NFL OT - Carolina Panthers trade for the #1 overall pick

[cway313]

1 winning season and Brad Holmes loses his ****** mind. I thought Cam Sutton would be our darkest moment this free agency.

 

[Brooklyndee]

Both those deals from last year is why teams are driving the market down now.

They would rather for team friendly deals like what Mahomes did than being forced to allocate over 40% of their Cap to the QB, even if it’s Franchise guys like Burrow, Herbert etc..

I'd give Burrow or Herbert far more GAURENTEED than I'd give Lamar. Contracts are all about probabilities. If you think Lamar can stay healthy throughout that contract than you give it to him. Seeing as though no one is biting at trade packages for him though tells you NO ONE thinks he stays healthy throughout. He wants a fully gaurenteed deal then you tell him no problem I'll do 3 years and 90 gaurenteed. 30 a year take it or leave it. I'm not locking up the future of my franchise on a QB for 10 years even 6 plus that wants to be paid 45 to 50 a year all of it gaurenteed. That's career suicide.

 

[CaneLife93]

Carolina doesn't have their pick next year.

Yep, I totally forgot

 

[Brooklyndee]

You were probably being sarcastic but 40% of the cap is $90M. Top Qbs signing new contracts are in line to make in the $50M/yr+ range which is is bout 22% of Cap. A team-friendly deal now-a-days for an elite QB like Burrow would be him ONLY getting 18%-20% of the cap. (Mahomes is at 21% this year).

The #1 pick in the draft will make 3% of the Cap year 1, and if they take the 5th year option on a Qb who has made just 1 pro bowl, they will earn about 13% of the cap. So Clearly for a non-rookie QB, the absolute minimum for any long-term starter is at that 13% of cap number (this year that'd be $30M). That would be for even a below-average multi-year starter. People are living in the past if they think $30M is a lot for a starting QB in the NFL. $40M is what you pay an average young starter like Daniel Jones now lol.

That's not sustainable & the giants are the laughing stock of the league right now with giving Danny pennies that deal. Numbers keep shooting up because the cap keeps shooting up. Those numbers will be going back down after next year for atleast 4-5 years in succession. Only QB I take in this draft and see him as a long term threat is probably stroud. He catches my attention. Bryce young Is too small. Don't think his body can hold up and Richardson and Levis just do nothing for me.

 

[252cane]

I'd give Burrow or Herbert far more GAURENTEED than I'd give Lamar. Contracts are all about probabilities. If you think Lamar can stay healthy throughout that contract than you give it to him. Seeing as though no one is biting at trade packages for him though tells you NO ONE thinks he stays healthy throughout. He wants a fully gaurenteed deal then you tell him no problem I'll do 3 years and 90 gaurenteed. 30 a year take it or leave it. I'm not locking up the future of my franchise on a QB for 10 years even 6 plus that wants to be paid 45 to 50 a year all of it gaurenteed. That's career suicide.

30 aint enough when a guy like carr got 100 mil guaranteed and is making 37 a year

 

[calinative umstudent]

That's not sustainable & the giants are the laughing stock of the league right now with giving Danny pennies that deal. Numbers keep shooting up because the cap keeps shooting up. Those numbers will be going back down after next year for atleast 4-5 years in succession. Only QB I take in this draft and see him as a long term threat is probably stroud. He catches my attention. Bryce young Is too small. Don't think his body can hold up and Richardson and Levis just do nothing for me.

If Strouds tape for his career was more like his game against Georgia he would be the unquestioned #1 pick. But as it stands he only showed that ability in 1 game in his career. Granted it was in the biggest moment of his career as well... But based on everything I think Young is the best QB in this draft. His height and weight is a real issue. He is basically an even skinnier Kyler Murray and slightly slower in a straight line. The thing with young is he can see the field so well, is hella quick and good under pressure, and just generally has always been elite. If he were 6'2" even, there would be no question he'd be #1 pick.
So for me Young and Stroud are definitely top 2. Stroud only really has a chance at being top pick if the panthers (or texans) are just really put-off by Youngs size. Personally I wouldn't rule out Young just because of that. Ultimately maybe it will result in more injuries, but I think he is the most likely to just be a really good QB.

Anthony Richardson probably actually has one of the higher floors IF he goes to the right team. If the Falcons trade up to 3 to draft him, I think he will actually be pretty **** good immediately playing for Arthur Smith. Dudes accuracy is all over the place, but the same way people want to knock Young for his size, at the end of the day Richardsons size and athleticism make him a potential top QB AT LEAST short term. If the Falcons had Richardson, I really think he's got a Lamar Jackson 2019/2020 type season potential under him. Is he a guy you really want as a 10 year starter? not really. Is he ever going to be an accurate Qb that wins purely with his arm? no. Does he need to be to bring your team to consistently win and make playoff runs? Also no.

