Looking back at Auburn 2012 vs 2013

[theribdoctor]

I'm a big buyer on Lashlee, always have been, he was in my top 2 OC's thread before we even fired Enox.

I'm buying big on this season, I 100% believe we're turning it around this year, winning 10 games & the coastal.

The thing that has me the most convinced about Lash is he's taking the uptempo rushing offense from Malzahn & combining it with the Air Raid passing concepts from Sonny Dykes, so basically we'll have the Arkansas/Auburn run game with the SMU Air Raid pass game, to me that's exactly the offensive style that fits our personnel, it's basically the same thing that Lincoln Riley & Josh Heupel run at Oklahoma & UCF.

The emphasis is tempo in both the run game & passing game, stretch the Defense out with wide splits & force LB's/S's to show their hand pre snap, because just based on alignments alone if Defenses try to disguise coverages they'll get caught looking in the backfield & will have a WR streaking past them running down the hashes for 6.

I still hope we use that final scholly on a Grad LT, that's the only thing that still has me somewhat concerned, I think OL play will be significantly improved due to this offense not forcing our OL to hold blocks for 5/7 step drops, or trying to be a power run team & also because Garin Justice is a **** good coach that comes from the Trickett West Va run scheme which was one of the best in the game, but I'm just not sold on Zion being a legit LT in the long term for us, there were just so many plays where he got beat as soon as the ball was snapped it was pretty clear to me he had no business being out there & should've redshirted.

If Coach Justice can get Zion right then he deserves a million dollar raise & should be the permanent OL coach for this team for the next decade.

But, the added Zone read option element to this Uptempo offense with an electric dynamic talent like King is what has me most excited. Lashlee is a play caller that understands how to confuse defenses & scheme up big chunk yard plays & he did that with a moderately mobile QB in Shane Buechele, imagine what he'll do with a QB that has a big Deep ball arm & legit 4.4 speed... It has the potential to be what you saw from Lamar at Louisville & what you saw from Jalen Hurts at Oklahoma, the run lanes will be opened up in the middle of the field just off the hesitation by Defenders unsure of whose got the ball, which will draw those Safeties down & give our WR's one on ones on the outside.

Idc if I'm buying too high in Pre-Spring lol, nothing anybody can tell me will convince me we're not winning this year.

This, This has me excited.

 

[Gatorhater]

Did you read my post?

Yes, very closely. Thought you were saying if we hire Gene we could get Gus later to go with they guy we just hired. See we have Manny now so I did not think you could mean we are going to get to NC game. Or, short version, get sense of humor.

 

[bshaw28]

Malzahn hasn't been much better. He hit lightning in a bottle his 1st season and has become an 8 win coach most seasons. He scapegoated Lashlee out to keep his job.

Dude had a better version of Marshall in 14 and a 1600 yard back but did worse. With no Marshall and no Payne. These 2 genius managed to go 7-6 their 3rd year.

As i stated. Auburn does good when they're suppose to suck and suck when they're suppose to be good. Every single coach that has been there. Is on the chopping block the moment he is hired. I didn't say Chizik would've won no questions asked. I said may have won, but Auburn coaches don't last. That also spits on your argument for Lashlee.

This is largely because Auburn's schedule is brutal every year.

Auburn went 9-4 in 2019 having to play these teams

Beat #5 Oregon by 6
Beat #8 Alabama by 3
Lost to #1 LSU by 3
Lost to #4 GA by 7
Lost to #6 UF by 11
Lost to #10 Minn by 7

2019 - 9 wins while playing 6 games vs Top 10 opponents.
2017 - 10 wins while playing 5 games vs Top 6 opponents.

You're not going to find many teams who can get that many wins vs. that hard of a schedule.

 

[OBLIVION]

The bust/transfer rate for QBs at the higher levels of college football are astronomical. It's not that easy to do. Read this article not long ago:


The Athletic studied the careers of the top 50 high school quarterbacks who signed with FBS programs in the recruiting classes of 2014 through 2017 because those signees have all been in college for at least three years. So far, 57 percent of those QBs have transferred from the school they initially signed with. And that percentage will likely increase during this offseason.

For blue-chip quarterbacks like Alabama commit Bryce Young and Clemson commit DJ Uiagalelei, the ideal they’re hoping for is to earn a chance to start at some point in their first two years on campus and never have to put their names in the NCAA transfer portal. But that dream only came true for about 20 percent of the QBs in the classes of 2014-2017.

Based on these recent classes, if a top-50 QB signee doesn’t start one game in his first two years on campus, there’s an almost 75 percent chance he’ll end up leaving the program. And even if he does make a start in the first two years, there’s a nearly 45 percent chance he’ll still end up transferring. This is where college football is now.

My man. I appreciate the info and the fact that you looked stuff up, but Malzahn problem is simple. He waste too much money recruiting 5 star RB and doesn't recruit top end QB.

