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On Judd Anderson

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PIPO said:
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i really don't get the star whores when it comes to qb's specifically. There's such a hilariously bad history of ratings among qb recruits and consistently those under evaluated turn out to be the cream of the crop

for physical / skill positions like DL, LB, Safety yeah but for qb's? just gotta trust Dawson's evals

don't have any reason him to doubt him
 
407cane said:
i really don't get the star whores when it comes to qb's specifically. There's such a hilariously bad history of ratings among qb recruits and consistently those under evaluated turn out to be the cream of the crop

for physical / skill positions like DL, LB, Safety yeah but for qb's? just gotta trust Dawson's evals

don't have any reason him to doubt him
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What's the percentage of 3* that pan out yearly?
 
Not a single person questioned the importance of blue-chip QB recruiting until after we landed Judd and some tried to spin a nonsensical narrative to cope with our issues at the position.

The top 2 picks in this past draft were 2 of the 3 five-star QB's from the 2020 class. Both put up 40+ points against UGA defenses when they had their full complement of WR's (Young in the 2021 SEC Championship and Stroud in the 2022 CFB Semifinals), despite how absurdly loaded those Bulldog defenses have been across the board under Kirby Smart.

Every single premier program and annual CFB playoff contender prioritizes recruiting premier QB's out of high school. If they don't hit, then they turn to the portal. But they dam sure don't give any credence to the "argument" that trusting 3* evals > prioritizing elite HS recruits at the most important position in the sport.
 
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One9 said:
more specifically 3* found by the Eval Krew?

i'll tell you: 100%. Em-Dawg WilliHIMs, future 1st rounder.
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2021 class are all draft eligble this year 34 QBs ranked 4* or higher. Another 121 3* that year. If you want a fun *'s dont matter comparison go take a look at the hit rate. This whole argument is stupid as ****. The trick is to find the right blue chip not skip the process entirely. For every Kenny Pickett their are 80+ Joe Schmos.
 
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407cane said:
i really don't get the star whores when it comes to qb's specifically. There's such a hilariously bad history of ratings among qb recruits and consistently those under evaluated turn out to be the cream of the crop

for physical / skill positions like DL, LB, Safety yeah but for qb's? just gotta trust Dawson's evals

don't have any reason him to doubt him
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Coaches will have outlier evals that do hit but in general they will always revert back closer to the mean. In the end no single individual ever regularly beats the market and that is what you are hanging your hopes on here. Sure it can happen but it is not likely. ****, for Miami that would mean they would hit on outliers back to back years in Judd and Emory.

Now you brought up stars, and we all know that a large part of the star system takes into account who is the said recruit being recruited by. If a DT is heavily courted by Kkkirby and UGA he will shoot up the rankings. So the question here is, and it doesn’t have to be a situation of perennial top 25 schools, but which QB gurus are after Judd? That right there should tell you a ton about a prospect. For instance, let’s go back to DT. Kkkirby and UGA are the standard but it’s telling if say Partridge at Pitt is after a DT as well. Here with Judd we have an instance where we are expecting Dawson to beat the market and it’s just not a good nor tenable spot to be in.
 
01Canes said:
Not a single person questioned the importance of blue-chip QB recruiting until after we landed Judd and some tried to spin a nonsensical narrative to cope with our issues at the position.

The top 2 picks in this past draft were 2 of the 3 five-star QB's from the 2020 class. Both put up 40+ points against UGA defenses when they had their full complement of WR's (Young in the 2021 SEC Championship and Stroud in the 2022 CFB Semifinals), despite how absurdly loaded those Bulldog defenses have been across the board under Kirby Smart.

Every single premier program and annual CFB playoff contender prioritizes recruiting premier QB's out of high school. If they don't hit, then they turn to the portal. But they dam sure don't give any credence to the "argument" that trusting 3* evals > prioritizing elite HS recruits at the most important position in the sport.
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I’ve had the same position since before Judd: spend money on the Portal and get cheap, high upside high school QBs. It’s common sense. Don’t blow your budget on a highly volatile position. If you’re going to spend, pay somebody with college film.

The best QBs in college and pro are either transfers, high-upside sleepers, or both.