Will Levis I think is the worst of the 4. He is the guy that needs the most time to develop purely because his decision making is dog ****. The upside is 2 years ago he played in an NFL offense and had weapons and delivered. Last year without that OC and weapons he was ***. But he is decently accurate. And he has a pretty good arm. And he's obviously built really well too - thicker than Stroud and obviously young... He's definitely got Potential. But Would I ever draft a QB that puts Mayo in his Coffee? No.

Overall I actually think this is a solid QB class. Don't think there is a Burrow/Lawrence level Qb. But going to be some solid starters.

 

[Brooklyndee]

30 aint enough when a guy like carr got 100 mil guaranteed and is making 37 a year

I agree it's not enough. I'm simply saying saying if he wants a fully gaurenteed contract than this is the concessions I'd demand. Obviously it wouldn't happen. But to any competent gm NEITHER is his fully gaurenteed contract at the yearly salary he deserves.

 

[252cane]

I agree it's not enough. I'm simply saying saying if he wants a fully gaurenteed contract than this is the concessions I'd demand. Obviously it wouldn't happen. But to any competent gm NEITHER is his fully gaurenteed contract at the yearly salary he deserves.

Lamar know he ain’t getting no fully guaranteed contract helł Mahomes don’t even got that

 

[calinative umstudent]

I'd give Burrow or Herbert far more GAURENTEED than I'd give Lamar. Contracts are all about probabilities. If you think Lamar can stay healthy throughout that contract than you give it to him. Seeing as though no one is biting at trade packages for him though tells you NO ONE thinks he stays healthy throughout. He wants a fully gaurenteed deal then you tell him no problem I'll do 3 years and 90 gaurenteed. 30 a year take it or leave it. I'm not locking up the future of my franchise on a QB for 10 years even 6 plus that wants to be paid 45 to 50 a year all of it gaurenteed. That's career suicide.

Thats just the new normal dawg.

$30M is a team friendly deal now. Thats basically the 12% number that most people reference when talking about SB Qb Pay and how having a QB at or below that %, statistically allows your team to build around the QB really well. Though that is signficantly influenced by Brady. The Most a SB Qb has been paid is like 18% of salary cap (equivalent to $40.5M this yr, or $42.5M next year).

$50M is top 5 Franchise QB money. Guys that you don't give a **** what it costs you pay them. That is Mahomes, Burrow, Allen, Lawrence.

Lamar if he wants fully guaranteed should realistically get a 4 yr $160-180M deal. The problem with him getting a fully guaranteed deal is NOT the Amount really, its the length that is the problem. I think even if he wanted $50M guaranteed per year, A team would seriously consider it for 3 years... At the end of the day he is only 26. Like the Falcons, paying Lamar Jackson for that type of Run heavy offense (Arthur Smith ran the Titans offense when Tannehill was good, and last year was like the only team to run more than pass), would be 100% worth it.

But then again instead of paying $45-50M/yr for 3 years they can trade just like two 2nds to trade up to 3 and draft ANthony Richardson and have him for 5 year at significantly less than Paying Lamar for 1 season...

 

[Brooklyndee]

If Strouds tape for his career was more like his game against Georgia he would be the unquestioned #1 pick. But as it stands he only showed that ability in 1 game in his career. Granted it was in the biggest moment of his career as well... But based on everything I think Young is the best QB in this draft. His height and weight is a real issue. He is basically an even skinnier Kyler Murray and slightly slower in a straight line. The thing with young is he can see the field so well, is hella quick and good under pressure, and just generally has always been elite. If he were 6'2" even, there would be no question he'd be #1 pick.
So for me Young and Stroud are definitely top 2. Stroud only really has a chance at being top pick if the panthers (or texans) are just really put-off by Youngs size. Personally I wouldn't rule out Young just because of that. Ultimately maybe it will result in more injuries, but I think he is the most likely to just be a really good QB.

Anthony Richardson probably actually has one of the higher floors IF he goes to the right team. If the Falcons trade up to 3 to draft him, I think he will actually be pretty **** good immediately playing for Arthur Smith. Dudes accuracy is all over the place, but the same way people want to knock Young for his size, at the end of the day Richardsons size and athleticism make him a potential top QB AT LEAST short term. If the Falcons had Richardson, I really think he's got a Lamar Jackson 2019/2020 type season potential under him. Is he a guy you really want as a 10 year starter? not really. Is he ever going to be an accurate Qb that wins purely with his arm? no. Does he need to be to bring your team to consistently win and make playoff runs? Also no.

