forums

Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

BTW, MS thinks we go down to 3400, ML has three scenarios; nibble at 3500, take a bite at 3200 and gorge at 3000. UBS is at 3300 in a recession scenario.
 
Advertisement
SpikeUM said:
Alternative viewpoint: the high yield is a warning sign, plus you are buying into mortgages when rates are rapidly going up and credit quality will deteriorate.
Click to expand...

High yield is either a warning sign of a dividend cut or an irrational price - meaning the price will move up to be more inline with its peers. NLY's peers yield 8-10% typically, so that would put NLY somewhere near $8 to be in line.

Valid point about credit quality in a sense- however, the one point I would make with regard to credit quality is that NLY sold a lot of their non-agency MBS assets recently and is very, very heavily weighted toward agency MBS. Agency MBS meaning all gov't baked MBS (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie).

IMO rising mortgage / rents are not necessarily a bad thing longer term. they have locked in tons of higher quality assets at low rates recently (obviously) and the spread with higher rates and rents should improve their profitability and economic impact moving forward. Govt entities are less at risk in this thesis.
 
Cryptical Envelopment said:
High yield is either a warning sign of a dividend cut or an irrational price - meaning the price will move up to be more inline with its peers. NLY's peers yield 8-10% typically, so that would put NLY somewhere near $8 to be in line.

Valid point about credit quality in a sense- however, the one point I would make with regard to credit quality is that NLY sold a lot of their non-agency MBS assets recently and is very, very heavily weighted toward agency MBS. Agency MBS meaning all gov't baked MBS (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie).

IMO rising mortgage / rents are not necessarily a bad thing longer term. they have locked in tons of higher quality assets at low rates recently (obviously) and the spread with higher rates and rents should improve their profitability and economic impact moving forward. Govt entities are less at risk in this thesis.
Click to expand...

Just think you are early, thats all.
 
David is a permabear, but his thinking aligns now with most of Wall Street. Edit: most economists have now come to his point of view

www.barrons.com

Stock Market Bargain Hunters May Want to Wait

Investors should prune assets that are sensitive to the economy. Better positioned for gains: staples, utilities, and healthcare, strategists say.
www.barrons.com www.barrons.com
 
Advertisement
eletric-vehicles.com

Mullen extends the $28 million convertible note with Esousa until July 2024

Written by Cláudio Afonso | info@claudio-afonso.com | LinkedIn | Twitter The California-based EV maker Mullen Automotive announced on Tuesday that it has extended the maturity of a senior secured c…
eletric-vehicles.com eletric-vehicles.com

Very smart move by the CEO of MULN. Basically turns Esousa into a long term investor by extending maturity by two years to July 2024.

This reduces payments during an economic downturn when every dollar counts. Also reduces likelyhood of dilution through conversion.
 
My god..everything I own is up double digits..could we be nearing the bottom?
On the other hand we have another big rate hike commin..
 
Advertisement
Back
Top