On Judd Anderson

[Rellyrell]

The starters were probably better in 18, but there was more depth in 17.

Regardless we fielded better DL play in 2018 w/ that same QB who had the Cinderella slipper on for 10 games only.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Isn't this an important aspect to the whole argument though? We don't have any 4 or 5 stars for these projects QBs to beat and out-perform. TVD gained our confidence because he beat out Garcia, who was ranked higher than him, and many believed Garcia was the better QB.

As for the Air comment, if you take Navarro's word (which I don't), then the staff thought Air and Judd were of equal competency, and it is very hard for me to see that being the case.

Seems like the goal is stack talent at OL/DL, then DB/WR, and then every other position. If TVD and Dawson light it up this year then this whole conversation will probably end up being meaningless because we should get the interest of talented players.

But you're missing the point. The top 100 kids (5 star and very high 4-star) are often very overrated in the first place. Who care's if you sign a flop of a 5-star that gets beat out? That's call a miss.

As I've said, you need to identify guys you think can develop into the type of starter that can succeed in your offense... and get as many of them as ******* possible because you're going to be wrong about them plenty. As are the best QB evaluators in the country, including the NFL, that, with years of ESPN, CBS, FOX and coaches tape, wonderlics, combines, pro days and interviews, still miss on QB's half the time. Now try to evaluate HS kids who are still growing, get sub par coaching, and play in 50 different states and at 5-7 different levels in each state with the NCAA telling you when you can and can't go watch them.

 

[cway313]

Uh, right, except not only can't you be sure that any QB is ready to come in and "compete for playing time," the data says the odds are against you that the "top guy" you got a commit from will ever even become an actual QB1. You need to catch up on this thread.

No player in high-school is a sure thing. Its about expectation. A guy like Cade Klubnik is viewed as QB1 because they expect him to get to campus and compete to play. A guy like Emory that gets to campus is expected to wait in the wings and develop. Sometimes it doesn't work but no one in the big leagues gets deterred.

 

[CanesSkins26]

But you're missing the point. The top 100 kids (5 star and very high 4-star) are often very overrated in the first place. Who care's if you sign a flop of a 5-star that gets beat out? That's call a miss.

As I've said, you need to identify guys you think can develop into the type of starter that can succeed in your offense... and get as many of them as ******* possible because you're going to be wrong about them plenty. As are the best QB evaluators in the country, including the NFL, that, with years of ESPN, CBS, FOX and coaches tape, wonderlics, combines, pro days and interviews, still miss on QB's half the time. Now try to evaluate HS kids who are still growing, get sub par coaching, and play in 50 different states and at 5-7 different levels in each state with the NCAA telling you when you can and can't go watch them.

Except that in recruiting perception matters. We are having major issues recruiting impact, 4/5 star WRs and those players want to go play with top qbs not 3 star projects (even if they do have the traits the OC wants).

 

[cway313]

But you're missing the point. The top 100 kids (5 star and very high 4-star) are often very overrated in the first place. Who care's if you sign a flop of a 5-star that gets beat out? That's call a miss.

As I've said, you need to identify guys you think can develop into the type of starter that can succeed in your offense... and get as many of them as ******* possible because you're going to be wrong about them plenty. As are the best QB evaluators in the country, including the NFL, that, with years of ESPN, CBS, FOX and coaches tape, wonderlics, combines, pro days and interviews, still miss on QB's half the time. Now try to evaluate HS kids who are still growing, get sub par coaching, and play in 50 different states and at 5-7 different levels in each state with the NCAA telling you when you can and can't go watch them.

You keep accusing everyone of missing the point. Maybe (Definitely) it's because the point is ****** stupid and it's being ignored.

 

[JD08]

QB1= ready to come in compete for playing time.
QB2= develop 2-3 years hope for the best.

Here, let me help for those looking for absolutes.

QB1 - MORE LIKELY to be able to compete for playing time in their first year.
QB2 - MORE LIKELY to need development before POTENTIALLY being able to see playing time.

 

[L A M P]

QB1= ready to come in compete for playing time.
QB2= develop 2-3 years hope for the best.

My issue is it’s an imperfect projection at best.

Who ends up being Blake Barnett/Philip Sims & who ends up as Bryce Young/ Tua. Hard to tell. And those are supposedly can’t miss, QB1a guys.

Then mix in a Mac Jones. A guy fans think shouldn’t be a take. QB2slow. Hard to tell until they arrive.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

Except that in recruiting perception matters. We are having major issues recruiting impact, 4/5 star WRs and those players want to go play with top qbs not 3 star projects (even if they do have the traits the OC wants).