Will Levis I think is the worst of the 4. He is the guy that needs the most time to develop purely because his decision making is dog ****. The upside is 2 years ago he played in an NFL offense and had weapons and delivered. Last year without that OC and weapons he was ***. But he is decently accurate. And he has a pretty good arm. And he's obviously built really well too - thicker than Stroud and obviously young... He's definitely got Potential. But Would I ever draft a QB that puts Mayo in his Coffee? No.

Overall I actually think this is a solid QB class. Don't think there is a Burrow/Lawrence level Qb. But going to be some solid starters.

Agreed. But if that's how you're looking at it why would you make young the #1? That dude is LITTLE. Long term that's gonna be rough. QB is trending back towards a position that requires durability. That ain't him. Same token who out of the other qbs checks off all the boxes either or atleast more than the others?

 

[calinative umstudent]

Agreed. But if that's how you're looking at it why would you make young the #1? That dude is LITTLE. Long term that's gonna be rough. QB is trending back towards a position that requires durability. That ain't him. Same token who out of the other qbs checks off all the boxes either or atleast more than the others?

Because drafting a QB doesn't need to be a 10+ year decision. Even if we say Young won't hold up due to his size, lets be realistic - he'll probably be fine for at least 5-8 years before anything really starts failing. And 5 years is what you really should be drafting based on - the length of his rookie deal. IN that time you can completely turn a franchise around and make a run for the SB while paying him peanuts.

I'd say Stroud can be like a Jared Goff / Matt Ryan ... but after seeing the Georgia Game maybe he has the ability to work way better than either of those two off schedule and be a play maker.... But should we really value 1 game that much? idk.
Young imo can definitely be a way more disciplined/better leader/face of franchise Kyler Murray.
Will Levis is like a Cutler/Zach Wilson/Drew Lock...
Anthony Richardson is obviously like Cam/Lamar...

 

[Brains]

Never forget that franchise prematurely ended the football souls of Barry Sanders AND Calvin Johnson...

"I was stuck in my contract with Detroit, and they told me, they would not release my contract, so I would have to come back to them. I didn't see the chance for them to win a Super Bowl at the time, and for the work I was putting in, it wasn't worth my time to keep on beating my head against the wall and not going anywhere. It's the definition of insanity."

-Calvin Johnson, speaking on why he retired at 30 coming off 1,214 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns in 16 games.

"And if the Jets would have offered to buyout the contract, I'd have stayed retired."

-Also Calvin Johnson, possibly.

 

[Brains]

Because drafting a QB doesn't need to be a 10+ year decision. Even if we say Young won't hold up due to his size, lets be realistic - he'll probably be fine for at least 5-8 years before anything really starts failing. And 5 years is what you really should be drafting based on - the length of his rookie deal. IN that time you can completely turn a franchise around and make a run for the SB while paying him peanuts.

5-8 years is ridiculously optimistic.

 

[calinative umstudent]

5-8 years is ridiculously optimistic.

No it isn't, everytime people freak out about small Qbs they end up relatively fine.

Bryce Young - 5'10", 29.3 BMI.
Kyler Murray - 5'10", 29.7 BMI. - Played 4 years.
Russell Wilson - 5'11" 28.4 BMI. - Has played 11 yrs.
Drew Brees - 6'1", 28.1 BMI. - Played 20 years.
Mike Vick - 6'1", 27.7 BMI. - Played 13 years.
Colt McCoy - 6'1" , 28.5 BMI. - Played 12 years.
Case Keenum - 6'1" 27.4 BMI. - Played 10 years.
Rex Grossman - 5'11", 30.3 BMI. - Played 9 years.
Tim Rattay - 6'1", 28.4 BMI. - Played 8 years.

... most of these guys weren't even close to the Quality of prospect that Bryce Young was either. Sure some are 6'1", but I included BMI to show that while taller they weren't as built and were possibly actually more frail.

 

[Brains]

No it isn't, everytime people freak out about small Qbs they end up relatively fine.

Bryce Young - 5'10", 29.3 BMI.
Kyler Murray - 5'10", 29.7 BMI. - Played 4 years.
Russell Wilson - 5'11" 28.4 BMI. - Has played 11 yrs.
Drew Brees - 6'1", 28.1 BMI. - Played 20 years.
Mike Vick - 6'1", 27.7 BMI. - Played 13 years.
Colt McCoy - 6'1" , 28.5 BMI. - Played 12 years.
Case Keenum - 6'1" 27.4 BMI. - Played 10 years.
Rex Grossman - 5'11", 30.3 BMI. - Played 9 years.
Tim Rattay - 6'1", 28.4 BMI. - Played 8 years.

... most of these guys weren't even close to the Quality of prospect that Bryce Young was either. Sure some are 6'1", but I included BMI to show that while taller they weren't as built and were possibly actually more frail.

