadowSpring]

Our issues are with things we can control. Bad 3rd down defense at times, poor angles, and missed tackles. All in all I love the defense. You live and die with the aggression off blitz’s. The offense has let them down. Lack of push in run blocking, dropped passes, and Rosier being so streaky. Maybe we have to complement the run game with short passes or bubble screens to open up the rest.

I agree and while we're at it let's get those bubbles and short passes to our explosive playmakers like Richards, Thomas, Berrios, Homer, Dallas and Herndon. We don't need to be throwing bubbles to Cager, Langham or Harris. Speaking of Langham, let's use the kid in the passing game in the first 58 minutes of the game. He is a huge target that has stepped up and earned more pt. What happened to going over the middle to Langham? He's perfect for those routes but we rarely run them.

Also is it just me or does it seem that Richt has too many toys(weapons in the passing game) and can't figure out how to use them all. I also think youth and inexperience have a lot to do with the disjointed, feast or famine nature of this offense. Rosier despite being in his 4th year has only one start prior to this year. Now add to that Richards is only a Soph and has a bad hammy. Jeff Thomas, Mike Harley and Dallas are true freshman. Mullins is a true Soph and before this year Homer and Langham never played. That gives us Herndon and Berrios as the only seasoned veterans among offensive skill players both being 4th year true Seniors.

I fully realize that this OL needs to get deeper and much better especially in the run game as they are the foundation but I also see offensive issues that exist regardless of the OL situation. I think Richt is keeping things as simple as possible in order to maximize the youngsters ability to execute. I believe we are seeing the laying of the basic foundation of what could eventually be an extremely potent and multi dimensional offense with many moving and interchangeable parts. The bad news is its not going to happen soon enough to satisfy the fan base. The good news is that I do not believe we are as far away from that goal as may seem to be the case. There is so much potential on offense and with the infusion of OL and WR/RB/TE talent that is coming via the 2018 class that potential only increases.

To sum it up my point is that this offense can be incredibly frustrating to watch but all of this live game experience will serve major dividends next year and beyond. Also in watching this offense play I notice that we seem to be so close to making some plays that we don't make and just inches away from making the plays that are not being made. This offense will gel. The question is how long will it take. While the shortcomings on the OL will lower our offensive ceiling this year, I still believe that we are not so far away from watching this offense explode on some completely unsuspecting defense this year. Next Saturday would be an ideal time but we will see. Until then I will enjoy the victories however they come.

Excellent and well thought out post.

 

[M5canes]

Solid Post, OP. Let’s hope the offense gets some grit, innovation, and somehow the light comes on.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[KrazyCane]

I appreciate Lu's analysis, but the defense, while making plays when it really matters, has not lived up to the expectations I had for it going into the season. I haven't analyzed the defense or the stats and don't know the exact problem, but I was expecting the defense to completely shut down opponents and that hasn't happened. I am stunned by how many big plays we give up every week, especially in the running game.

And I saw better punters yesterday on optimist football fields than our punter.

I really am starting to think it's a Diaz issue bc we should be a lot better than we are on defense. Coming into the season most thought our defense would be able to carry the team primarily. That is nowhere near the reality of what's going on.

The defense is as inconsistent as our offense. If we break down the coaching on that side of the ball, we know it's not Coach Kool he's legit, we know Coach Rumph is doing work with the cornerbacks.

But why does McCloud look so awful?.. why has the linebacker play been one of the most inconsistent units on the entire team?? Who is our linebacker coach.... Diaz. Why are our blitz schemes so terrible in terms of when we call for it and where the blitz comes from??... who is the DC? Coach Diaz.

The problem isn't personnel... it's Coach Diaz imo.

 

[DerekDohrman]

the only stat that matters is that we dont play anymore of our games this season in october.

richt dominates november & beyond at miami

 

[OrdunaDrive]

The defense did an OK job yesterday, and they've been pretty good most of the year. I can't wait till we can have a season where we're not blaming one side of the ball for our foibles as a team.

Stats, as always, can be misleading. Lu looked at the 3rd down defensive stats, which were OK (against a horrible offense) and wondered why we let them run 94 plays when we were pretty good on 3rd down D.

One problem Diaz had before he got here was giving up a lot of 2nd and longs. We can't only focus on 3rd down D being OK and then automatically blame the offense for keeping the defense on the field for 94 plays. The defense likely gave up too many conversions on 2nd down. I'm not going to look that up because it's not important enough to me.

Regardless, a good defense would have completely dominated that version of UNC's team. We wouldn't be looking to blame the offense for keeping them on the field too much. It should have been a 3 and out festival all day long against that horseshyt offense led by a 3rd string cripple and missing all of their production from last year and even from earlier this year. We should have completely smothered them from start to finish and given up basically nothing.

The offense was horrible yesterday, but the defense gave up way too much too regardless of some quoted stats. Neither played at an acceptable level. And our Punter continues to kick like his right leg is paralyzed.

The punter needs to grow up in a hurry. We've been fortunate enough for a long while to have really strong punters, and it really sucks to watch these 20 yards ducks.

As for the D, completely dominating an offense usually happens when the other team gives up, and they usually give up when you score 3 or 4 touchdowns in a row. Or if you're most of the Big 10. Since the latter isn't true, and the former didn't happen, UNC had a glimmer of hope, and played their tails off. If our offense scores more off of those turnovers, I think the game turns into a route like Va Tech had the week before; they didn't, and UNC kept scratching and clawing.

The offense needs to visit Pai Mei. They're under the impression that their outstanding, and that is simply not the case.

 

[kryptonite]

If we had even a remotely competent offense this defense would be treated like royalty. Great post.

I disagree... the defense was getting torched the entire 1st half against a depleted UNC offense. Had nothing to do with the other side of the ball.

Torched for 6 points? Unacceptable.

Yeah bc it's UNC they couldn't finish drives thankfully....we could've easily been blown out in the 1st quarter if it was a more capable team we were playing against.

You mean like Syracuse? Maybe GT? fsu?

It's not a great way to do things, but we've been playing the same way all year and winning. You have to give credit to the D- they get torched, but they tighten up in the redzone.

 

[LuCane]

I appreciate Lu's analysis, but the defense, while making plays when it really matters, has not lived up to the expectations I had for it going into the season. I haven't analyzed the defense or the stats and don't know the exact problem, but I was expecting the defense to completely shut down opponents and that hasn't happened. I am stunned by how many big plays we give up every week, especially in the running game.

And I saw better punters yesterday on optimist football fields than our punter.

I think almost all of us had too high of expectations for the defense, the sophomore LBs, what the new Safeties could replace the two NFL guys, etc.

That said, I also think the point of this thread holds up: we're not looking at an average defense, much less a "bad" or "historically bad" defense. I don't find that supported by any evidence.

 

[McGahee2TheHouse]

LuCane,
Thanks for the write up. Agreed on all points.

The only thing that has me pulling my hair out about Diaz, is the last two 4th quarters. It is plain as day that both QB's were just willing to run the ball. They had a scramble first, throw second mind set. Is our defensive philosophy not one that allows for a QB spy? My very basic thinking here is cut out the blitzes, make the QB stay in the pocket, and have a spy waiting when he decided to run. What are your thoughts on this? Our defensive stats would be myriads better if we would stop allowing the QB to run around like Usain Bolt in that last quarter of the game.

Some of the "delayed blitzes" that many on here are complaining about were actually QB spies.