This is 100% true. Which is why it's nice when the guys at the top of your board coincide with the kids who are getting hyped - for recruiting purposes. We wanted Air in this class too.

But conversely a lot of these hype guys are entitled and will jump ship when they face any adversity. As I posted in here, 70% of the QB's who were rated in the top 100 overall during a three year period did nothing at the school they first committed to. 70%!

Hey, it's not an easy biz. If it was, these coaches wouldn't make what they do. We are going to need to land top kids at all positions. But we talk about how it's not going be an overnight thing. This might be part of it. 2023+TVD+Dawson+much improved OL will hopefully show the WR's that they should come. That might be late flips in this cycle, or mean we aren't going to get the top guys until 2024. And keep in mind we are recruiting really well at TE and RB while we are working towards proof of concept. That will help. I know we all want instant gratification, but I just want to see the program improve and become more stable each and every year from year 0 on.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

No player in high-school is a sure thing. Its about expectation. A guy like Cade Klubnik is viewed as QB1 because they expect him to get to campus and compete to play. A guy like Emory that gets to campus is expected to wait in the wings and develop. Sometimes it doesn't work but no one in the big leagues gets deterred.

Yeah, 70% of the time it "doesn't work," not "sometimes." I don't know what you do for business, but that's called broken.

 

[DTP]

TVD wasn’t a “lower” 4 star QB. He was a top247 recruit in the nation & the #7 overall QB in the nation.

Tyler was a 3 star on 247 and a lower 4 star .9173 composite rating. He was the #7 "pro style" passer in the nation.

 

[cway313]

My issue is it’s an imperfect projection at best.

Who ends up being Blake Barnett/Philip Sims & who ends up as Bryce Young/ Tua. Hard to tell. And those are supposedly can’t miss, QB1a guys.

Then mix in a Mac Jones. A guy fans think shouldn’t be a take. QB2slow. Hard to tell until they arrive.

That's name of the game. Hence why you see Alabama OSU Clemson not skipping out on signing a premire guy year after year. Once a guy like Bryce Young or CJ Stroud goes to draft its on full on battle amongst blue chip guys. Whoever isn't good enough hits the road and they recycle the process.

 

[TRick72]

Why are we ignoring how UGA’s vaunted defenses gave up 40+ against the Bryce Young-led Bama offense with a healthy Williams/Metchie duo at WR and 40+ against the CJ Stroud-led OSU offense with Harrison/Egbuka in the semifinal last year?

Could you imagine a Miami offense performing at that level against the most stacked defense in the country instead of getting booed for kicking a field goal in the closing seconds of a massacre to avoid getting shutout against Clemson (see 2017) or putting up less than 100 total yards in a game?

The elite QB/WR model has proven to be as sustainable as any in modern day CFB. If throwing most of your money at DL was the clear-cut best strategy, then why isn’t Texas A&M a dominant program right now with the DL classes they’ve landed in recent years?

Speaking of Harrison/Egbuka, those 2 along with TreVeyon Henderson were the skill positions recruits that “expensive” 5 star QB “bust” Quinn Ewers along with 5 Star QB Kyle McCord attracted to their class.

Meanwhile, here are the skill position players that inexpensive potential “diamond in the rough” Emory Williams
attracted to his class……

 

[RedSquare]

I mentioned this yesterday. Watching his HL’s and game film most of his throws were down field , like an alarming rate for HS. That explains the comp percentage. I didn’t see many layups like most offenses have these days. **** a quarter of the throws now are layups. Screens / bubbles / flares or rpo’s.

this

 

[Rellyrell]

Tyler was a 3 star on 247 and a lower 4 star .9173 composite rating. He was the #7 "pro style" passer in the nation.

Stop it;

1. His composite rating was Top247; that’s what we go by.
2. A “lower” 4 star is any player who is a fringe 3-star which is the .8900 clip.

 

[Cryptical Envelopment]

You keep accusing everyone of missing the point. Maybe (Definitely) it's because the point is ****** stupid and it's being ignored.

Everyone?

And ignored? Weird because I'm replying to people who are replying to me and tagging me. You need attention or something?

Block me if you're getting triggered (again). And I've been in alignment with D$ and Cribby on some of this stuff as well (edit: see the next post below lol).

You know since you've started stalking me I've actually paid attention to you for the first time, and I see right through you. You're a classic "moves the goalposts" and "twists and deflects" type in order to find something that lets you stir the ****. Super, super boring.

