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Statistical Look at OSU Defense

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Hurricane23 said:
This is the game that Mario should go bro ball, and pound it out as much as possible
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I don’t think you can run duo into the A-gaps and expect anything even remotely close to what we got against A&M. I’m not saying never do it, but this defense up its spine is light years better than A&M’s. I’m fine with trying to shorten the game (like we’ve basically been doing all year), but some tendency breakers would be great. How bout a toss sweep to Pringle with Cici leading the way? Run Malicat, but have him rip it to the perimeter on a tunnel. Let Reese and curry get vertical on you, and throw a screen or a shovel pass inside of them. Take a few straight vertical shots early and make their DBs cover your 50/50 ball WRs, and maybe that makes a safety hesitate in the run game. You’re probably not going to trick these kids, they’re too experienced and their coach is too good. Plus everyone on earth is focused on 10 wherever he goes. I said leading up to A&M, use that to your advantage. Use his as a pure decoy sometimes. We did literally none of that. Anytime he lined up in the backfield, he got the ball. In motion, the ball went to him. I think we threw 2 “traditional” WR targets to him the entire night. How bout Wednesday you put him in the slot, have him run fast jet motion across, fake the pop pass to him and have Lofton down block and then release into the flat on the opposite side. Play design off of Mali attention. You’re not going to beat this team with just bro ball.
 
ageezy said:
yeah ... we might as well get back on the plane and head back to dade
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OSU is a better team than UM. Period.

The facts are what they are.

People on here act like stating the obvious is a third degree felony. Doesn't mean anyone is rooting against the 'Canes, and hope they lose. It just means they have eyes and brains.
 
RedSquare said:
OSU is a better team than UM. Period.

The facts are what they are.

People on here act like stating the obvious is a third degree felony. Doesn't mean anyone is rooting against the 'Canes, and hope they lose. It just means they have eyes and brains.
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and we still dgaf ... everybody has a plan until the get punched in the mouth ... this has been 20 yrs in the making, it's bigger than numbers
Tyson GIF
 
RedSquare said:
OSU is a better team than UM. Period.

The facts are what they are.

People on here act like stating the obvious is a third degree felony. Doesn't mean anyone is rooting against the 'Canes, and hope they lose. It just means they have eyes and brains.
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I don't buy that. I agree that they have the larger number of top NFL draft picks. But you wrote "team". That includes all 22 starters, and another 20-30 rotational kids. Guys like Lightfoot, Scott (DT), Moore, Pringle and Lofton. That also includes team culture and coaching. I was never a fan of Day or Patricia, they out-talent you, not outcoach you.

I think this thing is a jump ball and it comes down to who executes better. If we play with the same intensity we played against TAMU without the wind, we're going to win.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
I don’t think you can run duo into the A-gaps and expect anything even remotely close to what we got against A&M. I’m not saying never do it, but this defense up its spine is light years better than A&M’s. I’m fine with trying to shorten the game (like we’ve basically been doing all year), but some tendency breakers would be great. How bout a toss sweep to Pringle with Cici leading the way? Run Malicat, but have him rip it to the perimeter on a tunnel. Let Reese and curry get vertical on you, and throw a screen or a shovel pass inside of them. Take a few straight vertical shots early and make their DBs cover your 50/50 ball WRs, and maybe that makes a safety hesitate in the run game. You’re probably not going to trick these kids, they’re too experienced and their coach is too good. Plus everyone on earth is focused on 10 wherever he goes. I said leading up to A&M, use that to your advantage. Use his as a pure decoy sometimes. We did literally none of that. Anytime he lined up in the backfield, he got the ball. In motion, the ball went to him. I think we threw 2 “traditional” WR targets to him the entire night. How bout Wednesday you put him in the slot, have him run fast jet motion across, fake the pop pass to him and have Lofton down block and then release into the flat on the opposite side. Play design off of Mali attention. You’re not going to beat this team with just bro ball.
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I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face “ this isn’t the game to play in a phone booth. Use space as an extra man , bigger throwing windows and gives wr’s more room for separation”
 
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Cribby said:
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face “ this isn’t the game to play in a phone booth. Use space as an extra man , bigger thieving windows and gives wr’s more room for separation”
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I want this to be the game we use Bauman as little as possible. 3-4 WR sets imo. Lofton far more than Bauman. 2 Rb setss with Fletcher and Pringle
 
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No one has scored more than 17 points against Ohio State this year. The truth hurts, but their defense has been historically good this year by every statistical metric. Matt Patricia was mocked when he was hired, but he's absolutely killed it as DC.

