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Is FSU Actually Good?

Squid Bumciorek said:
ChatGPT knows what’s up.

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Here’s how I see the upcoming Miami vs. FSU game shaping up — of course, there’s always uncertainty, but based on recent performance and what I know so far, I lean toward Miami (Hurricanes) pulling off the win. I’ll also lay out the factors on both sides so you can see the reasoning.


🧐 What’s going for each team


Miami’s strengths


  • Miami is 4-0 in non-conference games so far. They just beat Florida 26-7 in impressive fashion.
  • Their defense has looked strong, especially at limiting big plays, controlling third downs, and winning physical battles.
  • Offensively, they have good balance, a capable running game, and enough skill at quarterback and receiver to make FSU’s defense have to respect multiple threats.
FSU’s case

  • FSU has looked good in parts, especially in non-conference blowouts. Their young players are showing flashes, like Micahi Danzy having big plays (a 60-yard run + reception game) recently.
  • They have momentum too; they are building confidence coming into conference play.
  • Their quarterback (Tommy Castellanos) has played well so far, and if he’s on, and FSU can establish rhythm and limit turnovers, they have a shot.

🔮 Key variables and what could decide the game
  • How well FSU’s defense can slow down Miami’s run game and prevent long, sustained drives. If Miami controls the clock and wears down the Seminoles, that leans toward Miami.
  • Turnovers and special teams: in rivalry & big games, those often swing the outcome. Penalties, muffed punts/kicks, INTs — FSU will need to stay clean.
  • Game location, injuries, and which team executes better under pressure in the 4th quarter. Miami has recent experience in high-intensity situations; if FSU can keep composure, they might make it close.


✅ My Prediction


I project something like Miami 30, FSU 20 or maybe a 30-17 win for Miami. I think Miami’s defense + balanced offense gives them an edge, especially in the second half.
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It's correct.

Only thing it's leaving out is our OL needs to cut the **** with the stupid penalties. I think the only way we can lose is if we beat ourselves. Talent for talent, esp in the trenches, they can't compete without a lot of help.
 
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JayCane20 said:
FSU offense - B- personnel and a B+ scheme with Malzahn and mainly how he fits their personnel
QB - B - Good dual threat, still not sold on his passing ability, but good fit for their system
RB - B - Sawchuk is mediocre but they do have solid depth there
WR - B+ - Added some talent via the portal. Some gadget guys as well
TE - C - Nothing to brag on there
OL - B - Hansen was a good add from Vanderbilt at LT and Pettus at RT from Ole Miss. Much needed size they didn't have a year ago. Petitbon at Center is very experienced and a good college player at the position. Still weak at Guard. Medley is ok but small and Richie Leonard is not good.

FSU defense - C+/B- personnel and an A scheme with Tony White
DE - C- - extremely mediocre at DE. The kid from Nebraska would be our 5th DE at best and the kid from Tennessee would be 7-8th on our depth chart
DT - B- - Darrell Jackson is a good college DT. 1st round measurables with an UDFA mentality. Makes his play pretty mediocre. Not high on Lyons and no real depth here.
LB - B+ - Big fan of Herring and Omar Graham. They have size/speed/experience at this position
CB - B+ - Wilson is very good. Rawls and the rest of the group not so much.
S/Rover/Nickel B- - Earl Little looks the part this year. Took a massive step. Good for him. Not high on Edwin Joseph, Barker, or Brown.

That's just my early evaluation. I don't think highly of Alabama and they've played no one else to even begin to judge them. Obviously better than a year ago and their players fit their schemes better. Big fan of Tony White.

-They won't be able to match up in the trenches
-They always have something gimmicky for us with Norvell. Malzahn is also known for the gimmicks and trick plays
-Tony White may have Beck in **** if we don't clean up our passing game on the bye week
-Strong run games/strong OL travel well
-Our DL will eat their OL alive but they get you with your eye discipline
-I don't really worry much about their WRs against our DBs
-Road environment could make it interesting if Brockermeyer isn't right

Expecting a 28-17 type of game. Using Alabama as the barometer - Our OL/run game are night and day. Our DL is far superior. They were missing Ryan Williams and Horton most of the game. Our defense looks far more disciplined and better coached. Beck is much more equipped to handle the protections and manage the game than Ty Simpson in his first road start. Those factors easily pull the 14 point deficit into a 10 point type of W.
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This is great, thank you. Seems like eye discipline on D and continuing to run the ball on offense is the key,
 
FSU is a solid team and built with enough speed to make you pay for missed coverages and it showed against bama.