 

[DMoney]

This notion of needing a top 100 ranked player as a QB is a strawman argument; but let’s address that really quick: U say 67% is not a high bar, but it surely is when there is only a 19 game sample size.
Regardless let’s go back to ur point:
2003/4 - Top 100 QB
2004/5 - Top 100 QB
2005/6 - Top 100 QB
2006/7 - Top 100 QB
2008/9 - Top 100 QB
2010/11 - Top 100 QB
2011/12 - Top 100 QB
2012/13 - Top 100 QB
2013/14 - Top 100 QB
2016/17 - Top 100 QB
2017/18 - Top 100 QB
2018/19 - Top 100 QB
2020/21 - Top 100 QB

It's not a strawman, it's the root of the argument.

I said if we're going to spend big on QBs, we should get proven Portal kids. They're safer bets and other positions are harder to find in the Portal. Somebody disagreed and said that Top 100 QBs are a "good investment." @Cryptical Envelopment nuked that argument pretty quick, noting that 70% of those kids transfer and are often beaten out by lower-ranked players. I also noted that teams win championships without elite QB recruits (including the past four years) but never win without elite DLs.

As far as your list, it includes Mac Jones (a three star), Tua (who played two quarters) and Cam Newton (a transfer). But the rest of the post reveals another issue. You said:

We love talking Mahomes, Allen, & Herbert on this board whenever we miss out on a target & pick up a QB2 type. We’re thinking NFL versions & not collegiate versions.

OK.
Mahomes at TT
2015-2016 (starter): 12-13
Avg. record/yr as starter: 6-7

Allen at Wyoming
2015-2016: 19-9
Avg. record/yr as starter: 9-4

Herbert at UO:
2016-2019: 29-14
Avg. record/yr as starter: 8-4

Are you suggesting that Mahomes and Herbert weren't better players in college than, say, an AJ McCarron? They were a million times better. McCarron just played on a better team. QB is unique in that the truly elite players are almost all non-elite recruits. You don't see that at DL with guys like Jeffrey Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, Chris Jones, Myles Garrett and the Bosas (all five stars).

That doesn't mean a blue-chip QB isn't more likely to succeed than a non-blue chip-- of course they are. That's true at every position. But blue-chip QBs bust more than other positions, and the truly elite guys are usually the product of evals. That tells me the smart play is to pay big money for the proven commodities and chase cheap upside in high school kids.

 

[kccanefan]

My issue is not with the kid himself. I'm leaning on Shannon's evaluation as he's offered and almost had two of the better low rated college QB's recently in Jones (Bama) and Bennett (UGA). He had Jones committed to Kentucky before he left. So it seems like he's a decent evaluator of talent. It's more the timing and the optics of the situation that puts a damper on the commitment. Recruiting is very much a sales pitch. Good players want to play with other good players and momentum is pretty key as well. To me to announce his commitment right before you lose out on Noland just seems like a move of desperation. In addition, trying to oversell and pass him off as a QB1 is a bad look. I'm not getting too bent out of shape right now because we're 8 months away before early signing day. The season and TVD is going to decide how to QB recruiting goes. The offense looks better we'll be in good shape for a transfer or another talented QB from HS.

All that said we have no momentum going in recruiting right now. Hopefully that changes soon. I'm all for building the trenches first as that's where the game is won and lost, but we need for someone to jump on board to get this year going.

 

[SSCane]

I don’t have a problem taking a developmental QB. The problem I have is that we’re after some top receivers.

After the year we just had it’s gonna be very difficult to convince them that this is the guy that they should be following.

100% agree.
Also, this is the 3rd year in a row, we're signing a development QB. (Brown, Williams and now Judd).

 

[cway313]

Yeah, 70% of the time it "doesn't work," not "sometimes." I don't know what you do for business, but that's called broken.

How many 3* compete for title yearly Ill

Speaking of Harrison/Egbuka, those 2 along with TreVeyon Henderson were the skill positions recruits that “expensive” 5 star QB “bust” Quinn Ewers along with 5 Star QB Kyle McCord attracted to their class.

Meanwhile, here are the skill position players that inexpensive potential “diamond in the rough” Emory Williams
attracted to his class……

None of that matters @Cryptical Envelopment is gonna convince us that because Quinn never started a game that OSU wasted money and he was a failed investment. Collateral benefits aren't important. Think of the 5* beating down the door to play with Judd in college because no QB is a sure thing.

 

[Page305]

15 tuddies, 13 innies..... Maaaaaan idgaf how he performs in this elite 11 bs. This was a horrible take. **** don't look like big boy recruiting to me! Somebody lied!