Takeaway from the coach’s roundtable on ESPNU

[bshaw28]

I've made some posts before...but the depth at WR on those teams are crazy. LSU also had Mitchell. Clemson also has Ngata and has had Hunter Renfrow. Alabama had Smith on that 17 team as well. 15 Alabama also had Ardarius Stewart (3rd Round pick). 14 Ohio State had Devin Smith (2nd Round pick) and Noah Brown (drafted). 13 FSU had Rashad Greene, an NFL draft pick. 12 Alabama had Kevin Norwood.

So, not just studs...in some cases, multiple studs...but depth too. Multiple NFL caliber WRs.

We're going into next year trotting out Mike Harley and Wiggins. Fine enough players...but we're not talking the same thing here. In an area like Miami-Dade County to have what we have now and of recent vintage at WR is pretty shameful. Its ONE (of many) reasons why we can not compete. Bad QBs...average WRs...bad to below average OL play. Like...is there any questions as to why we are such ****. Coaching is big, but, its not like we're rolling out guys like that.

I agree with you - Miami's #1 WR's are nice players, but are probably only competing for the #3 WR at Clemson, Bama, OSU, etc. It's a totally different level.

Ahmon Richards is the only guy we've had that's in that conversation. For all the "What went wrong with the 2018 team" conversations - in my mind losing Richards was the #1 factor. I think it's very underrated how huge of a blow that was to our offense. It's a shame that injury ended his career.

Add in these top teams have QB's like Tua, Lawrence, Burrow, Hurts, Watson, Winston - plus RB's like CEH, Etienne, Jacobs, Zeke, Henry, Freeman.

When I look at our QB/WR/RB - I think the gap between Miami and the big boys is larger than fans want to admit, and the gap between Miami and Coastal teams like UNC, Pitt, etc. is smaller than fans want to admit.

 

[The Franchise]

All things being equal, QB has been, and always will be, the spot of all spots. Get a great QB here, combine him with a good OC, and you'll be amazed how much better everything and everyone looks.

 

[HurricaneHauk]

A great OC is more important than a great QB

Rosier had us at 10-0 and the guy was garbage, imagine we had a real spread offense with rosier, probably would have made him look good

 

[CaneGng13]

Not buying this. Wide receivers come a dime a dozen. When our line play is dominate we’ll be good again.

OL doesn’t have to dominate when the ball is out quick. Remember how Miami fans cried about Searles? His line wasn’t a problem at UNC last year because the ball is out by 2 Mississippi’s. As for our WRs, turn on any college game and you’ll see guys making tough catches our guys drop the most easiest ones

 

[DMoney]

All things being equal, QB has been, and always will be, the spot of all spots. Get a great QB here, combine him with a good OC, and you'll be amazed how much better everything and everyone looks.

Yep. The most important positions in football are the passer and the pass-rusher. We have the latter in spades. Need the triggerman.

 

[brock]

I agree with you - Miami's #1 WR's are nice players, but are probably only competing for the #3 WR at Clemson, Bama, OSU, etc. It's a totally different level.

Ahmon Richards is the only guy we've had that's in that conversation. For all the "What went wrong with the 2018 team" conversations - in my mind losing Richards was the #1 factor. I think it's very underrated how huge of a blow that was to our offense. It's a shame that injury ended his career.

Add in these top teams have QB's like Tua, Lawrence, Burrow, Hurts, Watson, Winston - plus RB's like CEH, Etienne, Jacobs, Zeke, Henry, Freeman.

When I look at our QB/WR/RB - I think the gap between Miami and the big boys is larger than fans want to admit, and the gap between Miami and Coastal teams like UNC, Pitt, etc. is smaller than fans want to admit.

