T Chris Washington commits

[Patreek]

This is true, but look at what happens to Whisky every time they play a team that actually recruits at a high level. They beat up on the trash B1G west teams, but can't beat teams with actual talent.

I’d disagree with the assertion that Wisconsin doesn’t have the dogs to play with the top teams on the offensive line. They’re offensive line consistently hits way above its recruiting rankings. They lack in pretty much every other roster area but not that one. They have a pretty steady tradition of putting out NFL talent at that spot. They just take a different route than the top programs because they will never recruit as well or drop as much money as 10-25 other teams - so they evaluate and develop underrated guys who end up playing in the NFL. Either Miami learns to do something like this or somehow recruits like the top 5-10 teams who we all claim are constantly dropping bags and/or winning 10 or more games a year.

If Miami can get 1-2 Jalen Rivers level of player and 2-3 developmental players each class and build them up they will be more than fine. Swinging for the fences without any solid backup plan is a recipe for absolute failure for this program. I like what they are trying to do but we won’t know the real results of it for another 2-3 years unfortunately.

 

[Negro-Wan Kanobi]

We need some blue chips man

Im tryna get to the playoffs sh*t

You have to play the sport to get to the playoffs.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

So you dont expect much better than 8-5 season? Cause Miami doesnt have talent per you

Lucky for us we play in the Coastal. I can see us winning it this year.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

I’m not entirely sure that my point - that of the first 10 linemen drafted, more are 3* than 5/4 - isn’t true over the last 5 years. It might be, but I don’t feel like looking it up... lol

That’s self fulfilling. Better teams sign more blue chippers - again, no one is arguing against that. I know you’ll scream “OUTLIER!!!” - but, from my quick glance, clempsuns 2016 line had 2 blue chippers starting.

And, if you hit at a 35% rate at your job - unless you’re a big league third baseman - would you be considered “very good?” Especially if people in the same industry, working on a slightly different project, hit at 90%?

Clemsons starting line up had 1 5 star Carman
2 3 stars anchrum and Cervanka
and 2 4 stars Pollar and Simpson.

Who is hitting at 90%?

 

[Ajcane8]

Clemsons starting line up had 1 5 star Carman
2 3 stars anchrum and Cervanka
and 2 4 stars Pollar and Simpson.

Who is hitting at 90%?

You looking at 16 or 18?
16 was Hyatt (5), Crowder/Fruhmorgen (4) and Hearn/Guillermo/Falcinelli (3). So half the main rotation and at times 2/5 on the field - not at all an unreasonable goal for any top-tier p5 team, really.

Your boys at rivals and 247, according to you, are the ones that hit at 90% (except for o line...).

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

You looking at 16 or 18?
16 was Hyatt (5), Crowder/Fruhmorgen (4) and Hearn/Guillermo/Falcinelli (3). So half the main rotation and at times 2/5 on the field - not at all an unreasonable goal for any top-tier p5 team, really.

Your boys at rivals and 247, according to you, are the ones that hit at 90% (except for o line...).

I was looking at 18. I said 90% of them ended up making NFL rosters. Not in the first round. First round its going to be a lot lower. Even the majority of 5 star OL end up making NFL rosters. The same cannot be said for 3 stars.

 

[Ajcane8]

I was looking at 18. I said 90% of them ended up making NFL rosters. Not in the first round. First round its going to be a lot lower. Even the majority of 5 star OL end up making NFL rosters. The same cannot be said for 3 stars.

Well, I said 16 - but I wasn’t entirely right (or wrong).

90% of all 5*s make nfl rosters (I think) - not 90% of 5* o linemen. Of the 9 from 14-16, only 4 are currently in the NFL. I might look further back. I’ll let you know... if it helps my argument (lol).

Edit - just read your whole post, and again your going with the flawed % metric. I guess we can disagree about agreeing to disagree. Neither of us are gonna move (even though I’m clearly right )

 

[BeastMode]

Opinions are great, but I would love to know how many people have seen him in any capacity. A game, camp, on highlights, or film.

Welcome to the U. Make that offer a dream and show why the coaches believed enough in you to make the offer.

I’m going to try and get out and see him this fall here in Nashville.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

Well, I said 16 - but I wasn’t entirely right (or wrong).

