Off-Topic Stock Market & Crypto Discussion

[SpikeUM]

I think the div is relatively safe. It was already taken from .25 to .22 during covid, and they never bought it back up. Could they lower it again? Sure, it's possible. But even at .20 it's still a great yield.

Alternative viewpoint: the high yield is a warning sign, plus you are buying into mortgages when rates are rapidly going up and credit quality will deteriorate.

 

[SpikeUM]

Risk of default by large banks is going up. This could be another huge problem.

It would be YUGE if it happens, but I think its just another sign to derisk.

 

[SpikeUM]

BTW, MS thinks we go down to 3400, ML has three scenarios; nibble at 3500, take a bite at 3200 and gorge at 3000. UBS is at 3300 in a recession scenario.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Alternative viewpoint: the high yield is a warning sign, plus you are buying into mortgages when rates are rapidly going up and credit quality will deteriorate.

High yield is either a warning sign of a dividend cut or an irrational price - meaning the price will move up to be more inline with its peers. NLY's peers yield 8-10% typically, so that would put NLY somewhere near $8 to be in line.

Valid point about credit quality in a sense- however, the one point I would make with regard to credit quality is that NLY sold a lot of their non-agency MBS assets recently and is very, very heavily weighted toward agency MBS. Agency MBS meaning all gov't baked MBS (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie).

IMO rising mortgage / rents are not necessarily a bad thing longer term. they have locked in tons of higher quality assets at low rates recently (obviously) and the spread with higher rates and rents should improve their profitability and economic impact moving forward. Govt entities are less at risk in this thesis.

 

[SpikeUM]

High yield is either a warning sign of a dividend cut or an irrational price - meaning the price will move up to be more inline with its peers. NLY's peers yield 8-10% typically, so that would put NLY somewhere near $8 to be in line.

Valid point about credit quality in a sense- however, the one point I would make with regard to credit quality is that NLY sold a lot of their non-agency MBS assets recently and is very, very heavily weighted toward agency MBS. Agency MBS meaning all gov't baked MBS (Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie).

IMO rising mortgage / rents are not necessarily a bad thing longer term. they have locked in tons of higher quality assets at low rates recently (obviously) and the spread with higher rates and rents should improve their profitability and economic impact moving forward. Govt entities are less at risk in this thesis.

Just think you are early, thats all.

 

[mr.h]

Oil prices dropping..Probably temporary

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Just think you are early, thats all.

You’re quite possibly right. I’ll buy more lower if you are.

Someone just hit a 5 million share NLY buy on the close (not me lol).

Edit: CEO also grabbed 200k shares on open market:

SEC-Show

otp.tools.investis.com

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Oil prices dropping..Probably temporary

Been buying XOM puts over the last three weeks.

 

[SpikeUM]

David is a permabear, but his thinking aligns now with most of Wall Street. Edit: most economists have now come to his point of view

Stock Market Bargain Hunters May Want to Wait

Investors should prune assets that are sensitive to the economy. Better positioned for gains: staples, utilities, and healthcare, strategists say.

www.barrons.com

 

[SpikeUM]

Been buying XOM puts over the last three weeks.

Great move, my sense is cash them in though, China is still partially shut down, Russia is using energy as a weapon, and the administration still hates the industry.

 

[SpikeUM]

Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until the Fed Eases

If history is any guide, the stock-market selloff might still be in its early stages.

www.wsj.com

 

[We the Boss]

Stocks Historically Don’t Bottom Out Until the Fed Eases

If history is any guide, the stock-market selloff might still be in its early stages.

www.wsj.com

My thinking is the bottom isn’t close to in.

 

[Empirical Cane]

BAC

Low 30s? Or maybe mid 20s?

 

[Mikeiavelli]

Mullen extends the $28 million convertible note with Esousa until July 2024

Written by Cláudio Afonso | info@claudio-afonso.com | LinkedIn | Twitter The California-based EV maker Mullen Automotive announced on Tuesday that it has extended the maturity of a senior secured c…

eletric-vehicles.com

Very smart move by the CEO of MULN. Basically turns Esousa into a long term investor by extending maturity by two years to July 2024.

This reduces payments during an economic downturn when every dollar counts. Also reduces likelyhood of dilution through conversion.

 

[SpikeUM]

BAC

Low 30s? Or maybe mid 20s?

Impossible to tell, but with the public/investors very pessimistic, record inflation and a looming recession, patience is a virtue.

 

[SpikeUM]

My thinking is the bottom isn’t close to in.

That has been my thought for a long time now, I have been bearish since late last year. However, its impossible to nail it, and we are obviously much closer to it.

 

[TheEye]

BAC

Low 30s? Or maybe mid 20s?

How long do you want to keep it? Short term, I would wait for the 20s. Long term buying now is good.

 

[mr.h]

My god..everything I own is up double digits..could we be nearing the bottom?
On the other hand we have another big rate hike commin..

 

[561caneforever]

My god..everything I own is up double digits..could we be nearing the bottom?
On the other hand we have another big rate hike commin..

The Fed fixed everything over the weekend. It's a miracle.
(sarcasm)

 

[SpikeUM]

80% of economists see 'stagflation' as a long-term risk. What it is and how to prepare for it

Stagflation refers to a combination of high inflation and high unemployment. Here's why experts are worried the economy may be susceptible to those conditions.

www.cnbc.com