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Miami opens at -18.5 vs USF

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mossmadness said:
This is exactly it.

A lot of people wondered why Miami was 27 in SP+ after this past weekend.
And some of that is last year’s analytics on defense still taking up a disproportionate amount of the inputs.

But Connelly also explained it’s because Bethune had some offensive yard success in non-garbage time.

And while Miami scored every time in non-garbage time, the drives were a little more methodical than the average team would have been. The average team would have had more success absolutely gashing Bethune for more chunk plays and so would have scored in fewer plays. So SP+ from an analytics standpoint penalized Miami for needing to death march a bad FCS team, as that probably isn’t a recipe for success against other teams.

Only concern Saturday is the death march keeps happening, without a TD each time.
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Bethune as a team had 100 yards going into the 3rd quarter. How exactly is that non garbage time success?
 
cway313 said:
Bookmarked for future use.
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"
did-we-just-become-friends-brennan-huff.gif
" - @JG14
 
dycane said:
The agents I know speak VERY highly of the G Tech coach and think he’s going to be in the mix for the big jobs next cycle.
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Yeah I think so also. I just think UF is going to go with Fisch because of Spurrier or Lane to save Lagway from leaving and to get the immediate portal help.
 
GrozDozer said:
Bethune as a team had 100 yards going into the 3rd quarter. How exactly is that non garbage time success?
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Removing the kneel down.
Of their first five drives, one went for 11 plays and the other 10 plays.

That’s what SP+ doesn’t like. That defensively that’s about what an average defense would do against Bethune.

You have to remember, these analytic models aren’t judging your performance in a vacuum. It’s not impressive holding a team to 3 points in non-garbage time if the average tean would hold them to no points. That’s what you’re being judged on.
 
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BeastMode said:
I’ve seen some tape and ND had plenty of chances and it was their own mistakes they lead to Miami making plays. ND was one missed assignment away from a couple of massive chunk plays on offense.

Brown is a much better runner than their QB but yes Miami should be able to handle them over 4 quarters but I expect it to be closer than the spread.
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He was terrible last year running against us.
 
SinCityCane said:
Line is already up on FanDuel. Probably a little higher than I expected considering they're coming 2 wins vs ranked opponents, but I still think we cover.

This line tells me the sharps think this team is legit.
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A little steep for my blood....
 
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mossmadness said:
So SP+ from an analytics standpoint penalized Miami for needing to death march a bad FCS team, as that probably isn’t a recipe for success against other teams.
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I actually think the death march is more sustainable against teams with better talent. I'd rather overdo it on the death march than overdo it on kill-shots (that create three-and-outs). Through two games, we seem to be doing it right down the middle: 67 passing attempts, 68 rushing attempts.

We took our shots against Bethune, but we were also nearly 10 YPP running routine plays with the starters. I think the deep catches will come in greater numbers as Beck gets in synch with receivers beyond Daniels and Toney.
 
Fart Keyhole said:
I actually think the death march is more sustainable against teams with better talent. I'd rather overdo it on the death march than overdo it on kill-shots (that create three-and-outs). Through two games, we seem to be doing it right down the middle: 67 passing attempts, 68 rushing attempts.

We took our shots against Bethune, but we were also nearly 10 YPP running routine plays with the starters. I think the deep catches will come in greater numbers as Beck gets in synch with receivers beyond Daniels and Toney.
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Explosive rate correlates year to year more than success rate.

Success rate matters because you have to be on the field for your offense to have an explosive.

We saw that in the UF-USF game. UF had more down to down success. USF had more explosives. That was the difference in the game.
 
mossmadness said:
Explosive rate correlates year to year more than success rate.

Success rate matters because you have to be on the field for your offense to have an explosive.

We saw that in the UF-USF game. UF had more down to down success. USF had more explosives. That was the difference in the game.
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I think you want both. But as you say, baseline success is a prerequisite for explosive play. Which is why I'm happy with our offense that is balanced, physically imposing, and has the ability to layer passes. I think the deep shots will improve as the year goes on.

This year's UF-USF game was fairly odd. It required about five different ****-ups from UF to go USF's way, even neglecting the explosive plays on their side. UF's defense held a G5 team to 16 points and the team managed to lose. Winning routine downs should have been sufficient for UF. The gator offense lost three touchdowns on stupid penalties and Lagway ****ed away at least one other one (likely more) with dog**** accuracy on short patterns.
 
mossmadness said:
This is exactly it.

A lot of people wondered why Miami was 27 in SP+ after this past weekend.
And some of that is last year’s analytics on defense still taking up a disproportionate amount of the inputs.

But Connelly also explained it’s because Bethune had some offensive yard success in non-garbage time.

And while Miami scored every time in non-garbage time, the drives were a little more methodical than the average team would have been. The average team would have had more success absolutely gashing Bethune for more chunk plays and so would have scored in fewer plays. So SP+ from an analytics standpoint penalized Miami for needing to death march a bad FCS team, as that probably isn’t a recipe for success against other teams.

Only concern Saturday is the death march keeps happening, without a TD each time.
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SP+ is simply a mathematical formula. Miami comes in a 27 because that's how math works. The problem with simply using math is that math doesn't watch the game, especially these types of games. Watching the game Miami was clearly playing in a manner that allowed soft coverage until backed up into their own end, as a result BC was able to move the ball a bit and Miami wasn't dialing up explosive plays, instead choosign to be methodical. Much of the gameplay was a result of Mario not wanting to bury a coach he is friendly with but also making sure there was no doubt.

The SP+ will work itself out once the sample size increases
 
mossmadness said:
Explosive rate correlates year to year more than success rate.

Success rate matters because you have to be on the field for your offense to have an explosive.

We saw that in the UF-USF game. UF had more down to down success. USF had more explosives. That was the difference in the game.
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This assumes that the team that sleepwalks against Bethune Cookman or East Texas A&M is the same team that shows up against a ranked opponent.
 
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TrumpyCane said:
TrumpyCane watched most of the USF/UF game

All trolling aside UF outplayed them that game, UF had a questionable PI go against them that took away a TD, if not for a bunch of stupid UF mistakes UF wins that game by 14+

USF isn't good
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I'd never say this out loud, but that OPI wasn't questionable, it was ******* egregious. A completely awful, 10000% incorrect call that took 4 points off the board.

And I loved it.
 
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