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There is only one person on that list that you can see that can even be considered "dual threat" which would be Wilson.
 
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Kyler Murray dominates this 538 evaluation of college quarterbacks based on CPOE or Completion Percentage Over Expected. It measures depth of target in relation to completion percentage. Russell Wilson had the top number on the list given the backfitted data since 2009.

Looks like a work in progress but I can tell it is legitimate and high caliber based on the names 2, 3 and 4 behind Wilson. They are Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Kellen Moore. A less confident and desperate analyst would have come up with some ridiculous means to exclude those guys, once his model spit out those names. I have seen that done countless times, whether it's sports or wagering or politics, etc. Since 538 was rugged enough to post the data minus adjustment, I'm sure this formula will be heard from again and will prove to dominate subjectivity, which is on the way out anyway. Or let's say relegated.

Will Grier has a surprisingly high number. However, he is overaged and 538 has already done a separate study on the sucker aspect of drafting overaged prospects particularly at quarterback. They obviously have not blended the two. The formula has a much lower -- although decent -- appraisal of Haskins. It basically rejects Daniel Jones and especially Drew Lock, who barely registers at all. Tyree Jackson is also about as low as it can get.

I'll look forward to further adaptations of this. Once something like this surfaces others copy and attempt to modify it.

fivethirtyeight.com

The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

We built a model to predict which college QBs will see success in the pros.
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
 
TOcane said:
Look at the list I posted earlier. There is not one single "dual threat" outside of Wilson on there in the last 30 years.
Click to expand...
Mostly because Tom Brady has won the most superbowls. Every statue QB on that list is either retired or close to retirement. In the case of Eli, he should have already retired. Lets make a list of the top QBs in the league. Most of them, including guys like Rogers and Brees have scrambling ability. How many young QBs just stand in the pocket today?
 
DTP said:
Mostly because Tom Brady has won the most superbowls. Every statue QB on that list is either retired or close to retirement. In the case of Eli, he should have already retired. Lets make a list of the top QBs in the league. Most of them, including guys like Rogers and Brees have scrambling ability. How many young QBs just stand in the pocket today?
Click to expand...
Scrambling ability does not mean they aren't a pocket passer and doesn't make them a "dual threat". The elite guys are "pocket passers" who can get out the pocket if necessary.
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
Kyler Murray dominates this 538 evaluation of college quarterbacks based on CPOE or Completion Percentage Over Expected. It measures depth of target in relation to completion percentage. Russell Wilson had the top number on the list given the backfitted data since 2009.

Looks like a work in progress but I can tell it is legitimate and high caliber based on the names 2, 3 and 4 behind Wilson. They are Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Kellen Moore. A less confident and desperate analyst would have come up with some ridiculous means to exclude those guys, once his model spit out those names. I have seen that done countless times, whether it's sports or wagering or politics, etc. Since 538 was rugged enough to post the data minus adjustment, I'm sure this formula will be heard from again and will prove to dominate subjectivity, which is on the way out anyway. Or let's say relegated.

Will Grier has a surprisingly high number. However, he is overaged and 538 has already done a separate study on the sucker aspect of drafting overaged prospects particularly at quarterback. They obviously have not blended the two. The formula has a much lower -- although decent -- appraisal of Haskins. It basically rejects Daniel Jones and especially Drew Lock, who barely registers at all. Tyree Jackson is also about as low as it can get.

I'll look forward to further adaptations of this. Once something like this surfaces others copy and attempt to modify it.

fivethirtyeight.com

The NFL Is Drafting Quarterbacks All Wrong

We built a model to predict which college QBs will see success in the pros.
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com
Click to expand...

He is QB1.
 
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