Kyler Murray dominates this 538 evaluation of college quarterbacks based on CPOE or Completion Percentage Over Expected. It measures depth of target in relation to completion percentage. Russell Wilson had the top number on the list given the backfitted data since 2009.
Looks like a work in progress but I can tell it is legitimate and high caliber based on the names 2, 3 and 4 behind Wilson. They are Johnny Manziel, Jameis Winston and Kellen Moore. A less confident and desperate analyst would have come up with some ridiculous means to exclude those guys, once his model spit out those names. I have seen that done countless times, whether it's sports or wagering or politics, etc. Since 538 was rugged enough to post the data minus adjustment, I'm sure this formula will be heard from again and will prove to dominate subjectivity, which is on the way out anyway. Or let's say relegated.
Will Grier has a surprisingly high number. However, he is overaged and 538 has already done a separate study on the sucker aspect of drafting overaged prospects particularly at quarterback. They obviously have not blended the two. The formula has a much lower -- although decent -- appraisal of Haskins. It basically rejects Daniel Jones and especially Drew Lock, who barely registers at all. Tyree Jackson is also about as low as it can get.
I'll look forward to further adaptations of this. Once something like this surfaces others copy and attempt to modify it.
We built a model to predict which college QBs will see success in the pros.
fivethirtyeight.com