90% of all 5*s make nfl rosters (I think) - not 90% of 5* o linemen. Of the 9 from 14-16, only 4 are currently in the NFL. I might look further back. I’ll let you know... if it helps my argument (lol).

LOL!

Here is the thing. 45% hit rate on 5 stars is really good compared to 3 and 4 star hit rates even on the OL. That is just my point.

 

[Go Canes!!]

5 star OLs are like Bigfoot. People talk a lot about them but no one’s really seen one.

When you have 1-3 a year and there are 65 Power 5 teams, the odds are overwhelmingly against your team ever having one.

Arguing about them is silly. 95% of all teams are made up of 3 and some 4 star kids that are developed by good coaching.

That’s where we are, just like everyone else.

 

[KANE]

The way I see it..... If we have to take 2-3 star rated kids on the OL, then we’re doing it the right way by getting tall, athletic guys that can move.

 

[Ajcane8]

5 star OLs are like Bigfoot. People talk a lot about them but no one’s really seen one.

When you have 1-3 a year and there are 65 Power 5 teams, the odds are overwhelmingly against your team ever having one.

Arguing about them is silly. 95% of all teams are made up of 3 and some 4 star kids that are developed by good coaching.

That’s where we are, just like everyone else.

Agree. 100%. I just think it’s funny that my man can’t concede that the ratings sites are, at best, flipping coins with even the best can’t miss kids... let alone the type of kids that are big-bodied, 6’6” with quick feet that play basketball half the year until they are juniors, so they don’t camp and haven’t put on “lineman weight” yet, etc...

With the 100s of linemen the sites don’t give that mythical 4th *, the guys at rivals/247 aren’t even flipping coins, they’re throwing darts in the dark.

 

[Ethnicsands]

It probably is more of a matter of opinion than anything else. This topic is just one I have always kind of struggled with.

The game is setup to give a site every advantage. They get all players to choose from. They get all film to review. They get all interviews. They get all camps. They get grade transcripts (at least the information of them). They get to use coaches paid millions of dollars for their evaluations. They get to use all athletic data. They get to see All-American games. They get to change their evaluations as soon as they see a program offer a player.

Then, they get to make HUNDREDS of choices from those players (5 and 4-stars).

After all that, they only get less than 25% (25% exactly this year in the second best year they’ve had since 2005) of their ELITE choices as 1st round picks. They don’t even get HALF of their hundreds of choices in the first round (since 2005).

If you told me I’d still get more than you did after you completely name the player pool to me, I’d be embarrassed as an evaluator, personally.

To me, it’s not a question of “there’s thousands of 3-star players out there, of course you will get more out of that larger pool”, it’s a question of, “you get all that information, get to use others evaluations and change your minds when it’s obvious you’re low on players, and you still can’t even get half?” Not only that, players are the stars they are because YOU say they are that. I’m like Puerto Rico, don’t even get a vote until after the vote has been cast.

Like I said, different perspectives. Recruiting sites give fans things to talk about. I want elite athleticism and elite film in my players (which usually result in elite star rankings).

I think we all agree we will win lots of games if we do that.

You may be overthinking it. If you think a 25% hit rate on first round picks is underwhelming, you need to be able to either show someone else who consistently does better, or explain what the rate should be some other way.

I think you’re missing plenty of factors here, and I am not even claiming sites are all that good. But out of the 25-30 kids that get 5 stars, a few will fall by the wayside for injuries or other issues and never be relevant to being drafted. Several are QBs, and that is a notoriously tough position to predict in advance, because what makes a guy good in the long run is decision making and reading defenses to go along with physical ability. That takes time and training and is notoriously hard to see in HS. So maybe we’re down to 18-20 kids from which 6-7 are first rounders. No doubt many more are second, third or fourth rounders. Some may have recovered from injuries to get drafted. Was Gore misranked coming out of HS because he didnt get drafted high? What about Armstead?

And lets keep in mind, the rankings reflect college coach recruiting priorities. They aren’t really intended to be predictions of nfl draft futures, though that is one aspect of them. In fact, they’re largely compilations based on how hotly recruited kids are by top programs. The reality is the 5* kids are pretty well ranked. Many get drafted high.

 

[Dghustla]

I don’t think anyone is saying, 3 star > 5 star kids.

