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Powell says he sees path where inflation cools without significant job losses​

Last Updated: June 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m. ET
First Published: June 22, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET
By

Market Watch​


Strong labor market is the biggest surprise for U.S. economy this year, economists say​


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said it is possible that U.S. inflation can cool without a large increase in the unemployment rate.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell was asked by Sen. Tina Smith, a Republican from North Dakota, if he saw “a path for inflation to continue slowing without seeing significant job losses and doing harm to middle class families?” Powell replied: “I do.”
Powell said the labor market is gradually cooling and “that’s what we would want to see.”

That sounds like soft landing talk….
 
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mr.h said:

Powell says he sees path where inflation cools without significant job losses​

Last Updated: June 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m. ET
First Published: June 22, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET
By

Market Watch​


Strong labor market is the biggest surprise for U.S. economy this year, economists say​


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said it is possible that U.S. inflation can cool without a large increase in the unemployment rate.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell was asked by Sen. Tina Smith, a Republican from North Dakota, if he saw “a path for inflation to continue slowing without seeing significant job losses and doing harm to middle class families?” Powell replied: “I do.”
Powell said the labor market is gradually cooling and “that’s what we would want to see.”

That sounds like soft landing talk….
Click to expand...
If no more trillion dollar spending bills go through and European inflation calms down, then maybe.
 
mr.h said:

Powell says he sees path where inflation cools without significant job losses​

Last Updated: June 22, 2023 at 12:52 p.m. ET
First Published: June 22, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET
By

Market Watch​


Strong labor market is the biggest surprise for U.S. economy this year, economists say​


Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday said it is possible that U.S. inflation can cool without a large increase in the unemployment rate.
At a Senate Banking Committee hearing, Powell was asked by Sen. Tina Smith, a Republican from North Dakota, if he saw “a path for inflation to continue slowing without seeing significant job losses and doing harm to middle class families?” Powell replied: “I do.”
Powell said the labor market is gradually cooling and “that’s what we would want to see.”

That sounds like soft landing talk….
Click to expand...

Standard political answer
 
Both the U.S. and U.K. have seen the drivers shift to wages and the services sector—areas where it’s trickier to break the spiral of ever-increasing prices. Once the dampening effects of higher energy prices last year drop out of inflation rates, the U.S. headline rate could suddenly stop falling—and that could happen well above the Fed’s target.

www.barrons.com

Why the Fed May Need to Borrow U.K.’s Bazooka on Interest Rates

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www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
09:45USDS&P Global Composite PMI(Jun) PREL 53-0.7254.454.3
09:45USDS&P Global Manufacturing PMI(Jun) PREL 46.3-1.6648.548.4
09:45USDS&P Global Services PMI(Jun) PREL 54.10.075454.9
Definite growth in services
 
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08:30USDDurable Goods Orders(May) 1.7% 1.48-1% 1.2%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Defense(May) 3% 0.760% -0.5%
08:30USDDurable Goods Orders ex Transportation(May) 0.6% 2.07-0.1% -0.6%
08:30USDNondefense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircraft(May) 0.7% 0.940% 0.6%

10:00		USDNew Home Sales (MoM)(May) TRADE NOW0.763M3.550.675M0.68M
10:00USDNew Home Sales Change (MoM)(May) TRADE NOW12.2% 2.750.5% 3.5%
10:00USDRichmond Fed Manufacturing Index(Jun) TRADE NOW-70.66-10-15

Better housing numbers, so it makes sense durable goods orders are up for too.
Manufacturing index is still weak
Consumer confidence is up.
Maybe buyers are trying to get ahead of rate hikes…???
 
90scane said:

Reps. Panetta, Kelly Reintroduce Bipartisan Legislation to Make Housing More Available and Affordable

Monterey, CA – Today, U.S. Representative Jimmy Panetta (CA-19) and Representative Mike Kelly (PA-16) reintroduced the bipartisan More Homes on the Market Act to address ongoing housing affordability issues across the country.
panetta.house.gov panetta.house.gov

They will need to adjust this at some point with home prices jumping by >20% in the last 3 years.
Click to expand...
Most cities want affordable housing, but not near them…lol
 
90scane said:

Reps. Panetta, Kelly Reintroduce Bipartisan Legislation to Make Housing More Available and Affordable

Monterey, CA – Today, U.S. Representative Jimmy Panetta (CA-19) and Representative Mike Kelly (PA-16) reintroduced the bipartisan More Homes on the Market Act to address ongoing housing affordability issues across the country.
panetta.house.gov panetta.house.gov

They will need to adjust this at some point with home prices jumping by >20% in the last 3 years.
Click to expand...
More benefit for people to sell their homes? Yes, please. Something to overcome these mortgages way under prime.
 
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LLY..
Now, a new drug made by Eli Lilly and Co., called tirzepatide, is poised to become the most potent obesity drug on the market, promising users losses of more than 30 to 50 pounds over time.
 
90scane said:
Yay! We can keep pushing sugars and processed foods to those same people and then offset it with drugs.
Click to expand...
the jungle book capitalism GIF
 
Powell to speak momentarily
Screaming Vincent Price GIF by Turner Classic Movies
Screaming Vincent Price GIF by Turner Classic Movies

PS
It seems Powell is considering keeping rates higher, for a longer period of time while keeping hikes on the table.
 
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Benzinger
Allianz chief economic adviser and noted economist Mohamed El-Erian has expressed confidence in the latest set of economic data releases saying they align with his view the U.S. may not fall into recession.

He’s been saying the sky is falling all year.
 
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07:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Jun 16) TRADE NOW1.742M-1.271.765M1.761M
07:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures (QoQ)(Q1) TRADE NOW4.9% -0.165%5%
07:30USDGross Domestic Product Annualized(Q1) TRADE NOW2% 1.661.3%1.3%
07:30USDGross Domestic Product Price Index(Q1) TRADE NOW4.1% -0.794.2%4.2%
07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(Jun 23) TRADE NOW239K-1.83265K265K
07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(Jun 23)257.5K--255.75K
07:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures Prices (QoQ)(Q1) TRADE NOW4.1% -0.064.2%4.2%

strong
 
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TheEye said:
“For 240 years it's been a terrible mistake to bet against America,“ -Warren Buuffet
Click to expand...

I agree with Warren, but to clarify, my bearishness is simply logic, never in history has the Fed raised so aggressively AND done QT and the market hasnt broken. Bottom line is that the government spent too much during COVID and is spending too much now, that excess liquidity is surely but slowly being drained.
 
SpikeUM said:
I agree with Warren, but to clarify, my bearishness is simply logic, never in history has the Fed raised so aggressively AND done QT and the market hasnt broken. Bottom line is that the government spent too much during COVID and is spending too much now, that excess liquidity is surely but slowly being drained.
Click to expand...
It’s gonna be a while, but for the last two decades we’ve been doing the dance of cheap money via low interest rates. We are paying the piper in the face of record breaking inflation.
 
07:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(May) 0.3% -0.4% 0.4%
07:30USDCore Personal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(May) 4.6% -4.7% 4.7%
07:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (MoM)(May) 0.1% -0.5% 0.4%
07:30USDPersonal Consumption Expenditures - Price Index (YoY)(May) 3.8% -4.6% 4.3%
07:30USDPersonal Income (MoM)(May) 0.4% 00.4% 0.3%
07:30USDPersonal Spending(May) 0.1% -0.2% 0.8%

spending and consumption down…income ticked up.
keep rates higher longer as opposed to hikes.
 
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