Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[mr.h]

BLOOMBERG:​

Bond Traders Bet on Biggest Fed Shift in Decades on Credit Risk​

Ye Xie and Michael Mackenzie
1 day ago

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, D.C., US, on Wednesday, July 6, 2022. The Federal Reserve will unveil details of what policy makers debated last month that may shed light on how they view the near-term path for interest rates amid surging inflation and signs of a slowing economy.

(Bloomberg) -- Fresh fears over a recession-inducing credit crunch are spurring bond bulls to ramp up bets that the Federal Reserve will embark on the most abrupt policy shift in almost four decades.

Just minutes after Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest-rate hike, traders intensified their long-standing wagers on imminent cuts as renewed turmoil in regional banks sent shivers across Wall Street. At their most anxious, markets priced in a policy about-face as soon as in July.

wow..

 

[mr.h]

Deficit Tracker | Bipartisan Policy Center

Even as the U.S. economy expands, the federal government continues to run large and growing budget deficits that will soon exceed $1 trillion per…

bipartisanpolicy.org

This does not jibe with your statement of a $32 trillion deficit and growing.

If we have a drop in equities, as the date gets nearer for the debt ceiling, I’m buying the drop, because McConnell will never let the collapse that far right Republicans are hoping for. Of course you have to pick strong companies with cash
reserves. It’s inconceivable that a party would allow a global financial crises over a budget debate….jmo

 

[90scane]

I'm a newbie, so idk what to invest in, but i wanna build some income on the side.

As a newbie, I would just do what most do and dollar cost average with SPY. By that I mean, invest every month you can and don't look at it for 10-20 years. If you don't want all your investments in the stock market, you can always invest in real estate or a small business. Personally, I've made far more wealth from the RE and Business than stocks.

 

[Bender]

As a newbie, I would just do what most do and dollar cost average with SPY. By that I mean, invest every month you can and don't look at it for 10-20 years. If you don't want all your investments in the stock market, you can always invest in real estate or a small business. Personally, I've made far more wealth from the RE and Business than stocks.

Hydrogen it is. I'm not looking at that in the future, that stuff wont blow up in ten years.

 

[90scane]

Hydrogen it is. I'm not looking at that in the future, that stuff wont blow up in ten years.

If you know something that others don't, then use it to your advantage so long as it isn't insider trading (ignoring that all of DC does it).

Toyota believes they have the solution to beat EV with a hydrogen engine. The big risk with H is fire yet Li-ion is also a fire risk. Future battery tech like Sodium-ion could remove the risk and costs of production.

 

[SpikeUM]

Deficit Tracker | Bipartisan Policy Center

Even as the U.S. economy expands, the federal government continues to run large and growing budget deficits that will soon exceed $1 trillion per…

bipartisanpolicy.org

This does not jibe with your statement of a $32 trillion deficit and growing.

We are at +/- $31.5T already, and we are still increasing spending and are having to refinance debt at a much higher interest rate. What are you referring to?

 

[JD08]

If you know something that others don't, then use it to your advantage so long as it isn't insider trading (ignoring that all of DC does it).

Toyota believes they have the solution to beat EV with a hydrogen engine. The big risk with H is fire yet Li-ion is also a fire risk. Future battery tech like Sodium-ion could remove the risk and costs of production.

The issue of refueling time and reliance on the electrical grid remains. If, IF Toyota can overcome the hurdles that hydrogen possesses, it solves both of those problems.

Now imagine a plug in hybrid hydrogen/electric vehicle. The refueling infrastructure is already in place by refitting gas stations, there will be no shortages in the event of high electricity demand, and refueling on trips will be quick enough to be worthwhile.

 

[Bender]

If you know something that others don't, then use it to your advantage so long as it isn't insider trading (ignoring that all of DC does it).

Toyota believes they have the solution to beat EV with a hydrogen engine. The big risk with H is fire yet Li-ion is also a fire risk. Future battery tech like Sodium-ion could remove the risk and costs of production.

Norway and Denmark have made large investments into Hydrogen. Not to mention Saudi Arabia trying to become the biggest export giant for Hydrogen.

Gonna look into some battery tech next month. For now, Hydrogen it is. Unless the market in battery blows up.

