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Appreciate the work on the numbers and such but I know what I watch when I see the games ... Numbers don't tell the whole story...
100%Appreciate the work on the numbers and such but I know what I watch when I see the games ... Numbers don't tell the whole story...
Got any evidence to back that up or just going off your feelings??No he’s not a good DC or a good LB coach or a good Head Coach
I agree. You will get down votes for that comment and Alabama is in a league of their own comments blah blah blah. But if Your going to call Manny a great DC, which I don’t, you don’t get free passes against great teams. That is when your SUPPOSED to step up and get **** done.We will find out week 1
We will find out week 1 whether numbers are numbers?We will find out week 1
I agree with this and think he’s slightly above average DC. He’s been been a below average coach (some offseason moves boast his D avg to a C or C-).If Mark Richt was the HC with Lashlee as his OC & Manny as his DC we’d be the 2nd best team in the ACC.
Manny is a career coordinator, we need a CEO as the HC, so yes Manny is a good (not great) DC, but the real question should be, is he a good Head Coach?
I don’t think anyone has an issue with Manny being the DC, but it highlights a glaring issue with his staff where he literally has to demote his DC & take over play calling himself in order to keep from having this season mudslide down off a hill, it speaks volumes that in year 3 of his tenure he’s having to make a last ditch effort to keep from getting burned at the stake.
It’s a Macro issue, not Micro. It’s putting a Band-aid over a leak in the levees, eventually the thing is going to break & flood.
The only thing that matters is translating it into Wins on the field, what Manny’s tenure as DC showed us was that he was good against most average teams that we had a significant talent advantage over, but whenever we played teams that had equal level talent, they usually worked us (see Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU), which is exactly where we still are now.
Looking at our schedule & not knowing what King’s health status will be come September, be honest what would you say our record will be this season? I can easily see another. 8-4/9-3 at best, if King makes a full recovery & is good to go all season I could maybe see a 10-2, but knowing what we know about how this team performs under Manny as the HC there’s a good chance we miss out on the Coastal again.
So then the question becomes, how many times we gonna keep going through this obstacle course just to end up with the same result every year? At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?
Yes my bad 2 in the 4 game losing streak. That VT game we had Standish Dobard and Terry McCray playing DE iirc. Won 3 of the 6 games. The other we lost but the spread was irrelevant.
People always went back to getting blown out by Clemson and Wisconsin as why the D was bad in 2017 but those games were just gifted by turnovers from Rosier. I also expected the 2018 Wisconsin game to be the worst of the 3 years before I looked. That one surprised me because I remember the D getting gashed but I guess it was just Jonathan Taylor because they did nothing in the passing game.
Also glad you looked at YPP instead of points or even total yards because our offense and STs had been atrocious through most of that time. That’s where a lot of stats got skewed but you can’t fault YPP.
LOL. Stop. You are the king of trolling, and I mean that in a good way. You're elite. But the only thing we're gonna find out Week 1 is how far behind Alabama we are. And the answer is probably considerably behind. We're going to find out how good he is and how good the team can be when paired with a good offense over the 11 weeks after that one.
You can’t use Bama as a barometer for the same reason you can’t use the worst team on the schedule as a barometer. The best offenses will make any defense look bad and the worst offenses will make any defense look good. You can point at the 2020 defense and say “they gave up 60 to UNC” or “they shut out Duke”. It’s why you have to weigh the whole schedule.You can’t use Bama as the barometer. They can name their score against anyone in the country.
"Manny is a career coordinator, we need a CEO as the HC, so yes Manny is a good (not great) DC, but the real question should be, is he a good Head Coach?"If Mark Richt was the HC with Lashlee as his OC & Manny as his DC we’d be the 2nd best team in the ACC.
Manny is a career coordinator, we need a CEO as the HC, so yes Manny is a good (not great) DC, but the real question should be, is he a good Head Coach?
I don’t think anyone has an issue with Manny being the DC, but it highlights a glaring issue with his staff where he literally has to demote his DC & take over play calling himself in order to keep from having this season mudslide down off a hill, it speaks volumes that in year 3 of his tenure he’s having to make a last ditch effort to keep from getting burned at the stake.
It’s a Macro issue, not Micro. It’s putting a Band-aid over a leak in the levees, eventually the thing is going to break & flood.
The only thing that matters is translating it into Wins on the field, what Manny’s tenure as DC showed us was that he was good against most average teams that we had a significant talent advantage over, but whenever we played teams that had equal level talent, they usually worked us (see Wisconsin, Clemson, LSU), which is exactly where we still are now.
Looking at our schedule & not knowing what King’s health status will be come September, be honest what would you say our record will be this season? I can easily see another. 8-4/9-3 at best, if King makes a full recovery & is good to go all season I could maybe see a 10-2, but knowing what we know about how this team performs under Manny as the HC there’s a good chance we miss out on the Coastal again.
So then the question becomes, how many times we gonna keep going through this obstacle course just to end up with the same result every year? At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?
I think that’s why yards per play is the best barometer. Nothing is perfect and if your defense is constantly on the field because your offense is horrible, the opponent is naturally going to be able to run more plays. More plays almost always equals more yards. So total defense can be drastically altered. Yards per play isn’t as effected by outside forces.Did you account for the offensive woes that we had when he was DC? I remember our defense being out there for a lot more minutes then the offense.
Not defending Manny, just pointing out that if we can improve on our offensive agencies. 3rd down conversion and time of possession, it can only help us moving forward.
So then the question becomes, how many times we gonna keep going through this obstacle course just to end up with the same result every year? At what point do we stop trying to find a silver lining in Manny the DC but hold him accountable for his decisions as the HC?