His success at Auburn hinges around 3 CC QB. The only time he has won 10 or more games. Is with this recipe. It's not like he has been recruiting a Bo Nix every year and they just flop. He is recruiting low 4 star QB.

If Auburn who pays top dollar for recruits. Was recruiting a big time QB every year. Then the chances of one of them being the next man in line. Would be great and yes. The others would dip like you stated.

 

[CANE1775]

Malzahn does much better when he has a QB that can run his system. In 2014, they had Jeremy Johnson and Sean White, so how is that better? Johnson was a huge bust and White can't run. The whole point of my OP was to show what a difference a year makes with a better offensive system and QB who can execute it. But go ahead and keep bringing up everything else you can.

Just to clarify, when he said much better version of Marshall I think he meant that it was Marshall's second year. He was the starting QB in 2013 and 2014. Putting my hatred of Malzahn aside, I will say that the lack of success in 2014 was more on the defense than the offense.

Back to the original point, though, I hope Lashlee can turn it around quickly. Part of me is skeptical, and then part of me as a Canes fan is hopeful. He didn't turn it around in year one at SMU, but hopefully this King kid makes a difference. And anther thing I always fall back on which made our 2019 season so frustrating; we're in the freaking Coastal. I mean **** if there's ever a division that could allow you to make a quick turnaround it should be the Coastal. We shall see.

 

[bshaw28]

Well how many years does he need to find a QB to fit his system? It isn't a better offensive system if the only reason it is good is because of 2 CC QB. The same system and same QB netted him a 8-5 record the following year. 3 years in this guru can't have a replacement?

In 2014 Auburn played 7 Top 25 teams. That's insane. I don't know if Miami has ever played more than 5 Top 25 teams in a season.

You're not accounting for how hard Auburn's schedule is.

 

[OBLIVION]

Just to clarify, when he said much better version of Marshall I think he meant that it was Marshall's second year. He was the starting QB in 2013 and 2014. Putting my hatred of Malzahn aside, I will say that the lack of success in 2014 was more on the defense than the offense.

Back to the original point, though, I hope Lashlee can turn it around quickly. Part of me is skeptical, and then part of me as a Canes fan is hopeful. He didn't turn it around in year one at SMU, but hopefully this King kid makes a difference. And anther thing I always fall back on which made our 2019 season so frustrating; we're in the freaking Coastal. I mean **** if there's ever a division that could allow you to make a quick turnaround it should be the Coastal. We shall see.

Both years the defense sucked for Auburn. They were catastrophic. In what you would normally think of when it comes to this program.

I'm like you on your 2nd portion of your post. I don't hate the Lashlee hire. hope we do have success. I just don't think you can take this instance at Auburn and make much of it.

There are more seasons when things look bad at 1st. Than seasons where the dice somehow roll your way like they did in 2013 for this program. The trajectory went down hill fast after 2013. It led to Lashlee being gone.

Are we going to have a great season because of King and slam our heads into the dash because we don't have this type of QB for a few years?

 

[aardvark]

In 2012, Auburn finished 3-9 and 0-8 in the SEC. By seasons end, Gene Chizik and offense coordinator Scot Loeffler (pro-style) were let go. In 2013, Auburn had one of the greatest turnarounds in college football history with Gus Malzahn as the head coach and Rhett Lashlee as offensive coordinator. They finished 12-2 and lost the National championship in the final seconds. The biggest difference from 2012 to 2013 was the drastic changes made to the offensive system and the QB Nick Marshall taking over for Kiehl Frazier (also a highly touted QB).

Looking back at Auburn's turnaround doesn't guarantee Miami will have the same results, but this is a perfect example of how possible it is given that the changes made on offense are nearly identical.

Rhett Lashlee was never really the OC at Auburn.

 

[aardvark]

Vegas is going to love the 2020 'Canes. Remove the emotion/fan side and just look at the facts:

-Lost almost every game by 7 points or less.
-Return most of the team.
-Abysmal offense addressed with solid OC hire.
-QB issue addressed with King.
-Kicking issue addressed with Borregales.
-Several years of (statistically) solid defensive play. Whole staff in tact.
-Easy schedule.
-EReed20

As a person who professionally studies risk and return, this should be at absolute worst a 10-2 team going into the ACCCG. And that's factoring in youth and the unknown intangibles of a new offensive system and QB.

Vegas will remember that Miami is coached by Manny Diaz.

They aren't stupid in Vegas. If they were stupid, bettors would be able to beat them.

 

[aardvark]

According to NCAA, in 2013, their offence was ranked 115. Their offensive must have not been that good.

Auburn was 12th in total offense in 2013. Where the **** do you get 115th from? https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2013-team-offense.html . Are you just making up stats?

I can't imagine Auburn ranked 115th in 2013 in any offensive metric. They had a fairly fast paced offense so they might have been lower than 12th in yards per play, but I can't imagine they were 115.

With that being said, Lashlee was always a pretty nominal OC at Auburn. IDK how much credit he deserves for 2013.

 

[ddann]

Vegas will remember that Miami is coached by Manny Diaz.