I don't see either team scoring more than 20, so if we get to 20 points, that might be enough to win.
 
Cribby said:
I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face “ this isn’t the game to play in a phone booth. Use space as an extra man , bigger thieving windows and gives wr’s more room for separation”
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1000000%. I think some of our fans got brainwashed or something by that A&M game.
 
We about to but 24 on them. Eff this crap tired of hearing about it. We hav better athletes then Indiana does and we’re about to come out and show something. Canes by 10. No more soft stuff. Let’s go!!!!
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
As many of us have been saying, IMO this game really comes down to Dawson/Beck vs Patricia and our offense versus their defense. I think we have an advantage on the other side of the ball, when our defense is on the field versus their offense, or it's at very worst a wash.

But when their defense is on the field versus our offense, IMO we have a massive challenge and whether or not we can actually move the ball and score points will dictate whether or not we win (no ****). So, where does their defense stack up? What does it excel at, and where can it be "attacked".

Spoiler alert, this isn't pretty. IMO this is the best defense in America, yes including Texas Tech, and is BY FAR the best, most talented, most physically imposing, and well coached defense we've seen all season. It's not even close.

Starting with the obvious, scoring defense, they are #1 in America. 8.8 points per game allowed. For context, the best full-season number for any school in the past 10 years is 10.4 for Michigan in 2023 (won the natty) and 10.4 also for UGA in 2021 (won the natty). This year's OSU team is 1.6 points better than both those defenses. Utterly insane. The Miami defense has been unreal this year...we give up 13.8 PPG, so they are a full 5 points better. They have given up TEN touchdowns in 12 games LOL.

So, how do they give up such a low number of points? Well, they start by giving up almost no explosive plays. In 12 games, they have surrendered a TOTAL of 84 plays that went for 10+ yards. Almost hard to comprehend. Miami gave up 124 such plays. OSU has faced 649 plays on defense this year....and 84 of them have gained 10+ yards. That's 13%. So basically, when you line up against them, for every 10 plays you run, you can expect ONE to go for 10+ yards. Almost comical. Within those 84 plays, only 56 of them have been through the air. So they are #1 in the country by a mile in 10+ yard passes allowed, 20+ yard passes allowed, and 30+ yard passes allowed. You simply cannot generate explosives on them, especially through the air. On the ground, they drop all the way to 4th in 10+ yard carries, 13th in 20+ yard carries, and 13th in 30+ yard carries. Yes, that was a joke, these numbers are still insane.

Alright, so they give up no explosives. But in the event you do get a few, can you get into the endzone. Well, they're insane there too. They've only allowed 23 redzone trips all season, which is great but it's #3 in America (Texas Tech and Indiana allowed fewer, Miami was 5th with 26). But once you get there, you can't score. They only allowed 8 TDs in the redzone all season, and that 34% TD rate is usually far and away #1 in a given year, but this year Indiana is actually even better.

So they give up no explosives. In the event you go get into the redzone, which happens less than twice a game, you can't score. But are you more likely to have success running or throwing? Well, neither, but let's look at the numbers in each specific area.

They are #4 in America in yards per carry allowed. Think, the Miami run defense, maybe a little better. That's who they are. Just a complete brick wall. They only average giving up 83.6 yards per game on the ground. But they go it more at the LOS...they are only 65th in TFLs. So they don't shoot gaps and penetrate and put you behind the sticks a lot, but what they do is completely suffocate you at the LOS and you might get 1 or 2 yards, but you're not getting 5 very often. It's kind of the opposite of A&M, who is #2 in TFLs, and even our defense, which is 18th. They are fine just standing your linemen up at the point of attack, filling gaps with their backers, and making it 2nd and 8 all day long.

In the air, this is where it gets really scary. They give up the fewest passing yards per game by a mile....133.8, the next best team is 15 yards behind. 133.8 for an entire season would be the best of the past decade by a long, long way. It's simply the best passing defense anyone has been on the field in well over 10 years. If you want a hint of optimism, they have only intercepted 7 passes all year, and they do allow 60.5% completions, which is 48th in the country. But the passes just don't go anywhere...you complete 60.5% of your throws but only for 5.5 yards per attempt. That means there is NOTHING down the field, and your pass catchers get swallowed as soon as they catch the ball.