I think what can reasonably be evaluated with recruiting services is built-in bias. They’re artificially biased towards larger OL. Why? It reduces risk. Those players have already shown the capacity to gain that weight, hold it, play with it, move at it etc. A large percentage of 250 OL will always be exactly that: too small to play at the highest levels. Even the best evaluators will miss on which kids are going to weight and strength and keep it on.

They’re biased towards offers. They use the coaches as proxy’s to do the real evaluations for them. It’s no secret the SEC top programs have built-in bumps for players who get offers to those programs.

The NFL also gives inherent bias towards 5-star recruits. Teams have a specific scouting notation for former 5-star players and they love to take them as if they have higher upside or untapped potential that they believe NFL coaching can get to.

If we were living in a perfect world we’d only recruit the very top guys, and we’d hand select every 5-star kid we wanted each year and do quite well.

But we live in a world where that’s only feasible for a few programs- one of which we are not among. That means Miami has to use the pitch they have right now (be a part of TNM, make the crib great again, early playing time, create a legacy etc.). That works on only a certain percentage of kids. Usually one marquee guy at a position (like they’re trying to do with Flowe). You aren’t getting five marquee guys at one position with that pitch. So, what do you do? Evaluate. Develop. Use data to identify the types that most often hit higher than their ranking.

I believe that’s what Miami is doing.

Thank you!!!

This this and this. Bias is the only way to explain how many chances guys like Ray Ray Armstrong and sentrell got. All that “untapped” potential. The last guy couldn’t motivate him, coach him, development blah blah blah.

Cant add anything else cuz you covered it.

 

[TemplarCane]

Anyone wanting 6 true freshman OL to walk in and dominate are going to be disappointed

 

[mirvin88]

You may be overthinking it. If you think a 25% hit rate on first round picks is underwhelming, you need to be able to either show someone else who consistently does better, or explain what the rate should be some other way.

I think you’re missing plenty of factors here, and I am not even claiming sites are all that good. But out of the 25-30 kids that get 5 stars, a few will fall by the wayside for injuries or other issues and never be relevant to being drafted. Several are QBs, and that is a notoriously tough position to predict in advance, because what makes a guy good in the long run is decision making and reading defenses to go along with physical ability. That takes time and training and is notoriously hard to see in HS. So maybe we’re down to 18-20 kids from which 6-7 are first rounders. No doubt many more are second, third or fourth rounders. Some may have recovered from injuries to get drafted. Was Gore misranked coming out of HS because he didnt get drafted high? What about Armstead?

And lets keep in mind, the rankings reflect college coach recruiting priorities. They aren’t really intended to be predictions of nfl draft futures, though that is one aspect of them. In fact, they’re largely compilations based on how hotly recruited kids are by top programs. The reality is the 5* kids are pretty well ranked. Many get drafted high.

Ehhh.....Pro potential is a huge factor in rankings. I know you said it is a factor but it's a larger one than you think IMO. Five stars are literally selected to mirror the NFL draft.

 

[vlcane]

Canes brothers, we are entitled to our opinions but the coaches need an opportunity to build their own team.
We built championship teams on 3-4 star players. Good luck to this young man, work hard and let’s get back to the championship!

 

[Cash]

good enough to not have a single D-1 offer aside from Miami

We played against his school last year and the kid is really good. Natural leverage, and uses his hands well to engage defenders. If you haven’t notice he’s in really good shape. Guessing he’s around 275lbs with not much fat. This is a poor evaluation by the recruiting services.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

Thank you!!!

This this and this. Bias is the only way to explain how many chances guys like Ray Ray Armstrong and sentrell got. All that “untapped” potential. The last guy couldn’t motivate him, coach him, development blah blah blah.

Cant add anything else cuz you covered it.

You picked absolutely terrible examples to prove your point. These guys were ruined by Golden and are still floating around in the league after 5-6 seasons. They both just signed contracts for another year.

 

[OriginalGatorHater]

We played against his school last year and the kid is really good. Natural leverage, and uses his hands well to engage defenders. If you haven’t notice he’s in really good shape. Guessing he’s around 275lbs with not much fat. This is a poor evaluation by the recruiting services.

Having no d-1 offers is not "poor evaluation by recruiting services". If he actually is good it means it is poor evaluation by "all the P5 schools that saw him and didn't offer him".