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Notre Dame a 3.5 point favorite (All Miami-ND, Mali News)

Remember the million times we heard "we didn't expect or prep for how they came out on defense, did things they never showed on film prior to our game" as an excuse for our poor offensive performances?

Other teams can scheme up a whole new style of game plan in a week but we cant even break a few tendencies. Sheesh

Bill B post game presser:
"They didn't mix it up. They did what they did the whole game. They ran what they ran the whole game which is honestly what they've been running the whole year."
 
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RedSquare said:
I would take ND and lay the points.

The better bet, however, regardless of what happens on Saturday with the fighting pedophiles ... will be when (IF) we play Wake in the ACC Championship game. UM will be favored. Take Wake and the points, whatever they are. Wake is a complete team, much more so than Miami .... although our offense is certainly better.

But I would go with the complete team (Wake) over UM, which is, frankly, a one trick pony.
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I wish they would add a you're clueless button.
 
RedSquare said:
I would take ND and lay the points.

The better bet, however, regardless of what happens on Saturday with the fighting pedophiles ... will be when (IF) we play Wake in the ACC Championship game. UM will be favored. Take Wake and the points, whatever they are. Wake is a complete team, much more so than Miami .... although our offense is certainly better.

But I would go with the complete team (Wake) over UM, which is, frankly, a one trick pony.
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Warrior808 said:
Remember the million times we heard "we didn't expect or prep for how they came out on defense, did things they never showed on film prior to our game" as an excuse for our poor offensive performances?

Other teams can scheme up a whole new style of game plan in a week but we cant even break a few tendencies. Sheesh

Bill B post game presser:
"They didn't mix it up. They did what they did the whole game. They ran what they ran the whole game which is honestly what they've been running the whole year."
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Has any of the press asked our DC about that quote?
 
RedSquare said:
Yes. ND will likely cover. Listen, games aren't played on the internet, but when you grind the tape and look at the data objectively .... ND should win this game by about 7 points.

If UM is -14.5 against Wake?? Then taking the points is the easiest money anyone would make that week. Again, anything can happen, but a rational analysis says that's the way to bet.
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LOL. When people describe their analysis as rational it rarely is.
 
RedSquare said:
I would take ND and lay the points.

The better bet, however, regardless of what happens on Saturday with the fighting pedophiles ... will be when (IF) we play Wake in the ACC Championship game. UM will be favored. Take Wake and the points, whatever they are. Wake is a complete team, much more so than Miami .... although our offense is certainly better.

But I would go with the complete team (Wake) over UM, which is, frankly, a one trick pony.
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Show us your ticket with notre dame on it. Anything else is irrelevant
 
Hurricane23 said:
So you think ND covers -5.5 over us, that's basically a TD.

Miami would be -14.5 right against Wake on a neutral field.
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No we wouldn’t lol.

Give me 5 min and I’ll tell you what we’d roughly be. Keep in mind this is week #4 in a row where the market has faded us.

Edit: based off current team ratings, Miami would be roughly -8 to -9.5 in a rematch with Wake. Could see it getting bet down closer to 7.5/7, depending on how the next few weeks shake out.
 
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RedSquare said:
Yes. ND will likely cover. Listen, games aren't played on the internet, but when you grind the tape and look at the data objectively .... ND should win this game by about 7 points.

If UM is -14.5 against Wake?? Then taking the points is the easiest money anyone would make that week. Again, anything can happen, but a rational analysis says that's the way to bet.
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Interested in your confidence wrt taking ND from a betting standpoint.

Lines are set by power ratings. Right now, most of the well-regarded ones (FPI, SP+, Sagarin etc) show a very negligible gap (around 1 pt or less in most) between the top 3 or 5 teams, including Miami and ND. So when you assign 3points for home field, you generally get a line between ND- 3 to 4, but that’s about it.

Neither team is perfect, ND has the better defense for sure but Miami has the better offense . ND is pretty beat up right now too with some important players expected to be out.

From a historical standpoint, Cristobal’s teams have a pretty good record ATS in what most would define as big games, even prior to last year. And when you factor out his year zero here (2022) , I believe it’s particularly strong.
And while I’d have to do some research, I believe ND’s record s/u against top 5 or 10 ranked teams is also *really* bad dating back more than 30 years, with their best wins in those situations coming against teams that were missing their starting QBs like Clemson in ‘20 and UGA in the playoffs.
 
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CaneMutiny06 said:
Interested in your confidence wrt taking ND from a betting standpoint.

Lines are set by power ratings. Right now, most of the well-regarded ones (FPI, SP+, Sagarin etc) show a very negligible gap (around 1 pt or less in most) between the top 3 or 5 teams, including Miami and ND. So when you assign 3points for home field, you generally get a line between ND- 3 to 4, but that’s about it.

Neither team is perfect, ND has the better defense for sure but Miami has the better offense . ND is pretty beat up right now too with some important players expected to be out.

From a historical standpoint, Cristobal’s teams have a pretty good record ATS in what most would define as big games, even prior to last year. And when you factor out his year zero here (2022) , I believe it’s particularly strong.
And while I’d have to do some research, I believe ND’s record against top 5 or 10 ranked teams is also *really* bad dating back more than 30 years, with their best wins in those situations coming against teams that were missing their starting QBs like Clemson in ‘20 and UGA in the playoffs.
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I personally would give more than 3 for home field in this instance. Very outdated way to do things imo - each opponent is different on every game week. Your record also matters; for example, here’s a quick way how we view things at work.

Miami playing FSU draws a different crowd than playing Duke. Playing at 8pm is different than noon. Stanford will be penalized harsher for traveling to Duke, rather than Oklahoma (distance). An 8-0 team hosting a top 10 team will draw a different crowd than if 8-0 drew a 2-7 team (non-rival).

Etc.

Off the top of my head, I would personally give ND about 4.5 to 5 pts home field here when considering all the circumstances. This is also backtested extensively. Not end all be all, but certainly more granular than saying “eh they get 3 pts”.
 
WeBallinBoyz said:
I personally would give more than 3 for home field. Very outdated way to do things imo - each opponent is different on every game week. Your record also matters; for example, here’s a quick way how we view things at work.

Miami playing FSU draws a different crowd than playing Duke. Playing at 8pm is different than noon. Stanford will be penalized harsher for traveling to Duke, rather than Oklahoma (distance). An 8-0 team hosting a top 10 team will draw a different crowd than if 8-0 drew a 2-7 team (non-rival).

Etc.

I would personally give ND about 4.5 to 5 pts home field here when considering all the circumstances. This is also backtested extensively. Not end all be all, but certainly more granular than saying “eh they get 3 pts”.
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Reasonable, and from what I heard earlier this season home field is starting to get more in the ballpark of 4 in recent years in college..

Even then, I think 5.5 is pushing the limits a bit here. I think anything more than ND-4 , my lean would probably be Miami, but I also don’t have a solid feel for this one.
 
CaneMutiny06 said:
Reasonable, and from what I heard earlier this season home field is starting to get more in the ballpark of 4 in recent years in college..

Even then, I think 5.5 is pushing the limits a bit here. I think anything more than ND-4 , my lean would probably be Miami, but I also don’t have a solid feel for this one.
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Miami is normally off-limits from me as a bettor. I remove all emotion (or try to). Just math to me.

+6 showed up at Circa and Pinnacle. I’m pretty close to taking Miami if Brewu is out.
 
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