AsylumGodfather
Sophomore
- Joined
- Oct 16, 2012
- Messages
- 1,002
EVERYONE needs to chill out. Chad Thomas will not leave. We have an EXTREMELY talented class! We lost two players who were no where near key pick ups for us. Why is everyone flipping out???? Al Golden is doing a lot to keep us moving forward from where we were with Randy Shannon. You all expect us to just jump to the best team in the country with their being no competition for us. That isnt going to happen. So take a deep breath and realize that we are getting better every year and AL GOLDEN is helping us get there.
NO WE ARE NOT GETTING BETTER, THE CANES ARE GETTING WORSE ON DEFENSE AND REGRESSING HERE IS THE PROOF
http://sebastianspub.wordpress.com/2...-coral-gables/
NO D IN CORAL GABLES
JT Thomson (Follow on Twitter)
Al Golden went on the Joe Rose Show today on WQAM in Miami, and after giving a completely implausible version of events of what transpired the last few days with Penn State, shifted to a discussion of the play on the field.
He immediately went into a full throated defense of his defense, citing progress and laundry listing statistics. There is a problem with the approach that Golden took, however. This improvement does not take into account the difference in quality of opponents from 1 year to the next. Golden listed out specific, cherry picked statistics where the defense marginally improved, but this ignores the fact that the 2012 Miami Hurricanes played 2 top teams out of conference (Notre Dame and Kansas State), while the 2013 Miami Hurricanes played one of the softest schedules in program history.
For a fair and complete analysis, it is important to compare like to like. In his interview, Golden also brought up the 2011 team, pointing out how good it was by once again cherry picking metrics. But what about a complete analysis of Golden’s defense and the one that preceded his arrival under head coach Randy Shannon, comparing games in the conference so you are comparing apples to apples? Oh, we have you covered.
The statistics are from games against conference opponents only in each year. So it removes the good from the defense against Savannah State, etc… but it also removes the beatdowns from Notre Dame and Kansas State last year.
Essentially, this is about as fair a look, removing statistical noise and talent discrepancies, that you can take at a defense’s performance. And the results?
Conference Rankings
Total yards per game allowed
Dead last by 50 yards this year.
Next to last in 2012.
8th in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Total yards per play allowed
13th this year.
11th (of 12) last year.
10th in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Number of plays
Dead last this year.
Dead last last year.
5th in 2011.
4th in 2010.
Scoring defense in conference play
12th this year.
9th last year.
4th in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Analysis: So the one year they slow down the game, the scoring defense looks good. But in reality, the Canes were still getting gashed at a ridiculous level. Since Al Golden arrived on campus, and right when he arrived on campus, the overall quality of the defense plummeted. Moving from one of the top in the ACC to the bottom.
Sacks in conference play
Tied for last this year.
11th last year.
8th in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Analysis: Golden said they improved on sacks this year. This is only because they ran up numbers against the dregs like Savannah State. Once in conference play, they were tied for worst in the ACC.
Tackles for loss in conference play
Last this year.
11th last year.
7th in 2011.
1st in 2010.
Analysis: Basically, Miami doesn’t make plays behind the line of scrimmage against vaunted ACC O-Lines and Offenses. In 2010, the year prior to Golden’s arrival, they were the best in the conference at this.
Opponent 3rd down conversion % in conference
Last this year.
10th last year.
8th in 2011.
2nd in 2010.
Opponent 3rd down conversions in conference
13th this year.
8th last year.
4th in 2011.
4th in 2010.
Opponent 4th down conversion % in conference
Last (83% ALLOWED!).
5th last year.
5th in 2011.
1st in 2010.
Opponent 4th down conversions in conference
Tied for last this year.
Tied for 4th last year.
T-6 in 2011.
1st in 2010
Analysis: The team doesn’t get off the field on 3rd down. They don’t get off the field on 4th down. Again, in 2011 when they slowed down the game, the number of conversions went down, but they still converted them at a ridiculous rate.
Opponent redzone touchdown conversion % in conference
4th this year.
8th last year.
1st in 2011.
2nd in 2010.
Opponent redzone touchdown conversions
9th this year.
12th last year.
1st in 2011.
2nd in 2010.
Analysis: The good thing about the defense is that when the opponent gets to the redzone, they actually do a good job of keeping the opponent from scoring touchdowns. The bad news is that they let them in there more times than anyone in the conference, so they get scored on one way or another.
Opponent plays of greater than 10 yards in conference
last this year.
last last year.
10th in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Opponent plays of greater than 20 yards in conference
11th this year.
9th last year.
1st in 2011.
5th in 2010.
Analysis: This is pretty remarkable. Not only is the defense not making plays behind the line of scrimmage, but other teams are converting big plays.
Turnovers forced conference play
tied for 6th this year.
tied for 2nd last year.
10th in 2011.
2nd in 2010.
Analysis: The Canes did a good job of forcing turnovers the last 2 years. Interestingly enough, even in this positive metric, it actually trended down this year.
Conclusions
The defensive “progress” and “upward trend” in performance Al Golden referenced in his Joe Rose Show interview are COMPLETELY attributable to the out of conference opponents being weaker. The defense has yet to improve in three years, and there is no statistical justification for continuing under the same defensive staff and/or scheme. We’ll close with this handy little chart showing the real lack of progress.
That, Canes Fans, is the defense that your head coach just said was improving and trending in the right direction.
So it is completely Golden's fault for having to deal with the sanctions and still get recruits while all of that was going on, and using Shannon's recruits, not all the people HE would want.
I'm sorry we aren't national champs already after all of the **** we have gone through. If you expect us to be top notch all ready. You're dumb
NO I EXPECT A GOOD SMART COACH TO BE ABLE TO SCHEME TO THE TALENT HE HAS ON THE ******* ROSTER BECAUSE THATS WHAT A GOOD COACH DOES. THE ******* DC AT FSU TRIED TO RUN THE 3-4 THIS YEAR AND REALIZED AFTER 2 ******* GAMES THAT IT WASNT GOINT TO WORK AND CHANGED HIS SCHEME TO FIT HIS ROSTER PLAYERS. GOLDEN AND ONOFRIO ARE TO STUBBORN TO DO THAT WHICH LEADS TO THE **** SHOW ON DEFENSE EVERY WEEK. I DIDNT EXPECT THE CANES TO WIN THE SHIP THIS YEAR BUT I DID EXPECT A MINIMUM OF 10 WINS WITH THE WEAK *** SCHEDULE THAT THEY HAD. IF YOURE TOO BLIND TO SEE THIS THEN YOURE THE ******* DUMBASS
