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Miami 4.5 dog vs GT

I guess Vegas doesn't care much that Perry is the starter. Line hasn't moved much

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Cane Dynasty said:
There is no doubt he's lectured many a hapless ticket buyer unfortunate enough to have won the Assy Booger lottery. Blessed with the opportunity to sit in his section at a game. We can only buy a ticket and hope.

He does pontificate deeply about his strategies and measurables, and 3rd down screens. Don't forget about night games on the road vs P5 opponents at any venue within 500 miles of an ocean during a low tide cycle, with a mascot that is a canine or feline.

Also depending on where the team was ranked pre-season and taking into account if the favored QB1 is right handed or left handed......

He's more entertainment than the product on the field right now.
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I would rather read a guy who worked in the industry over the cavemen who toss out rookie phrases like "trap game" and "Vegas is trying to get equal money on both sides".
 
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Yeah, line has now dropped to just +1.5 at the most reputable sites.

We shall win outright tonight, gents. Miami on the moneyline it is.
 
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Jedi Master Cane said:
This is the type of game we'll win.
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Agreed. Manny has had our defense feast on the triple option in prior years. We have the speed, the key is discipline on defense. Don't over-pursue, force the ball carrier to the outside. They can't consistently stretch the field horizontally against our defensive speed and most of the time the QB pitches it to the outside. I'm not worried about our defense, it's our offense that has me concerned. I don't want to see any QB carousel the first time N'Kosi throws an INT. Let him get in a rhythm. They don't have the horses to cover us if the OLine gives us a few seconds to throw.
 
Jaromir Jagr said:
I would rather read a guy who worked in the industry over the cavemen who toss out rookie phrases like "trap game" and "Vegas is trying to get equal money on both sides".
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My stuff works...more often than not. There is always backlash from loud conventional wisdom types. It is more amusing than anything else.

I've been doing this for 34 years yet I'm supposed to care about clowns named Cane Dynasty and The Franchise? How hard am I allowed to laugh? I used to watch Billy Walters in action all the time in Las Vegas, and how he desperately manipulated things ahead of time to cheat in his favor, instead of playing the games outright. I have detailed everything along those lines on lengthy posts at Golfwrx.com and elsewhere. Reputation doesn't always equal reality. Walters was nabbed on the insider trading charge only because those investigators were exponentially sharper than the ones who always tried and failed to nail him on the gambling related charges. He was always guilty of those charges also but the idiots had no idea what to look for, and there is pressure on people within the Las Vegas sports betting scene to shut up about what they know about Walters and others who cheat the system. Countless people know what happened but they always kept quiet. Some were paid off and some were scared.

Anyway, Miami doesn't have to win or cover tonight but the line moved logically. That's what my angle accounts for. The early high rated teams become underrated at some point, and that's when you jump in and take advantage. More often than not.

BTW, I also post under this name on Predictit, the political wagering site. There are ranting SAMs there as well, in the comments. Some markets have dozens of comments and some have thousands. I was breaking down the conservative/liberal split in each state and how it factored in the outcome, given a midterm electorate. Bottom line I didn't lose a wager. I wagered primarily on Republicans, in states where there are simply too many conservatives to overcome, like Texas with 44% self-identified conservatives. The polling and therefore the odds often become overly friendly to Democratic chances. It is much greater value to wager on a political race at let's say 59 cents to win 41 cents than on a similar money line in sports.

My largest wager was on Republicans to hold the senate. That was a joke at 63 cents.

I did win a nice wager on Donna Shalala in my district, FL-27. That was somewhat like the Canes becoming undervalued. Shalala was trading at 90 cents at one point but it dropped all the way down to even. I mentioned in comments there that it was one thing to believe the race would be closer than expected, quite another to think it would go over the top. But thanks to SAMs on Predictit they couldn't believe Salazar could lose based on the physical appearance of the two. Now that's a great variable to spotlight. High caliber of analysis.
 
Awsi Dooger said:
My stuff works...more often than not. There is always backlash from loud conventional wisdom types. It is more amusing than anything else.

I've been doing this for 34 years yet I'm supposed to care about clowns named Cane Dynasty and The Franchise? How hard am I allowed to laugh? I used to watch Billy Walters in action all the time in Las Vegas, and how he desperately manipulated things ahead of time to cheat in his favor, instead of playing the games outright. I have detailed everything along those lines on lengthy posts at Golfwrx.com and elsewhere. Reputation doesn't always equal reality. Walters was nabbed on the insider trading charge only because those investigators were exponentially sharper than the ones who always tried and failed to nail him on the gambling related charges. He was always guilty of those charges also but the idiots had no idea what to look for, and there is pressure on people within the Las Vegas sports betting scene to shut up about what they know about Walters and others who cheat the system. Countless people know what happened but they always kept quiet. Some were paid off and some were scared.

