New NHC Cone, Tropical Depression 16 forms (NATE)

[WestEndZone]

Wait is this supposed to be a metaphor? Like as in a hurricane (the Miami Hurricanes) will be in Tallahassee at game time?

Asking for a friend.

Please say yes.

 

[L A M P]

Zero chance of the game being played in Tally on Sat if there's a hurricane hitting Monday.

Never
Assume
Teams
Evacuationplans

 

[jakeman1]

I think this is the Euro model. Looks like it's coming in a lot further west, about 450 miles west of Tallahassee.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...0_mslp&runtime=2017100412&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0

 

[tcgrad1014]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

 

[tcgrad1014]

I think this is the Euro model. Looks like it's coming in a lot further west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...0_mslp&runtime=2017100412&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0

This is GFS, not Euro.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

I think this is the Euro model. Looks like it's coming in a lot further west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...0_mslp&runtime=2017100412&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0

No, that's the GFS model which we are largely ignoring. NHC almost chiefly looking at the Euro model. I shared the latest Euro run on page 4, feel free to take a look.

 

[itsacanething]

I think this is the Euro model. Looks like it's coming in a lot further west.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...0_mslp&runtime=2017100412&fh=72&xpos=0&ypos=0

that is very encouraging. that would virtually insure the game is played at the stated time.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

 

[jakeman1]

Crap. Liked the other one better. Euro does seem to be more accurate, but it still looks like it will be far enough away in the Gulf to get the game in Saturday.

 

[tcgrad1014]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

No, there is still plenty of time for things to change, the ensemble euro members show landfall anywhere from miami to texas at this point. Wait and see. We'll know more tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

 

[eliteproxy]

Baez tweeted this just now.. I am guessing the game is on!

 

[88]

The euro, while the most accurate, still bounced around like a pin ball during Irma

 

[L A M P]

Euro. It's the only thing to pay any attention to.

Thanks to this guy.

 

[tcgrad1014]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

No, there is still plenty of time for things to change, the ensemble euro members show landfall anywhere from miami to texas at this point. Wait and see. We'll know more tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

The NHC cone of death is squarely on the pan handle. NHC seems to be completely dismissing the GFS (as you alluded to). The 5 day NHC cone has gotten pretty **** accurate over the past few seasons.

 

[tcgrad1014]

Baez tweeted this just now.. I am guessing the game is on!


View attachment 51057

...until it's not.

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

No, there is still plenty of time for things to change, the ensemble euro members show landfall anywhere from miami to texas at this point. Wait and see. We'll know more tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

The NHC cone of death is squarely on the pan handle. NHC seems to be completely dismissing the GFS (as you alluded to). The 5 day NHC cone has gotten pretty **** accurate over the past few seasons.

the NHC cone has yet to fail this season, I remind people to trust it and remember that impacts are felt beyond the cone (Irma says hi)

 

[Memnon]

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

 

[fincane]

GFS (west) and Euro (right up Osceola's ***) are 250 miles apart. That's a huge spread only a few days out. Euro is usually king, but you never know.

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

No, there is still plenty of time for things to change, the ensemble euro members show landfall anywhere from miami to texas at this point. Wait and see. We'll know more tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

The NHC cone of death is squarely on the pan handle. NHC seems to be completely dismissing the GFS (as you alluded to). The 5 day NHC cone has gotten pretty **** accurate over the past few seasons.

The cone of death had Irma with a hit on the eastern side of Florida 5 days out. When it made landfall the only reason Miami got hit at all is because of how big Irma was. Nate is not expected to have that type of reach.