They aren't stupid in Vegas. If they were stupid, bettors would be able to beat them.

How many games did Miami lose in 2019 when Vegas made the Canes double-digit favorites?

They aren’t stupid in Vegas? LOL.

 

[aardvark]

How many games did Miami lose in 2019 when Vegas made the Canes double-digit favorites?

They aren’t stupid in Vegas? LOL.

Vegas isn’t going to make the mistake of overrating Manny Diaz twice.

And do you really think Vegas was going to make us home underdogs to a team that lost to the Citadel? Or make us underdogs in a de facto neutral game against an opponent that got killed by FAU and struggled with New Hampshire?

Vegas sets accurate spreads. Upsets happen in roughly 25% of games. There are inevitably bound to be plenty of upsets, and that doesn’t mean Vegas is setting bad lines. It just means that nobody can predict ahead of time when upsets will occur.

Yeah, if Vegas run by time travelers, they’d have made FIU 5.5 point favorites over Miami so that everybody in the country would put money on Miami. But, as far as anybody knows, time travel doesn’t exist.

 

[CanesDynasty]

Rhett Lashlee was never really the OC at Auburn.

I actually agree with that because one of my best friends (Die hard Auburn fan) said he wasn't that high on him, and I said, isn't Malzahn a control freak and calls all the plays anyway? He said yep, touche'. But its obvious Lashlee has learned that scheme and to take it up a notch, his passing game at SMU was better than anything I saw at Auburn.

 

[CanesDynasty]

Auburn was 12th in total offense in 2013. Where the **** do you get 115th from? https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2013-team-offense.html . Are you just making up stats?

I can't imagine Auburn ranked 115th in 2013 in any offensive metric. They had a fairly fast paced offense so they might have been lower than 12th in yards per play, but I can't imagine they were 115.

With that being said, Lashlee was always a pretty nominal OC at Auburn. IDK how much credit he deserves for 2013.

He was probably looking up passing rankings because Auburn ran for 4598 yards and 48 tds in 2013... insane numbers

 

[aardvark]

He was probably looking up passing rankings because Auburn ran for 4598 yards and 48 tds in 2013... insane numbers

Auburn was 109 in passing yards in 2013. https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/passing-yards-per-game?date=2014-01-06. Not 115.


I think ST26 was making up a stat off the top of his head, and it happened by dumb luck that Auburn was low in passing yardage. Although they weren’t quite #115 level low.

ST26 at the very least implied that the #115 ranking was for total offense anyway. Not specifically passing offense.

 

[CANE1775]

Both years the defense sucked for Auburn. They were catastrophic. In what you would normally think of when it comes to this program.

I'm like you on your 2nd portion of your post. I don't hate the Lashlee hire. hope we do have success. I just don't think you can take this instance at Auburn and make much of it.

There are more seasons when things look bad at 1st. Than seasons where the dice somehow roll your way like they did in 2013 for this program. The trajectory went down hill fast after 2013. It led to Lashlee being gone.

Are we going to have a great season because of King and slam our heads into the dash because we don't have this type of QB for a few years?

The defense wasn't the greatest either year, but that 2014 defense was much worse. I can't remember exactly, but I want to say every team AU played the last part of the season scored at least 30 in 2014. I definitely remember the defense being the biggest issue. I'm an AU season ticket holder.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

Vegas will remember that Miami is coached by Manny Diaz.

They aren't stupid in Vegas. If they were stupid, bettors would be able to beat them.

I'm going to take it you don't understand anything about finance, hedging and risk management to support that view.

If they're going to remember he's the HC, they'll also remember he was a very, very competent DC that turned the D from abysmal into among the best in the nation.

Convenient how you're forgetting that aspect.

 

[CashMoneyCane]

It's been proven analytically that most games decided by less than 1 score is as much luck as anything else.

It's the reason Miami had higher win percentages than their opponents in something like 5 of the 7 losses last year.

Also, Auburn did what they did in 2013 with the 97th best defense in terms of opponents yards per play. I'll bet anyone here $1 that Miami's 2020 defense isn't 97th or worse.

You can't prove "luck" analytically. It's entirely subjective and cannot be measured. You can prove randomness, to a degree, but that's not equivalent to luck.

If your argument is randomness, randomness regresses to the mean over time. Therefore if it went against you for a long time, it should even out over a larger sample size.

 

[aardvark]

I'm going to take it you don't understand anything about finance, hedging and risk management to support that view.

If they're going to remember he's the HC, they'll also remember he was a very, very competent DC that turned the D from abysmal into among the best in the nation.

Convenient how you're forgetting that aspect.

People greatly overrate Manny as DC.

He was beyond a flop at Texas. And his defenses at Miami were not “among the best in the nation.”

 

[CashMoneyCane]

People greatly overrate Manny as DC.

He was beyond a flop at Texas. And his defenses at Miami were not “among the best in the nation.”

Fourth in total defense in 2018 and 13th in total defense in 2019.

How much glue do you eat?