9 wins , acccg and then a nice bowl is a success. 10-3 is very doable and would be huge with recruiting.
I look at this on a marginal 2021-2022 comparative basis. And I am not going to indulge the silly "yes we lost a couple of games by one possession, but you should also count our one possession wins as possible losses" argument.
In 2021, Miami finished in 2nd in the Coastal. Outside of Coastal champ Pitt (who we beat), ALL OTHER Coastal teams were .500 or below in BOTH conference and overall records. For the WHOLE conference, Miami was the 5th best team, and we beat 2 of the 4 teams "above" us (and did not play the other two). Our three losses were last-possession issues to lesser teams. We went 4-2 against the Coastal and 1-1 against the Atlantic.
Player losses - D'Eriq King, Mike Harley, Charleston Rambo, Zach McCloud, Jon Ford, Jarrid Williams, Bubba Bolden, Cam Harris, Navaughn Donaldson, Deandre Johnson. EXACTLY ONE guy was drafted. A couple of guys missed most of the season due to injury, so they didn't exactly impact the 2021 W-L record. I'm not hating on the guys, I love them, but a factual analysis will support the obvious conclusion that these guys were not leading UM to victory last year, outside of Harley/Rambo. So "what we lose" is not nearly as profound as, say, what Pitt lost in a first-round draft pick QB and a Biletnikoff-winning WR.
Player additions - Looking at the above list of losses, I feel like we adequately replaced THE 2021 OUTPUT with Portal and HS signees WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WIDE RECEIVER. And even Harley/Rambo were not SOOOOO talented that they were drafted. They were PRODUCTIVE, and I feel like we will replace their stats with a combo of TEs, RBs, and WRs who step up.
OTHER teams - The one Coastal team that finished ahead of us (Pitt), who we beat, suffered significant personnel losses. Same with North Carolina, a team that beat us. You can't limit this to "QB is one position, though", as QB is the single most important position. Nobody else in the Coastal with a 2021 record at or below .500 has made such significant personnel strides as to leapfrog Miami. There is literally no statistical or personnel reason why Miami should not go 6-0 against the Coastal, beside the mopey annual "but we always lose a game we shouldn't" argument. I am chalking up a 1-1 record against the Atlantic, with a loss to Clemson and a win over F$U. I'm also penciling in a 3-1 OOC record, I don't think we lose to Bethune-Cookman, Southern Miss, or Middle Tennessee State.
Coaching - We have a DRAMATIC improvement here. Let's not forget, we had porsters who thought "if Borregales hits that kick against UVa and we don't blow 4th and 14 against F$U, then Manny has shown enough improvement to be retained". The reality is that our coaching will be even THAT MUCH BETTER than last year's group that won 5 out of our final 6 games. As for "coaching" against our ACC rivals, I don't think there were any significant changes to fear; Duke, Virginia, and VaTech got new coaches, and none of those guys are to be feared. They certainly aren't transforming those 3 teams as dramatically as Mario is doing for Miami.
I respect all the "but it takes time" and the "be patient" arguments. But we went 7-5 with 3 last-possession losses. Mario, the coaches, and the personnel improvements are certainly collectively capable of reversing those 3 losses. Let's not forget, Butch inherited a questionable Erickson team with cloud issues, and he finished Year 1 tied for first in the Big East (our one conference loss was to co-champ VaTech). Same exact result in Year 2, before we cratered due to the scholarship losses in Year 3.
I've tried to analyze this a million ways, without taking "optimism" or "love of alma mater" into account. I just see 10 wins. That's not "high expectations", that's just a realistic look at who we play, what they have, and what is going on at Miami.
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