forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

TheEye said:
That’s…a lot of cash waiting for a dip in the market. 🤔


markets.businessinsider.com

There's a record $5.3 trillion in cash on the sidelines as investors get more bearish on stocks. Here's why that could mean big gains ahead.

The recent surge of cash into money market funds eclipsed the $500 billion of fund inflows seen after the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.
markets.businessinsider.com markets.businessinsider.com
Click to expand...

Not all of that would flow into the stock market. I’d actually assume the majority would flow into the economy either via businesses or real estate. Every business with large cash reserves likely moved money into money market funds.
 
Advertisement
90scane said:
Not all of that would flow into the stock market. I’d actually assume the majority would flow into the economy either via businesses or real estate. Every business with large cash reserves likely moved money into money market funds.
Click to expand...
Good point, but there’s also the boogeyman in this thread about commercial and private real estate crashes plus a catastrophic recession. With this much cash on the sidelines, predicting devastation seems a bit unwarranted.
 
mr.h said:
orson welles applause GIF

Again, this will be the debate that will decide the next election.
But have a clean debt ceiling increase, liked we have done for over 100 years. Then we debate.
Click to expand...
Eh, no, just wrong, we've never had a clean debt ceiling increase bill. ITs inevitably loaded with additional spending and pork projects.
Could you possibly be more wrong? LOL

I mean you double down on stupid like it was on a BOGO at Publix.

NO, its time to shove the debt ceiling into the democrats things they fear the most and cut spending and cut the projects which were authorized by democrats alone and shut them down. Don't care. Stop the funding. End the projects which don't need to be spent into oblivion anyhow. You have no idea how government really works anyhow I'm arguing with a ******.
 
DerpaDerp said:
Eh, no, just wrong, we've never had a clean debt ceiling increase bill. ITs inevitably loaded with additional spending and pork projects.
Could you possibly be more wrong? LOL

I mean you double down on stupid like it was on a BOGO at Publix.

NO, its time to shove the debt ceiling into the democrats things they fear the most and cut spending and cut the projects which were authorized by democrats alone and shut them down. Don't care. Stop the funding. End the projects which don't need to be spent into oblivion anyhow. You have no idea how government really works anyhow I'm arguing with a ******.
Click to expand...
Do you even know what the Republicans want to cut?
Do you even know what Biden’s budget is?
 
I like to invest in megatrends, like to the population moving to the suburbs and to the Sunbelt. From WSJ

The decline of the five-day commute is a boon to suburban retail.​

A growing number of restaurants and retail businesses in city office districts are relocating their businesses to the suburbs, where visits to shopping centers are on the rise as fewer people commute to downtown workplaces. Even high-end enclosed malls, which were hard hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, are showing signs of improvement. The changes are coming at the expense of city retailers that are struggling to draw customers back.

Click to expand...
 
JD08 said:
Well, it's already at least a trillion dollars higher than it should be and the year's not over.

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit
fiscaldata.treasury.gov fiscaldata.treasury.gov
Click to expand...

I honestly think you could cut a couple of trillion relatively easily (economically, not politically).

Our EV subsidies are corporate welfare for car companies, even foreign ones. Eliminate them and the car companies will have to cut the prices of their cars, that lowers inflation too.

Solar panels are made almost exclusively by China, so those subsidies actually help the Chinese and hurt us.

Freeze all Federal hiring.

What does the Energy Dept do, at the end of the day? We are actually less energy independent today than when Jimmy Carter created it in 1977, and our Emergency Reserve is getting gutted out for political purposes. Its one of the most worthless of government agencies, and that is saying a lot. Thats $250BB a year of savings.

Hire a Consulting firm to go after waste and fraud, pay them a percentage of their findings. Why dont we already do that?

Resume student loan repayments. Thats $50BB a year. Duh!

I could go on, but you get the point.
 
Advertisement
JD08 said:
Well, it's already at least a trillion dollars higher than it should be and the year's not over.

fiscaldata.treasury.gov

Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

Check out @FiscalService Fiscal Data’s new national deficit page! #NationalDeficit
fiscaldata.treasury.gov fiscaldata.treasury.gov
Click to expand...
Sometimes the situation calls for higher spending. The national debt enables the federal government to pay for important programs and services, that were not funded due to massive decreases in revenue, like tax breaks for the wealthy and high inflation that we are trying to get out of. A lot of these programs will have big payoffs in the future.
Each program and service needs to be evaluated, which we will do because of the election cycle.
I haven’t heard the Republican plan being discussed and debated.
 
mr.h said:
Sometimes the situation calls for higher spending. The national debt enables the federal government to pay for important programs and services, that were not funded due to massive decreases in revenue, like tax breaks for the wealthy and high inflation that we are trying to get out of. A lot of these programs will have big payoffs in the future.
Each program and service needs to be evaluated, which we will do because of the election cycle.
I haven’t heard the Republican plan being discussed and debated.
Click to expand...
So we're spending money efficiently and need every penny?
 
mr.h said:
No and that is why I gave you a rep on your last post.
Click to expand...
What I'm saying is there's no need for higher spending at this point. There's no will to reduce the deficit. That's going to be a problem before too long.
 
USDConsumer Price Index (MoM)(Apr)0.4% 00.4%0.1%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index (YoY)(Apr) TRADE NOW4.9% -0.675%5%
USDConsumer Price Index Core s.a(Apr)---305.24
07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Apr)0.4% 00.4%0.4%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Apr)5.5% 05.5%5.6%
07:30USDConsumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM)(Apr) TRADE NOW303.363-0.48303.532301.836

as expected…with a drop in cpi yoy in April..bas inflation drops below 5%…we rally.
with bank credit contracting and the debt ceiling coming due, we should pause.
PPI tomorrow
 
Last edited:

Stocks Will Rally If Inflation Data Is Soft, Goldman and JPMorgan Say​

by Lu Wang, 5/10/23

In a market where conflicting views abound, two major Wall Street trading desks agree on one thing: US stocks will rally on any soft inflation print Wednesday that could pave the way for the Federal Reserve to halt its tightening campaign.
A consumer-price index around or below the 5% consensus could spark an equity rally, with the S&P 500 rising at least 0.5%, according to John Flood, a partner at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Meantime, a surprisingly strong reading would send stocks sharply lower. The benchmark index could drop at least 2% on a reading above 5.9%, he added.

I’m guessing volatility will moderate and large tech continues to rise because of AI.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
Dividends and guaranteed yield returns on bonds and accounts are still ruling. Dow 34K ceiling still holding and no signs of the 35k level breaking anytime soon. Dow floor is still a hair below 30K.
 
TheEye said:
Dividends and guaranteed yield returns on bonds and accounts are still ruling. Dow 34K ceiling still holding and no signs of the 35k level breaking anytime soon. Dow floor is still a hair below 30K.
Click to expand...
If we pause and hold we can have a soft landing and go up modestly in 2023, especially if inflation continues to drop. If we see rate cuts, we bounce a lot higher.
I watch the S&P.
 
Re my earlier comments about EV subsidies being corporate welfare:

(Reuters) Morgan Stanley estimated in a note Tuesday that Tesla could harvest nearly $47 billion through 2030 from electric vehicle production subsidies available through the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
 
mr.h said:
If we pause and hold we can have a soft landing and go up modestly in 2023, especially if inflation continues to drop. If we see rate cuts, we bounce a lot higher.
I watch the S&P.
Click to expand...
I don’t see the S&P cracking 4300 either. Too much good news is going to wake up Powell. Maybe he gets a little dovish and allows modest inflation, but every-time we think he’s going to pause, he throws another quarter point on the fire.
 
Back
Top