Now that the dust has settled, as much as I disagree with the moves (or lack thereof), we have to live with what we've got, so I wanted to take a harder look at Manny's performance strictly as a DC.
The sentiment here from most, as it seems to me, is that he sucks overall as a DC. I've read post after post that all have these things in common:
1. We get crushed by every good team we play
2. We make average offenses look great
So, I decided to take a look at 2016 - 2018 and see how he stacked up. Now, opponents YPP is not the best indicator in the world. No metric is. But it's a very good indicator of success. If you look, year in and year out, and the defenses people feel are the best, they are at or near the top in YPP allowed. So I took a look, and frankly, the numbers are staggering in Manny's favor. What I wanted to see is not only what the total YPP allowed was (I think we all know, for better or worse, that overall they were very good those 3 years when looking nationally), but how did we compare to the teams we played. Again, the sentiment here is we can't stop good teams, and bad teams look better when they play us. Well...…...those of you who feel that way probably aren't going to enjoy what the data shows.
-- In 2016 - 2018, we played 36 games vs FBS teams. Of those 36 games, we held our opponent under their season average in YPP on offense 30 times. That's 83% of the time. 83% of the time, when Manny was the DC, the team we played had a BELOW AVERAGE game on offense. That's not bad.
-- Of those 30 such games, 21 of them, we held our opponent to close to a FULL YARD below their season average. If you're not aware, that is a MASSIVE difference. A full yard per play is worth probably 50+ spots in the national rankings (6 YPP vs 5 YPP, etc). So in 21 of 36 games played, the defense held our opponent to almost a full yard less than their average (-0.95 and up is what I found).
-- Of the 6 games that the defense gave up MORE than the opponent's season average, only ONE of those times was it more than a full yard. 2017 vs Virginia, a game we won, but one that lives in infamy on this site. The others: 2016 VT when the whole defense was hurt (0.93 higher than avg), 2016 Notre Dame (0.06 above avg, basically a wash), 2016 Duke (0.15 above avg), 2017 FSU (0.28 above avg), and 2018 Boston College (0.07 above average). So even the games we were worse than average against that opponent, most of them were barely worse.
-- I'm not trying to skew anything here, I'm trying to project this objectively. So what about the offenses we played? That's where one could make an argument against what I've presented above. 2017, we faced a lot of good offenses. 7 of the top 41 offenses. Of those, the defense held 6 of them below their average. The only time they didn't, Notre Dame that was mentioned above, they only got 0.06 yards above their average. So we faced a Top 41 offense more than half the games, and almost every single time, they were below their average against us. 2017 and 2018, we didn't face a lot of good offenses. Only 3 in the Top 51. However, of those, we held ALL 3 to well below their averages. ND, GT, and Toledo. 2018, only 4 offenses in the Top 44. But again, all 4 were held below their season averages.
I will post the spreadsheets below, but the bottom line is, as much as you want to say the defense sucked and Manny sucks as a DC, the data is overwhelmingly against you. We do not face elite offenses week in and week out, but literally every single time except 1 that Manny faced a Top 50 offense, he held them under their season average. Again, doesn't mean the defense is lights out every week. We know we had some performances that left a lot to be desired. But for 3 years we all said "If we just had a good offense to pair with Manny's defense". Well, for better or worse, we're gonna get what we wish for.
2016 SEASON OPPONENT YPP ALLOWED OPP YPP AVG DIFFERENCE FAU 3.01 5.68 -2.67 APP STATE 3.65 6.13 -2.48 GEORGIA TECH 4.95 6.47 -1.52 FLORIDA STATE 5.33 6.48 -1.15 NORTH CAROLINA 5.18 6.3 -1.12 VIRGINIA TECH 6.71 5.78 0.93 NOTRE DAME 6.13 6.07 0.06 PITTSBURGH 5.96 6.94 -0.98 VIRGINIA 4.31 4.82 -0.51 NC STATE 4.51 5.72 -1.21 DUKE 5.2 5.05 0.15 WEST VIRGINIA 3.52 6.29 -2.77
2017 SEASON OPPONENT YPP ALLOWED OPP YPP AVG DIFFERENCE TOLEDO 5.05 6.87 -1.82 DUKE 3.97 4.79 -0.82 FLORIDA STATE 5.72 5.44 0.28 GEORGIA TECH 4.61 5.74 -1.13 SYRACUSE 4.29 5.24 -0.95 NORTH CAROLINA 4.65 5.02 -0.37 VIRGINIA TECH 3.99 5.39 -1.4 NOTRE DAME 4.14 6.39 -2.25 VIRGINIA 6.75 4.9 1.85 PITTSBURGH 4.66 5.43 -0.77 CLEMSON 4.41 5.46 -1.05 WISCONSIN 5.13 6.09 -0.96
2018 SEASON OPPONENT YPP ALLOWED OPP YPP AVG DIFFERENCE LSU 4.55 5.47 -0.92 TOLEDO 5.66 6.08 -0.42 FIU 3.6 6 -2.4 NORTH CAROLINA 4.39 5.7 -1.31 FLORIDA STATE 3.08 5.07 -1.99 VIRGINIA 3.79 5.76 -1.97 BOSTON COLLEGE 5.22 5.15 0.07 DUKE 4.33 5.41 -1.08 GEORGIA TECH 5.32 5.97 -0.65 VIRGINIA TECH 4.86 5.66 -0.8 PITTSBURGH 3.23 5.77 -2.54 WISCONSIN 5.88 6.4 -0.52