Michael Penix
Caleb Williams
Bo Nix
Jordan Travis
Jayden Daniels
Dillon Gabriel
Michael Pratt
Jaxson Dart

In the pros, you have underrated guys like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lamar and transfers like Burrow and Hurts.

Pay for a safe transfer and take an athletic (preferably multisport) passer with tools. It’s the formula and the evidence is overwhelming.

Would Judd be my pick? Too many red flags for me. But it makes sense to take a cheap flyer on a potential stud and spend the money on an instant-impact transfer.
 
bobbydigius said:
Coaches will have outlier evals that do hit but in general they will always revert back closer to the mean. In the end no single individual ever regularly beats the market and that is what you are hanging your hopes on here. Sure it can happen but it is not likely. ****, for Miami that would mean they would hit on outliers back to back years in Judd and Emory.

Now you brought up stars, and we all know that a large part of the star system takes into account who is the said recruit being recruited by. If a DT is heavily courted by Kkkirby and UGA he will shoot up the rankings. So the question here is, and it doesn’t have to be a situation of perennial top 25 schools, but which QB gurus are after Judd? That right there should tell you a ton about a prospect. For instance, let’s go back to DT. Kkkirby and UGA are the standard but it’s telling if say Partridge at Pitt is after a DT as well. Here with Judd we have an instance where we are expecting Dawson to beat the market and it’s just not a good nor tenable spot to be in.
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Are we going to pretend the Terriers arent a powerhouse now?
 
DMoney said:
I’ve had the same position since before Judd: spend money on the Portal and get cheap, high upside high school QBs. It’s common sense. Don’t blow your budget on a highly volatile position. If you’re going to spend, pay somebody with college film.

The best QBs in college and pro are either transfers, high-upside sleepers, or both.

Michael Penix
Caleb Williams
Bo Nix
Jordan Travis
Jayden Daniels
Dillon Gabriel
Michael Pratt
Jaxson Dart

In the pros, you have underrated guys like Mahomes, Allen, Herbert, Lamar and transfers like Burrow and Hurts.

Pay for a proven transfer and take an athletic (preferably multisport) passer with tools. It’s the formula and the evidence is overwhelming.

Would Judd be my pick? Too many red flags for me. But it makes sense to take a cheap flyer on a potential stud and spend the money on an instant-impact transfer.
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Are you going to pretend its easier to recruit a portal QB? That would be highly disingenuous if anything that is harder. Even Nick Saban a 6* National champion had to settle for Tyler Buchner. Let's not be gullible here.
 
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cway313 said:
Are you going to pretend its easier to recruit a portal QB? That would be highly disingenuous if anything that is harder. Even Nick Saban a 6* National champion had to settle for Tyler Buchner. Let's not be gullible here.
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Bama was bottom-feeding in the Portal because they missed on all their blue chips. That’s what happens with volatile high school kids.

Their problem was waiting too long. They didn’t start looking until after spring.
 
cway313 said:
Are you going to pretend its easier to recruit a portal QB? That would be highly disingenuous if anything that is harder. Even Nick Saban a 6* National champion had to settle for Tyler Buchner. Let's not be gullible here.
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Buchner was a late lazy take. They should have been going after Tanner Mordecai last year. There were still a ton of former 4 star qb’s to choose from
 
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Portal, blue-chip, red-chip, idgaf but god I wish we would start recruiting more guys that can run at the position.
 
DMoney said:
Yes, it is easier to land a Portal QB than a top-ranked QB. There is plenty of supply and they have film to evaluate.
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They also are highly coveted and we aren't in the business of "overspending" from what has been reported. Not even sure what that means. If a Pratt or Vandergriff leaves they will either have a destination picked already. Or they will have suitors all over the country. The QB may have less risk but unquestionably will have a higher demand.
 
DC3 said:
He’s better than the Jackson kid who just de committed/probably got dropped from Ole Miss.
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I’ve said this the entire time and even absolutely roasted Judd early in the season this year. Still think that’s the case. And yes Ole Miss told him to find somewhere else to play college ball.

Judd has made serious progress since moving to Warner Robins. Weird because I think Jones County has the better coach. His OL is better at WR and gives him time to step into and make his throws and he’s getting more comfortable. He also has an elite HS WR that he can just throw it up to.
 
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