Holy F*CKING sh*t are people still trying to argue that stupidity about 5 star success vs 3 star? At this point in the game its MEANINGLESS. Do you realize that many sites will basically hand a kid extra stars just based on who offers him? Correlation does not equal Causation here. If Alabama offers a 3 star, and all the sites make him a 4 star, and he goes on to have success, does that prove the hypothesis? NO, because most sites will MAKE him a 4 star simply because Alabama offered. The idea is that he may have a higher likelihood of succeeding because he was evaluated as worthy by one of the best staffs in the nation, and will have access to the best facilities and coaching in the game.
BUT.... what if Alabama already had all the commits they needed at the position? And DIDNT offer the same 3 star. Does that then mean he ISNT the same player with the same potential?
The fundemental problem with the "star *****" game is that stars are subjective, and often inflated for kids who get offers to big programs, or at least CLAIM them, and those who do the camp circuit. THEN you have the problem of it being WAY too early to obsess about stars. There are MANY kids who are going to fill out this summer, and explode next year. Kids NO ONE has heard of will be "cant miss" 4 stars by next January. This is ESPECIALLY true for OL and DL, positions where its VERY hard to project and evaluate, and a kid may not contribute until the get much older.
Bottom line, the time to really get concerned, is IF a kid has been to camps, has taken trips, has been evaluated, and STILL has offers from a few nobody schools late in their Senior year, THEN you can start to sweat. But remember Courtel Jenkins? Big ball of baby fat we recruited, when he was a nobody, and everyone said "who?" and whined about his offers. Fast forward one year later, kid got in shape, DOMINATED his senior year, DOMINATED in his all star game, was state champ, and suddenly Penn State, and Ohio State are burning up the phone lines to the kid. Had we not gotten on him early, we would have NEVER gotten him. Same with Njoku. We found him first, then suddenly Penn State is calling, and *** is paying the kid personal visits to his school. Even Bama was calling trying to get him down for a visit.
You snooze you lose. Does that mean every one of these kids will be a stud? no. Does every diamond in the rough become a shining star? Nope. Will all these kids blow up their senior years? Nope. But not all these kids are going to be signing here next Febrary either, regardless of the early commit. At WORSE they are placeholders, with plenty of time for us to nudge them elsewhere. At BEST we are getting in early on some studs that are going to be hot commodities in 9 months.