Anyway, Miami doesn't have to win or cover tonight but the line moved logically. That's what my angle accounts for. The early high rated teams become underrated at some point, and that's when you jump in and take advantage. More often than not.

BTW, I also post under this name on Predictit, the political wagering site. There are ranting SAMs there as well, in the comments. Some markets have dozens of comments and some have thousands. I was breaking down the conservative/liberal split in each state and how it factored in the outcome, given a midterm electorate. Bottom line I didn't lose a wager. I wagered primarily on Republicans, in states where there are simply too many conservatives to overcome, like Texas with 44% self-identified conservatives. The polling and therefore the odds often become overly friendly to Democratic chances. It is much greater value to wager on a political race at let's say 59 cents to win 41 cents than on a similar money line in sports.

My largest wager was on Republicans to hold the senate. That was a joke at 63 cents.

I did win a nice wager on Donna Shalala in my district, FL-27. That was somewhat like the Canes becoming undervalued. Shalala was trading at 90 cents at one point but it dropped all the way down to even. I mentioned in comments there that it was one thing to believe the race would be closer than expected, quite another to think it would go over the top. But thanks to SAMs on Predictit they couldn't believe Salazar could lose based on the physical appearance of the two. Now that's a great variable to spotlight. High caliber of analysis.
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Great call Assy. I see why you don't porst your pircks.
 
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Awsi Dooger said:
I enjoy Simplistic Angry Males bathed in fear. SAMs are nothing except fear. Congratulations on being scared of me. Apparently yourself and other fragile conventional wisdom types like Cane Dynasty had undeserved reign on other Canes boards when I was not around. Once I showed up I can deflect your nonsense with a laugh. Naturally you don't like that. From the first time I saw your posts on this board it was obvious what you were, a guy who relied on outliers. That is the most laughable poster and sports fan of all. As soon as a topic shows up he desperately resorts to an outlier, as if he won the argument.

No, he just verified that he has absolutely no clue what he is doing. Who cares about the exception, as opposed to the rule? You have to be a complete moron to put any stock in the minority sample. Yet that is what you offer...time and again. It was actually worse a few years ago before some of us started to laugh at it, and you pulled back from that tendency, obviously stunned that your one-example theme wasn't being lavished with praise.

I have given out public picks for more than 30 years. I was in the Castaways handicapping contest picking every game against the number. I was a guest handicapper on the Stardust line radio show on KDWN in Las Vegas for years and years multiple times per season college and pro in front of a live audience of a couple hundred people and callers from every western state. I was in the Gaming Today contest picking every game against the spread, coming in 4th among 60ish. People in Las Vegas would be in hysterics at any assertion that I pick after the fact. My tendency 30 years ago was the same as today...I give out logical and heavily researched systems and angles than can be applied to future games instead of merely saying I like the Jets this week.

I don't expect SAMs to be able to keep track of angles like betting against any home underdog that won the prior week, also as home underdog. That fit the Dolphins against the Lions and I mentioned that on a Dolphins site.

I do not respect the level of argument and analysis on this site. It is nothing but SAM caliber. Poptimus can verify that I used to give out many picks on the free board on Canesport a decade or so ago. That board offered a higher level of poster than frequents this site. Posters like yourself understand the SAM caliber here so you start threads that will be lapped up by fellow SAMs, like announcing that it is time for Richt to be fired and then you offer all type of twisted words and semi-profanity to play into the needs of those SAMs. It is juvenile and pathetic but that is your role in life and on forums like this. Be true to yourself.

The pick I gave out today was nothing more than a theme I have used for decades, and mentioned here and elsewhere. It shouldn't even be necessary to mention it. I love preseason ratings because everything tends to drift back to the beginning. Dunce fans rant against those preseason ratings when those teams lose early in the season. I use the ratings later in the year, once overboard adjustments have been made in the line, and then the early rating gap tends to kick in and dictate the outcome. It is especially useful in college football bowl games and the NCAA basketball tournament, when underdogs who were higher rated in preseason own phenomenal success. It is essentially the disguised superior team, winning as it should.

I am not going to babysit this board and point out every time one of my systems applies to a game. I mention the big picture angles all the time. like the supremacy of pass defense and the benefit of high volume rushing attempts.
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Fkn hilarious.:zczkqmritjdsoaq.jpg:

Anytime it takes someone an entire essay to make a pick you can guarantee they are full of schit.
 
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