I'm not demoralized, but I'm anxious.
All of us would've signed up for 5-1 and sweeping our rivals. This is modern college football. I didn't have Louisville as the loss - their OL looked miserable on tape - but maybe we should've seen it coming. Mario's Oregon teams routinely dropped these games, and this was his fifth loss as a double-digit favorite (tying him with Kalen DeBoer and Hugh Freeze). Either way, we enter the second half of the season as a Top 10 team.
The reason I'm anxious is the calendar. This is the stretch where we always collapse. Another loss would be devastating. We thought for a minute it might be easy, and now we're back to sniffing glue.
Our culture is about to get a stress test. Miami will be favorites in every game. The team is relatively healthy. If they stay on point and together, this will be a very successful season. But they need to deal with adversity for the first time in a while.
The first three drives set the tone for this game. We didn't do a good job of handling the bye/game/bye stretch, and it showed early. We couldn’t tackle, the team looked flat, and there was no juice in the building. On Louisville's first play, their RT and Jaleel Skinner execute a textbook double-team on Rueben Bain to pop Isaac Brown. Brohm calls a beautiful drive from there and Louisville scores a short TD.
We get the ball, Francis Mauigoa commits an 15-yard unsportsmanlike, and the drive is dead on arrival. We didn't run once because of down and distance. Three and out.
Louisville gets the ball at the Miami 46 after a good return. Brohm calls three papercuts for a first down, and then Chris Bell takes a crosser through the heart of our defense for six.
From that point, Louisville controlled the game. Brohm is the real deal and his team played hard. Miller Moss, who can be erratic, was decisive with a quick passing game that neutralized our pass rush (2.32 seconds before pass). I underrated Louisville's defense- they have good athletes who made some incredible plays to capitalize on our mistakes. They deserved to win.
There were lot of reasons for the loss, but two stand out as obvious. We can't win with four interceptions. It took me back to 2023 because there wasn't even pressure. Just teams playing pass and reading our QB. We spent a lot time this off-season discussing Cam's failure to checkdown to Arroyo against GT, but Carson Beck made a similar mistake with Alex Bauman on the first INT. Beck needs to take the easy money when it's there. That's his game.
Beck's response will be the story of the season. The media is waiting for him to fold and lose the locker room, as evidenced by Danny Kannell's tweet. We all have have TVD PTSD as Miami fans. I think Beck is a different player, with more winning experience and a tighter relationship with his team. But he'll need to prove it.
The other story is the nine penalties. We’re 130th in penalties per game after finishing 98th last year. It’s a consistent problem that causes us to play below our talent level.
A lot of the focus will be on the running game. I don’t expect a wholesale philosophy change after years of success, but I do think you’ll see more outside runs going forward. We’re only averaging 80 yards over the past two games. That’s unacceptable, even if teams are scheming to take away the run.
But I thought the biggest issue with the running game was the penalties. Our whole philosophy is based on controlling down and distance, and we were always behind the sticks because of unforced errors. We only had 18 total rushing attempts in a close low-scoring game. Louisville controlled the pace with their quick passing, and they ran better than they have all season. It felt like every time Heatherman went to a different pressure look, Brohm called an Isaac Brown run right into the soft spot of the front.
Miami's offensive line played their worst game of the season. While pass blocking was mostly fine, Matt McCoy got beat clean on a crucial fourth down and caused Beck’s third INT. With good protection, Beck finds Elija Lofton wide open in the flat.
Three players are still dragging on the offense. Lofton has regressed as a blocker and still looks lumbering in the passing game, while also making mental mistakes. Jordan Lyle is bouncing around and struggling to fit the run scheme. Jojo Trader only played one play.
There’s reason the staff is force-feeding Lyle/Lofton and pushing JoJo- they’ve seen their impact ability in practice. But for a variety of reasons, it’s not translating to production. The good news is it’s a long season. But it’s not forever, and we need to see signs of life soon.
Malachi Toney has been consistently performing like one of the best playmakers in America. His physicality is the revelation to me- he's stiff-arming and running over older players like nothing. Him and CJ Daniels are a playoff-caliber duo, but they need help.
The other star receiver on the field was Bell. I called him the best draft-eligible receiver earlier in the week, and that might’ve been selling him short. He’s playing like the next best receiver in America after Jeremiah Smith. Unreal horsepower.
From a playcalling standpoint, two things stuck out to my untrained eyes- we should have played with more urgency and tempo down in the 4th, and we got too screen-happy in the 3rd. Even in a bad game, we need to trust our veteran QB to make decisions with good pass protection.
Random personnel note- we played both Booker Pickett and Herbert Scroggins with Akheem Mesidor banged up. I wonder if we see them (and Marquise Lightfoot) more against Stanford.
I saved this one for last, because it’s not an excuse. But the atmosphere was terrible to start the game. Some of it was traffic and people getting off work. That’s not a fan issue. But the student section was half full and taking selfies. Let’s be better.
The good news is that we don’t have to wait through another bye. We will see how this team responds right away. Go Canes.
But Dawson, for some reason, i NEVER see a play we run and go “ohhhh sh*t!!”….he never brings you to your feet with creativity. The most i saw this year was a basic jetsweep to Malichi (which worked
)…but he has no idea how to put DB and persimeter players in conflict in space and have to make a tackle in open field. Instead, we run into 9-10 bodies between our offensive line and the defenders ….frustrating
