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Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

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mr.h said:
If we pause and hold we can have a soft landing and go up modestly in 2023, especially if inflation continues to drop. If we see rate cuts, we bounce a lot higher.
I watch the S&P.
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I don’t see the S&P cracking 4300 either. Too much good news is going to wake up Powell. Maybe he gets a little dovish and allows modest inflation, but every-time we think he’s going to pause, he throws another quarter point on the fire.
 
SpikeUM said:
Re my earlier comments about EV subsidies being corporate welfare:

(Reuters) Morgan Stanley estimated in a note Tuesday that Tesla could harvest nearly $47 billion through 2030 from electric vehicle production subsidies available through the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
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Fixed that for Congress
 
SpikeUM said:
Re my earlier comments about EV subsidies being corporate welfare:

(Reuters) Morgan Stanley estimated in a note Tuesday that Tesla could harvest nearly $47 billion through 2030 from electric vehicle production subsidies available through the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.
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I’m waiting a few more years and buying an APPL car..
I don’t mind some corporate subsidies if the product is made in America and creates J O B S
We need to stay in the Americas, North and South, for lithium, metals and Rare Earths.
 
As of now, we would have to break from history to have a soft landing. Banks are implementing tougher credit standards. The FED is doing QT and increasing rates. Unemployment has held up but that tends to lag. Corporate borrowing is looking worse by the day with many refinancing their corporate debt to attempt to weather the recession. Insurance companies, banks, and Pensions will be left holding the bag when corporate defaults start happening. Then unemployment jumps leading to more foreclosures and personal bankrupcies... We have a few companies holding up the indexes and the rest aren't looking so hot.
 
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mr.h said:
I’m waiting a few more years and buying an APPL car..
I don’t mind some corporate subsidies if the product is made in America and creates J O B S
We need to stay in the Americas, North and South, for lithium, metals and Rare Earths.
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The "opposite day" named Inflation Reduction act has a huge EV loophole - if a car is leased (not purchased), it still qualifies for the tax credit. So if Tesla decides to import cars from its China giga factory and sell them only thru leases, they would still qualify.

My understanding (not sure though) is also that cars EV's built in Mexico and Canada also qualify for the EV credit.

The above is part of the reason Joe Munchkin has been railing against the act and Biden, he purportedly feels betrayed.
 
mr.h said:
I’m waiting a few more years and buying an APPL car..
I don’t mind some corporate subsidies if the product is made in America and creates J O B S
We need to stay in the Americas, North and South, for lithium, metals and Rare Earths.
Click to expand...

Its nearly impossible to mine metals in the US due to NIMBY and ESG regulations. So unless the permit/approval process is greatly streamlined (another topic Munchkin is ****ed off about), US mining is a non starter.
 
7:30USDContinuing Jobless Claims(Apr 28)1.813M-0.111.82M1.801M
07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims(May 5) 264K1.30245K242K
07:30USDInitial Jobless Claims 4-week average(May 5) 245.25K--239.25K
07:30USDProducer Price Index (MoM)(Apr) 0.2% -0.300.3% -0.4%
07:30USDProducer Price Index (YoY)(Apr) 2.3% -0.202.4% 2.7%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM)(Apr) 0.2% 00.2% 0%
07:30USDProducer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)(Apr) 3.2% -0.223.3% 3.4%
in regards to inflation….lower
jobless claims…up
 
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90scane said:
Who should panic more Hurricanes fans over our DT/WR recruiting, depositors at any bank with "WEST" in the name, or Congress if they fail to raise the debt ceiling?
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I'm going with the 2nd option
 
90scane said:
Who should panic more Hurricanes fans over our DT/WR recruiting, depositors at any bank with "WEST" in the name, or Congress if they fail to raise the debt ceiling?
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So the FDIC is going to charge banks more because of the collapse of the various banks. The banks will pass that cost along to depositors, who if they are smart, will continue moving bank deposits out of the system, so we are on a hamster wheel.
 
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SpikeUM said:
So the FDIC is going to charge banks more because of the collapse of the various banks. The banks will pass that cost along to depositors, who if they are smart, will continue moving bank deposits out of the system, so we are on a hamster wheel.
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Blame the bankers. At least the government is doing something to protect us from these greedy basturds.
 
mr.h said:
At least the government is doing something to protect us from these greedy basturds.
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I'm not sure I'd call regional bankers greedy basturds. I would consider government greedy as those at the top are greedy for power and money yet you just praised them for protecting people.

Regional and smaller banker does what they are asked to do by government, investors, and depositors. (some did it poorly)

Government steps in when they fail due to the FEDs folly of raising rates higher and faster than they likely should have causing massive pressure on loan books that normally take 2-3 years to turn over.

Government turns around and charges higher fees to FDIC banks via fees that will be charged to the common depositors.

Where exactly is the government protecting us from greed? Wouldn't rolling back the $250B cap to $50B and actually stress testing for rapidly raising rates have been protecting us? All they have done is protect the FDIC, FED, Congress, and greedy large banks that are buying up assets.
 
mr.h said:
Blame the bankers. At least the government is doing something to protect us from these greedy basturds.
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Completely missing the point, the more deposits move out of the system, the less economic growth there will be. Charging more FDIC fees just makes the problem worse, not better.

All of our rules, regulations and fees make banking unattractive as a business, to work at, to invest in, to deposit money at.
 
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SpikeUM said:
All of our rules, regulations and fees make banking unattractive as a business, to work at, to invest in, to deposit money at.
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And bankers are the real fuel to growing the economy with 40% of home loans and a large percentage of business loans.
 
SpikeUM said:
Completely missing the point, the more deposits move out of the system, the less economic growth there will be. Charging more FDIC fees just makes the problem worse, not better.

All of our rules, regulations and fees make banking unattractive as a business, to work at, to invest in, to deposit money at.
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I’m not missing the point. The banking industry always proves, that during a financial crisis, they need more regulations. You’re forgetting history. The problem is that we are constantly bailing them out with little consequence.
 
mr.h said:
The problem is that we are constantly bailing them out with little consequence.
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That is the government failing the people and you want them to keep protecting us? They fail to do so when they fund the failures!
 
90scane said:
That is the government failing the people and you want them to keep protecting us? They fail to do so when they fund the failures!
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I remember us having a conversation about oversight and regulations. You said that regulations only cause loopholes. If we let banks fail and do not step in, individuals like you and me, our businesses and homes could be lost. What protections would we have without the gov't.? I certainly would not put my money in an unsecured banking system. Do you remember Lehman Bros.?
 
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