I agree with the qb part but also Scheme matters more than you want to admit too on the other hand in regards to the receiver and rb comment. You could have placed a host or dynamic players(tutu atwell, jeudy etc) in our offense The last 2 seasons and I guarantee they wouldn’t have been as productive as they were at their current schools. Scheme can make a big difference, look at how LSU offense changed and they immediately went from a mediocre offense that squandered elite talent to the best offense in the country. Wouldn’t be surprised if Miami’s offense take a significant step, we have very good talent at the skill positions(tight end and rb tilts the scale there) and imo we have good enough talent at receiver too but we ultimately will see either way next season

 

[2.0]

Mike Gundy was who I wanted after Richt retired.

I doubt Gundy ever leaves OK State

 

[bshaw28]

People often mistake "development" for "evaluation." For instance, Rousseau is more evaluation than he is "development." So are most of those other guys for that matter. That's one reason I like Likens as WR coach. I like his approach to recruiting and what's important to him, and I like his history of evaluation.

I'm definitely in the evaluation is more important than development camp. I think being able to identify and go after underrated guys, while also identifying and staying away from overrated guys is a bigger factor to success than "development".

Most stud players are pretty much studs from very early on, before they receive that much coaching.

I'm just saying if you're in the "development" camp - I'm not saying you're wrong - but I am saying surely there's at least 2 or 3 guys over the last 10 years you feel like were actually a product of "development". But I can't think of any player people consider a positive example of "development".

 

[DTP]

Then we can get into the discussion of how much of that "development" was just natural physical maturity and hard work by the player versus any magic pixie development dust by his coaches.

Of course. "Development" is a two way street. A player has to put in the time and effort. A coaching staff only gets so many hours to work with the kids. It's up to the players to determine how good they want to be. It's just like learning in school or learning a musical instrument. Your teacher has X amount of time a week to tell you what you need to know. It's up to you to go home and study and practice. You could have the best teacher in the world but if you don't study or practice, you're not going to ace the test.

 

[Rellyrell]

I never thought Dorsett was a 1st Round pick either. But even if he were taken in the 4th round, he would've well outplayed his recruiting ranking

Dorsett - Ranked #383 but drafted #28 overall
Hankerson - Ranked #367 but drafted #79 overall
Hurns - Ranked #515 & UDFA - but had best single season for a Miami WR ever, and is the only 1k yd NFL WR since Andre Johnson
Scott - Ranked #1,101 but played in the NFL 2 years

That's 4 overachieving WR's IMO. Why aren't they considered to be "developed"?

I'm getting off topic, but at other positions - Redwine, Njoku, Mike Jackson, Walford, Isadora, McIntosh, Isadora, Feliciano, Rousseau - all were drafted hundreds of spots above their recruiting rankings.

It seems weird to me that in the "development" discussion - we have all these overachieving players the last 10 years - but it doesn't seem like there's a single Miami player that people think was "developed" by the coaches. But if you look at other schools, these are the type of players people would point to as showing "good development".

U ever heard of the term “A Miami Guy?”

So let me back it up real quick w Dorsett:

Dorsett ran two sub 4.3’s at the combine. The NFL has been enamored w speed since forever. Even w ?able hands, they figured w that speed, they’ll work on his hands, his “potential” is there (And I’m going to go back to that word in a sec). It’s the same reason y Perriman, Ross, Menendez, Matthis, Goodwin all were drafted WELL above their collegiate production. Speed is a qualifier to be drafted, and I know fa sho, u ain’t never heard of Menedez or Matthis and u probably didn’t even know who John Ross was until the NFL Combine. Dorsett was drafted in the first round b/c not only did he wow the combine, but here’s a guy w speed AND he’s a Miami guy.

Miami has the reputation of putting out great prospects; and some guys were drafted based upon having that U on their helmet alone.
The staff did a great job in converting a 3 star WR in Njoku & converting him to TE. He became a physical freak, with great upside and questionable hands. Til this day he has questionable hands. But let’s address Walford & Njoku real quick:
What is Miami known for? TEs. ****, Jimmy Graham was drafted in the 3rd round after putting up a pedestrian 17 rec for 213 and 5 TDs in only one season. Why? B/c he played TE at the U and he had untapped potential as a prospect.