 

[TheEye]

We are at +/- $31.5T already, and we are still increasing spending and are having to refinance debt at a much higher interest rate. What are you referring to?

That number sounds more like our debt and not the deficit.

 

[SpikeUM]

That number sounds more like our debt and not the deficit.

Debt = collective deficit, one year is not the point anyway, its the total and the trend.

 

[JD08]

Debt = collective deficit, one year is not the point anyway, its the total and the trend.

One year just tells you how seriously they take it and should be an indicator of how bad they want to be reelected by responsible people who understand basic economics.

 

[TheEye]

Debt = collective deficit, one year is not the point anyway, its the total and the trend.

But over spending by $31.5T on an annual basis is an insurmountable problem. Are we just going to call the national debt the deficit from now on?

 

[SpikeUM]

But over spending by $31.5T on an annual basis is an insurmountable problem. Are we just going to call the national debt the deficit from now on?

Its semantics, we have to pay back $31.5T+, whether we like it or not. Even if we froze spending, the debt would still go up dramatically because of the increased interest expense. The sooner we have our house in order, the less painful it will be.

 

[TheEye]

Its semantics, we have to pay back $31.5T+, whether we like it or not. Even if we froze spending, the debt would still go up dramatically because of the increased interest expense. The sooner we have our house in order, the less painful it will be.

Semantics are important in addressing the issue. How mach do we over spend on an annual basis? You have to eliminate that before you can ever pay down any debt.

 

[JD08]

Semantics are important in addressing the issue. How mach do we over spend on an annual basis? You have to eliminate that before you can ever pay down any debt.

Here you go.

We're at $1.1 trillion right now in fiscal year 2023, which started in October 2022. That's a 65% increased compared to last fiscal year, where we were only $432 billion in the hole by this time.

Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

 

[TheEye]

Here you go.

We're at $1.1 trillion right now in fiscal year 2023, which started in October 2022. That's a 65% increased compared to last fiscal year, where we were only $432 billion in the hole by this time.

Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Thank you. Just want some facts to work with.

 

[Cmuri]

As a newbie, I would just do what most do and dollar cost average with SPY. By that I mean, invest every month you can and don't look at it for 10-20 years. If you don't want all your investments in the stock market, you can always invest in real estate or a small business. Personally, I've made far more wealth from the RE and Business than stocks.

That or buy apple and Microsoft slowly by dollar cost averaging. Spy is about 20% or more Microsoft and apple. Obviously there’s more risk involved with it. But decent returns.

 

[JD08]

Here's how you could have done with dollar cost averaging AAPL over the last 5 years.

Aiolux.com: Dollar Cost Average Calculator for [AAPL] Apple Inc. | Aiolux

Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) simulates effect of regular investments in [AAPL] Apple Inc. without regard for price/market fluctuations or trying to time markets. Specify stock/etf/crypto symbol & investment schedule below then click recalculate to view dollar cost averaged back-test report. DCA...

aiolux.com

 

[90scane]

That or buy apple and Microsoft slowly by dollar cost averaging. Spy is about 20% or more Microsoft and apple. Obviously there’s more risk involved with it. But decent returns.

All investments are risk/reward. Since they control the duopoly on operating systems, you likely are fine for many years. Microsoft has expanded into AI and cloud with some good success. Apple controls a large percentage of cell phones and has started to add sat support to them. All that said, I would expect both to get hit pretty hard within 12 months so dollar-cost averaging won't look too hot until 2025 but that is why it is dollar-cost averaging vs buying the dip.

 

[Cmuri]

All investments are risk/reward. Since they control the duopoly on operating systems, you likely are fine for many years. Microsoft has expanded into AI and cloud with some good success. Apple controls a large percentage of cell phones and has started to add sat support to them. All that said, I would expect both to get hit pretty hard within 12 months so dollar-cost averaging won't look too hot until 2025 but that is why it is dollar-cost averaging vs buying the dip.

Microsoft and apple have consistently outperformed the market. They also give a small dividend as well. Apple is now growing their Apple Card/savings. The AR glasses will probably bust, but longterm apple has ways to grow including a possible apple car down the road. I expect both companies to find innovative ways to continue growing their revenue. Healthy balance sheets and they will continue to try to M&A like Microsoft is trying to do with Atvi.