New NHC Cone, Tropical Depression 16 forms (NATE)

[Dan Sileo JR]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

I'm a RSMAS double graduate working at the national weather service. Everything you said is factual and has been discussed throughout the thread

 

[Notsince1985]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

I'm a RSMAS double graduate working at the national weather service. Everything you said is factual and has been discussed throughout the thread

That is way too many letters

 

[dfagundo]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

I'm a RSMAS double graduate working at the national weather service. Everything you said is factual and has been discussed throughout the thread

Jr, what is your prediction for the potential movement of game time

 

[Classic]

Most models have this thing ******* off to the west and missing FL entirely (yes, we'd have rain and tropical storm level winds, but...). I suspect we'll see this thing slow down and the projections to shift westward over the next 48 hours.

I think we'll be OK, but only time will tell.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

 

[Dan Sileo JR]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

I'm a RSMAS double graduate working at the national weather service. Everything you said is factual and has been discussed throughout the thread

Jr, what is your prediction for the potential movement of game time

Too early to tell, but Blake James have already told the media that there is an active conversation between FSU, the U, and the ACC. I think if they have to make a change we'll know in the next 24 hours.

 

[DTP]

Who knew Dan Jr. was such a weather wiz?

 

[tcgrad1014]

Normally I'd agree but GFS struggles in early stage development (throwing the whole run off after), really need to pay attention to the Euro here.

If we are taking the Euro as gospel, the game will be cancelled.

No, there is still plenty of time for things to change, the ensemble euro members show landfall anywhere from miami to texas at this point. Wait and see. We'll know more tomorrow afternoon at the earliest.

The NHC cone of death is squarely on the pan handle. NHC seems to be completely dismissing the GFS (as you alluded to). The 5 day NHC cone has gotten pretty **** accurate over the past few seasons.

The cone of death had Irma with a hit on the eastern side of Florida 5 days out. When it made landfall the only reason Miami got hit at all is because of how big Irma was. Nate is not expected to have that type of reach.

The cone predicts the potential areas of impact, and it is very accurate and getting more accurate every season. The NHC cone nailed Irma. Right now the cone of death is almost completely in the pan handle. It would be very surprising to me if they were wrong, and Nate hit Louisiana.

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

I'm a RSMAS double graduate working at the national weather service. Everything you said is factual and has been discussed throughout the thread

Only the first question was meant for you, the rest was just a general statement for those surfing the thread. Hope you didn't take offense.

 

[Dilber]

I kinda hope for Friday. It gives FSU a short week, us a regular week, and gives us an extra day for next week.

 

[tcgrad1014]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

 

[tcgrad1014]

A couple things, Dan you're very well versed weather wise are you a Met or did you stay in an holiday inn express last night? There are a lot of variables still in play with TD 16. The NHC is leaning Euro but hasn't thrown out the GFS completely (Hence the spread of the cone). One model run is really useless, multiple model runs show trends. The 12Z Euro run showed a slower system with a slightly west landfall than the 0Z run. This system will most likely affect the game in some way but it's to early to tell exactly how. You can bet the powers that be are discussing multiple contingency plans as we speak.

The NHC has almost completely disregarded the GFS, which is way west. The spread of the cone is standard for 5 days out (I think).

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

Wrong.

 

[ILCane2011]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

Uh, wrong

 

[Classic]

Didn't they play two games last year in North Carolina with a low category Hurricane Matthew looming nearby? Notre Dame vs. NCState and whoever UNC played.

 

[tcgrad1014]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

Wrong.

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

Uh, wrong

Not sure how I'm wrong, but I hope I am.

 

[BiltmoreCANE]

One extra thing to add is that (RI) Rapid Intensification is not off of the table. If the system doesn't interact with land it will be sitting over the warmest waters in the basin with little to no shear or dry air. In the short term W Carib/S Gulf this thing could blow up rather quickly (important note: not an Irma) and become stronger than currently forecast by the NHC.

 

[OriginalCanesCanesCanes]

Unless this thing does something totally unexpected, which none of the experts are predicting, this game gets played. Like I said before, worst-case scenario, Friday. Most likely if it changes it’ll be noon on Saturday. Until there’s further information, and that that’s going take time, there really is nothing else to say

Ridiculous the people are even mentioning this game being canceled. There is an infinitesimally small chance of that happening

Right now, per NHC, Nate is projected to be a Cat 1 hitting the pan handle on Sunday morning. That's what is expected at this time. With time needed for boarding up and getting supplies in prep for a direct hit to Tally, I think at this point it would take something unexpected for the game to be played.

Wait I take it back, you’re right - the game will be canceled. People can only prepare and board their homes for a very minor cat one storm (at max, per current predictions) during the three hours that the game will be played.

This currently minor tropical storm will change the laws of space and time, compressing the available preparation time to exactly the three hours when the game is being played.

 

[TheU3090]

Didn't they play two games last year in North Carolina with a low category Hurricane Matthew looming nearby? Notre Dame vs. NCState and whoever UNC played.

They did and all coaches, even the winners called it the most ridiculous thing they had ever scene

 

[TI_Inspire]

Just move it here. Sucks for FSU, but that's how things work out sometimes.