I'll bite:
1. You are right, we don't know. But the sample size isn't so small anymore. Sure, it is an assumption, but from where you are sitting right now, today, do you think we are bringing in a portal QB next year? I'd bet the probability is above 75%.
2. That is fair. I'd rather bet on the guy with the perfect size and speed for our offense but fair enough.
3. If Auburn offered him guaranteed money for three years, then okay, that changes things. But as it stands today, we are committing to paying him for one year. If he's awesome, then we pay him more and that is a good problem to have. If he is a JAG, he portals elsewhere and he is someone else's problem. But if he is still here and getting paid as a junior, that means he is as advertised.