Getting drafted does not equate to development. Our guys are barely hanging around the league. Some of our players are drafted b/c of potential. It’s the reason y no name guys from USC, tOSU, Bama, Clemson, LSU, get drafted. For goodness sake, Matt Cassel was drafted and he played 3 snaps!! Why? B/c USC was producing QBs and he had potential.

Let’s use Chick as an example; Pittsburgh coaches wondered what happened to him at Miami. They transformed his body, moved him to LB, and he’s stayed in the league for a bit.....but this was a borderline 5 star guy that barely got drafted.

A lot of our guys started to get proper coaching at the NFL level, and a lot of our guys get drafted b/c of their potential and the school they attend. That’s the ONLY reason y Jeff Thomas is being considered as a draft pick. But the two are not synonymous. Redwine plays at Syracuse or WASU w his same production and he’s probably a UDFA.

 

[Ethnicsands]

It's not just our fanbase. It's all of college football. They've bestowed God like mystical qualities on coaches and their "development" skills, when, in reality, there is success at 2 major levels: 1. The guys who load up their roster with 5 stars like Sabag; and 2. Guys who evaluate their asses off. There are some who mix the 2 very well like ***** Swinney.

Agree 100%. People are generally really dumb, don’t understand probabilities and can’t differentiate correlation and causation.

As an aside, IMO Saban knows what he’s looking for in kids. Just because he has his pick doesn’t mean he doesn’t need to pick well.

 

[DTP]

The reason guys like Bandy and Quarterman are considered 6th or 7th rounders instead of 3rd or 4th rounders has a lot to do with Miami's reputation falling off. Average guys on good teams tend to get overrated by NFL scouts and good players on bad teams get ignored. There was a time when anyone who started for Miami was considered "draft-able". If you look at some of the drafts from out glory years, there was some serious over-rating going on with some guys.

 

[bshaw28]

I don’t focus on All-Pro teams because All-Pros are rare. That’s why they are All-Pros. Toledo and Cincinnati randomly had two this year. Only three teams had more. It’s a small sample and a poor measure of overall talent.

NFL players drafted over the past five years is a much larger sample and more accurate measure of overall talent. Here are the top teams by that measure:

Alabama: 11-2
Ohio State: 13-1
Florida: 11-2
Clemson: 14-1
Miami: 6-7
LSU: 15-0
Oklahoma: 12-2

These teams should look familiar, because they are the top programs in the country. And Miami.

It's fine to not focus on just All-Pro's, but you do have to account for talent in some way. Quantity doesn't equal Quality.

The way you're looking at it now - you're placing equal value on a 1st Round Pick as a 7th Round pick.

On the list below:

- Miami's had 29 draft picks, 5 in the first 2 rounds. Washington's had 24 draft picks, 14 in the first 2 rounds. HUGE difference.
- Miami & Auburn have 0 Pro-Bowlers. Michigan has 1. The rest have 2 or more.
- Only Auburn has less players taken in the first 2 rounds than Miami.

 

[Ethnicsands]

I don’t focus on All-Pro teams because All-Pros are rare. That’s why they are All-Pros. Toledo and Cincinnati randomly had two this year. Only three teams had more. It’s a small sample and a poor measure of overall talent.

NFL players drafted over the past five years is a much larger sample and more accurate measure of overall talent. Here are the top teams by that measure:

Alabama: 11-2
Ohio State: 13-1
Florida: 11-2
Clemson: 14-1
Miami: 6-7
LSU: 15-0
Oklahoma: 12-2

These teams should look familiar, because they are the top programs in the country. And Miami.

You are refusing to address the issue. You just ignore it and go back to your preferred narrative. Is it also random that none of the guys UM recruited in a decade have been all pros, or second team all pros? Have you thought about the difference between the probability that any one kid becomes an all pro, and the probability that literally none become one?

