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I like flat days. Low volatility means steady growth. Good for longterm strategies.
 
One thing that should give the soft landing people some comfort: Powell has adjusted quickly to issues like the reverse repo in 2019 and bank failures in 2023.
 

08:30		USDBuilding Permits (MoM)(May) 1.491M0.201.423M1.417M
08:30USDBuilding Permits Change(May) 5.2% 1.26-5% -1.4%
08:30USDHousing Starts (MoM)(May) 1.631M3.691.4M1.34M
08:30USDHousing Starts Change(May) 21.7% 4.33-0.8% -2.9%
Building and Housing starts up.
 

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May​


www.reuters.com

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May

Groundbreaking on U.S. single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades and permits for future construction also climbed, suggesting the housing market may be turning a corner after getting clobbered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
SpikeUM said:

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May​


www.reuters.com

New US home construction surges by most in 3 decades in May

Groundbreaking on U.S. single-family homebuilding projects surged in May by the most in more than three decades and permits for future construction also climbed, suggesting the housing market may be turning a corner after getting clobbered by Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
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Powell also said home market bottom was likely already hit.

My real estate assets are appreciating at a rate I have never seen. Rent is still going up across most markets im investing in. Feeling pretty good leaving equities for more real estate.
 
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90scane said:
Powell also said home market bottom was likely already hit.

My real estate assets are appreciating at a rate I have never seen. Rent is still going up across most markets im investing in. Feeling pretty good leaving equities for more real estate.
Click to expand...

As I may have written many times before, there is a shortage in the Sunbelt, especially the Southeast. Occupancy is still in the 90's (which is excellent) and rents are still going up. Remember that even if they "only" go up 4%, its on top of the 20%+ they have recently risen.

There is also a fair amount of new construction, so there will be price swings, but in general, real estate should do well. Conversely, I wouldnt touch real estate in the northeast, far west, and midwest.
 
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SpikeUM said:
As I may have written many times before, there is a shortage in the Sunbelt, especially the Southeast. Occupancy is still in the 90's (which is excellent) and rents are still going up. Remember that even if they "only" go up 4%, its on top of the 20%+ they have recently risen.

There is also a fair amount of new construction, so there will be price swings, but in general, real estate should do well. Conversely, I wouldnt touch real estate in the northeast, far west, and midwest.
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As you know, I’m in Virginia which is doing well outside of northern Virginia. Hope to add more homes and diversify into Florida.

I can tell you the Keys are dead at this point. Very few transactions.
 
Powell speaks today….never good..He has to talk tough.
I still say inflation will drop YoY
June inflation will be low as the economy is slowing.
 
I have the Atlanta Fed on my side:

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Wednesday he thinks the Federal Reserve should hold interest rates steady at current levels through at least the end of this year to better judge the impact the central bank's aggressive rate hikes have had on the US economy.

"My baseline is that we should stay at this level for the rest of the year," Bostic told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Wednesday.

"I actually think that we are still at the very early stages of our monetary policy tightening, starting to influence the economy in a significant way. I just feel like we have a little bit of time to just let that play out and see exactly how much the economy is responding to our policy.”

Bostic said it could take anywhere from 6 to 24 months for the economy to feel the full brunt of the Fed's policies.
 
We haven’t seen historically average rates in a long time. It’s prudent to see how they affect the economy and the value of the dollar.
Combine that with a reduction of the budget deficit and we might actually reach the Fed target rate of inflation. The problem is everyone in DC needs to give up something they believe in spending money on.
 
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08:30		USDChicago Fed National Activity Index (May) TRADE NOW-0.15-0.9200.14
08:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Jun 9) TRADE NOW1.759M-1.301.782M1.772M
08:30USDCurrent Account(Q1) TRADE NOW$-219.3B-0.09$-218B$-216.2B
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Jun 16) TRADE NOW264K0.25260K264K
08:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jun 16)255.75K--247.25K
Jobless claims up, but not significantly
A lot of shorting going on.
 
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Powell says he sees path where inflation cools without significant job losses​

Last Updated: June 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m. ET
First Published: June 22, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET
By

Market Watch​


Strong labor market is the biggest surprise for U.S. economy this year, economists say​


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said it is possible that U.S. inflation can cool without a large increase in the unemployment rate.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell was asked by Sen. Tina Smith, a Republican from North Dakota, if he saw “a path for inflation to continue slowing without seeing significant job losses and doing harm to middle class families?” Powell replied: “I do.”
Powell said the labor market is gradually cooling and “that’s what we would want to see.”

That sounds like soft landing talk….
 
mr.h said:

Powell says he sees path where inflation cools without significant job losses​

Last Updated: June 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m. ET
First Published: June 22, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET
By

Market Watch​


Strong labor market is the biggest surprise for U.S. economy this year, economists say​


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said it is possible that U.S. inflation can cool without a large increase in the unemployment rate.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell was asked by Sen. Tina Smith, a Republican from North Dakota, if he saw “a path for inflation to continue slowing without seeing significant job losses and doing harm to middle class families?” Powell replied: “I do.”
Powell said the labor market is gradually cooling and “that’s what we would want to see.”

That sounds like soft landing talk….
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If no more trillion dollar spending bills go through and European inflation calms down, then maybe.
 
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