I'll have to agree to disagree.

 

[BloodEunsOrangeAndGreen]

The bears can have Edwards. Good luck!!

The bears got the two linebacker I did not want as a dolphins fan. I don’t know much about David Long so can’t talk too much trash.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

No it isn't, everytime people freak out about small Qbs they end up relatively fine.

Bryce Young - 5'10", 29.3 BMI.
Kyler Murray - 5'10", 29.7 BMI. - Played 4 years.
Russell Wilson - 5'11" 28.4 BMI. - Has played 11 yrs.
Drew Brees - 6'1", 28.1 BMI. - Played 20 years.
Mike Vick - 6'1", 27.7 BMI. - Played 13 years.
Colt McCoy - 6'1" , 28.5 BMI. - Played 12 years.
Case Keenum - 6'1" 27.4 BMI. - Played 10 years.
Rex Grossman - 5'11", 30.3 BMI. - Played 9 years.
Tim Rattay - 6'1", 28.4 BMI. - Played 8 years.

... most of these guys weren't even close to the Quality of prospect that Bryce Young was either. Sure some are 6'1", but I included BMI to show that while taller they weren't as built and were possibly actually more frail.

At least half the guys on your list are great for making the point you are trying to rebut. And consider that "seasons" doesn't mean much for NFL QBs, especially the guys who end up barely playing as backups or who keep getting injured. Peak behind the curtain at games played.

Keenum has 78 games played over his 10 years.
40 total games played (5 per season) for Tim Rattay.
54 games played for Rex in a career with more picks than TDs.
Colt McCoy's "12 seasons" in the NFL (which includes 5 seasons where he made less than 30 pass attempts), but where he played in 55 total games.

All of those guys played in less than 5 seasons worth of games, regardless of how long they managed to stick around collecting checks in a league with a dearth of QB talent. ****, even Vick only averaging 11 games played per season comes out to less than 9 seasons of games.

Kyler is good and still young, but the jury is out on how long his career will last and the impact he has. He missed 3 games in 2021, and 6 games last season. There's already a fair chance he misses games to start season 5 recovering from his torn ACL in December. If you are looking at maximizing the 5 year window, his seems to be closing at a bad time for AZ.

Wilson and Brees are undeniable talents with very successful NFL careers. And Wilson has been especially durable. He might be the exception that proves the "under 6'1" rule." Of course, you didn't include guys like Pat White, Johnny Manziel, and Cade McNown, all of whom (off the top of my head) were 6'1" and failed and/or nearly died in the league.

There is a reason so few QBs under 6'1" are drafted.

 

[cway313]

Georgia DT Carter heavier, struggles at pro day

Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, considered a potential top pick in the NFL draft, was nine pounds heavier than he was at the NFL combine about two weeks ago and couldn't finish his position drills at Georgia's pro day on Wednesday.

www.espn.com

@calinative umstudent As I stated this is not the guy I would draft if I were the Lions. Everything about him screams bust. Extremely talented but already entitled. I hope Bears waste first here. @Rellyrell

 

[252cane]

No it isn't, everytime people freak out about small Qbs they end up relatively fine.

Bryce Young - 5'10", 29.3 BMI.
Kyler Murray - 5'10", 29.7 BMI. - Played 4 years.
Russell Wilson - 5'11" 28.4 BMI. - Has played 11 yrs.
Drew Brees - 6'1", 28.1 BMI. - Played 20 years.
Mike Vick - 6'1", 27.7 BMI. - Played 13 years.
Colt McCoy - 6'1" , 28.5 BMI. - Played 12 years.
Case Keenum - 6'1" 27.4 BMI. - Played 10 years.
Rex Grossman - 5'11", 30.3 BMI. - Played 9 years.
Tim Rattay - 6'1", 28.4 BMI. - Played 8 years.

... most of these guys weren't even close to the Quality of prospect that Bryce Young was either. Sure some are 6'1", but I included BMI to show that while taller they weren't as built and were possibly actually more frail.

All those guys have more weight than young. Kyler is hurt right now, Vick got banged up a bit, Brees had some injuries

 

[252cane]

Georgia DT Carter heavier, struggles at pro day

Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter, considered a potential top pick in the NFL draft, was nine pounds heavier than he was at the NFL combine about two weeks ago and couldn't finish his position drills at Georgia's pro day on Wednesday.

www.espn.com

@calinative umstudent As I stated this is not the guy I would draft if I were the Lions. Everything about him screams bust. Extremely talented but already entitled. I hope Bears waste first here. @Rellyrell

Idk dude was a beast in hs and then was a beast in college. I don’t know about the entitled stuff but he does have that off field issue going on. I would still take him if I’m Detroit. Maybe they could move back and still get him