If you used Bayesian statistics, what would you think the probability is that UM has evaluated as well as Toledo or Cincinnati, given none of our kids become all pros, and multiple of theirs do, and our guys are consistently higher rated out of HS. It isn’t as ‘random’ as you think, imo.

 

[The Franchise]

Agree 100%. People are generally really dumb, don’t understand probabilities and can’t differentiate correlation and causation.

As an aside, IMO Saban knows what he’s looking for in kids. Just because he has his pick doesn’t mean he doesn’t need to pick well.

I agree to an extent on Sabag. But when you load up on elite talent like he does you're more likely to hit on enough regardless of your skills as an evaluator.

I think Sabag's genius, aside from stacking 5 stars, is his ability to either sign self-motivated guys or motivate them to play at their peak every week. Clearly, that could be an element of evaluation, as he seems to pick the hungrier hard workers. He's the best, in large part, because his teams don't have the wild peaks and valleys that so many others do. It's tough to maintain that level of success every week without players feeling like they've already arrived.

 

[Ethnicsands]

Then we can get into the discussion of how much of that "development" was just natural physical maturity and hard work by the player versus any magic pixie development dust by his coaches.

Exactly. If you want ‘development,’ you can skew recruiting to athletic projects. It might not be the best approach to winning cfb games, however, even if it helps with future nfl draft metrics. @DMoney

 

[Ethnicsands]

Of course. "Development" is a two way street. A player has to put in the time and effort. A coaching staff only gets so many hours to work with the kids. It's up to the players to determine how good they want to be. It's just like learning in school or learning a musical instrument. Your teacher has X amount of time a week to tell you what you need to know. It's up to you to go home and study and practice. You could have the best teacher in the world but if you don't study or practice, you're not going to ace the test.

Isn’t a big part of evaluating picking which kids will put in the work?

 

[Ethnicsands]

The reason guys like Bandy and Quarterman are considered 6th or 7th rounders instead of 3rd or 4th rounders has a lot to do with Miami's reputation falling off. Average guys on good teams tend to get overrated by NFL scouts and good players on bad teams get ignored. There was a time when anyone who started for Miami was considered "draft-able". If you look at some of the drafts from out glory years, there was some serious over-rating going on with some guys.

IMO it’s not about our reputation. It’s about the nfl knowing pretty well how to assess kids.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

It's not just our fanbase. It's all of college football. They've bestowed God like mystical qualities on coaches and their "development" skills, when, in reality, there is success at 2 major levels: 1. The guys who load up their roster with 5 stars like Sabag; and 2. Guys who evaluate their asses off. There are some who mix the 2 very well like ***** Swinney.

I’m glad you’re saying this. I’ve been saying this as well for a while now, this development stuff is overrated. Yes of course there is development, techniques are taught, etc, we do need good coaches.

But if you’re not starting with legit talent, whether through bullseye evaluations, or kick *** five star recruiting, or a combination of both, I don’t care how much development you do. You are just not going to get there if the raw talent is limited.

And if we are honest, our talent has not been exceptional, or even close, over the last 12 years. We’ve had some good talent, we’ve had players drafted, but the overall raw material has not been top 10-15 material, not even close, I don’t care what anybody says. Add suspect coaching, and you get what we’ve got.

Does not mean we shouldn’t have won the coastal several times. But that’s a whole other topic

 

[Ethnicsands]

I agree to an extent on Sabag. But when you load up on elite talent like he does you're more likely to hit on enough regardless of your skills as an evaluator.
[b/
I think Sabag's genius, aside from stacking 5 stars, is his ability to either sign self-motivated guys or motivate them to play at their peak every week. Clearly, that could be an element of evaluation, as he seems to pick the hungrier hard workers. He's the best, in large part, because his teams don't have the wild peaks and valleys that so many others do. It's tough to maintain that level of success every week without players feeling like they've already arrived.[/b]

Agree 100%. That is a key to his success, and it is central to evaluating that you pick kids who will develop themselves and compete. Butch got that.