So, what the **** does our offense do? Well, first is visit the nearest place of worship, and pray. Second is, perhaps try to attack in the short passing game. As I mentioned, you can complete some balls on them. They don't sack the QB very much (25th in the country), and you can complete 60+ percent. This is where Beck excels. We're likely not going to generate explosives down the field, literally no one has. So find a weak link (good luck) in the secondary, and see if you can get some choice routes in the middle of the field where you can complete a ball and slip a tackle. The tight ends in the seam need to have a big week. We're just not going to win much on the outside or anywhere near Downs. Also, as you'd expect, they're excellent on 3rd downs. 6th in the country. We just got embarrassed on 3rd down against the #1 3rd down defense in the country last week. Find a way to stay out of 3rd and long. If we can live in 3rd and 4 range, I think Beck can find enough time in the pocket to complete short passes for first downs. We catch the ball well, and Beck is incredibly accurate. When we do run it, we gotta get into the B and C gaps and away from McDonald. But honestly, I don't expect a ton in the run game. If we can get to 4 yards a carry, that's probably a massive win and takes some pressure off Beck.

Lastly, Dawson needs to be at his creative best in the redzone. We're probably only going to get 2-3 trips down there the whole game. When we do, we have to find a way to get 7's and not 3's. But make no mistake, this is by far the biggest challenge we've faced to date. IMO this game is a race to 20. Can we get to 20 on them without massive help? Turnovers, special teams, etc. I doubt it, but that's why we play the games. Time for Dawson and Beck to earn their paychecks. Give me 20 on offense and I think we can do this **** thing.
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I have have been blessed with gypsy intuition. what the data points have been feeding my brain is that carson beck is going to exceed expectations (my how he has fallen from a potential heisman candidate to . . . "carson beck is a game manager" and we "can't let him take shots or he will lose the game"). **** that. he's going to earn his $4mm this game. mario changed the talking points with the A&M win (justifying his $8mm/YR contract), carson can do that now (and work his way to a 1st or 2nd day pick) the current media angle is missing how successful this lad has been since 2022. LFG.
 
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JustAFanHTX said:
Just stay away from downs. We should be okay
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This is actually why I think Malicat won’t be useful this game. All that will do is explicitly put Downs into the box as I asssume Patricia will just have Downs following and locking in on Toney. We MUST have our other WRs step up and beat their CBs+Safeties. I think Toney needs to bring primarily the decoy this game cause trying to force feed him with Downs on him doesn’t sound like a great recipe.

I think Downs biggest strength is in run support. I want him away from the box.
 
scrantoncane said:
I thought the same thing watching the washington game. It was 13-6 at the end of the 3rd. Washington also failed to convert on a fake punt (if i recall correctly) and some other self-inflicted stuff, as you said. I posted elsewhere that I thought this game was not a great one as far as predictive value vs Miami because their defense way keyed on stopping Demond Williams' legs. We don;'t have that luxury.

I watched the extended highlights (but not every snap) of the Illinois game. That one was not as close as the score indicated. OSU smothered them.

But all and all, they did what they were supposed to do against a weak schedule and they got the 2 seed for it. They are a good team, no doubt. But they missed Oregon, USC, Iowa, etc, got Michigan in down year (plus it was a game they wanted badly after dropping 3 in a row to them), and got PSU without Allar and James Franklin. The ball bounced their way this season. I don't think one can deny that.

Personally, I trust carson beck. After watching the Indiana game, I would test their CB #7, Matthews. I thought he could be had.
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IIRC there was a horrifying penalty called against Washington in that one during that punt or right around then?

A 15 yarder that changed the game that was a miserable call
 
Calinative said:
This is actually why I think Malicat won’t be useful this game. All that will do is explicitly put Downs into the box as I asssume Patricia will just have Downs following and locking in on Toney. We MUST have our other WRs step up and beat their CBs+Safeties. I think Toney needs to bring primarily the decoy this game cause trying to force feed him with Downs on him doesn’t sound like a great recipe.

I think Downs biggest strength is in run support. I want him away from the box.
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Yeah down’s can play deep but that’s where we want him. If we allow them to play him in the box all game it’ll be a long night. He’ll control the game
 
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