Bama got sucker punched and couldn’t recover. Then It was a darn monsoon after the noles were up by double digits.

FSU was more physical. FSU bullied them. Go watch the tape. Idk if fsu’s oline sucks or is elite. And idk if bamas dline is just poorly coached.
Same thing for bamas oline. Jackson and the other dude were getting a decent amount of pressure on bamas qb. And bama had a bunch of miscues at critical moments.

The biggest challenge is gonna be the same challenge we had with the gators.

Cant give them hope.

Our ***** ups and penalties and the weather made the game close enough where we gave them hope.
How many times in the nba do you see a 20 point lead get slowly erased until it looks like 2 different teams in the 4th quarter. The team that was ahead can’t catch a break or hit a bucket. And the bench players in the other team are hitting 3’s and blocking shots.

FSU has more than hope. Their fans and their players legit believe that they are not only gonna win but win comfortably.

The difference between the gators and the noles is that the gators have been tested and the noles haven't.
We need to see how mentally tough they are. If we do that early we need to see if they fold.


Given the games Florida played last year and this year, I knew they had plenty of fight in them if they kept it close. And that’s what happened until they saw the light at the end of tunnel turn dark.

Another thing that gets overlooked are the 5 players from bama that fsu has on their team. Dudes that likely knew a lot about that team on both sides of the ball.

It’s gonna be a very tough game if we keep it close like we did with the gates.

Maybe my respect for this game has a lot to do with seeing bam just get pushed around like that. I hate the noles. I’m not one of the “it’s better when our rivals are good”.
Fckt that sht!! I want to see them suffer. I want to see their fans suffer. I want to see a **** turnstile of coaches running through there reflecting on their failures while they scrounge for money to pay buyouts every 3 years.
 
pacusmc said:
FSU is a solid team and built with enough speed to make you pay for missed coverages and it showed against bama.

Bama got sucker punched and couldn’t recover. Then It was a darn monsoon after the noles were up by double digits.

FSU was more physical. FSU bullied them. Go watch the tape. Idk if fsu’s oline sucks or is elite. And idk if bamas dline is just poorly coached.
Same thing for bamas oline. Jackson and the other dude were getting a decent amount of pressure on bamas qb. And bama had a bunch of miscues at critical moments.

The biggest challenge is gonna be the same challenge we had with the gators.

Cant give them hope.

Our ***** ups and penalties and the weather made the game close enough where we gave them hope.
How many times in the nba do you see a 20 point lead get slowly erased until it looks like 2 different teams in the 4th quarter. The team that was ahead can’t catch a break or hit a bucket. And the bench players in the other team are hitting 3’s and blocking shots.

FSU has more than hope. Their fans and their players legit believe that they are not only gonna win but win comfortably.

The difference between the gators and the noles is that the gators have been tested and the noles haven't.
We need to see how mentally tough they are. If we do that early we need to see if they fold.


Given the games Florida played last year and this year, I knew they had plenty of fight in them if they kept it close. And that’s what happened until they saw the light at the end of tunnel turn dark.

Another thing that gets overlooked are the 5 players from bama that fsu has on their team. Dudes that likely knew a lot about that team on both sides of the ball.

It’s gonna be a very tough game if we keep it close like we did with the gates.

Maybe my respect for this game has a lot to do with seeing bam just get pushed around like that. I hate the noles. I’m not one of the “it’s better when our rivals are good”.
Fckt that sht!! I want to see them suffer. I want to see their fans suffer. I want to see a **** turnstile of coaches running through there reflecting on their failures while they scrounge for money to pay buyouts every 3 years.
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We'll see how bama plays vs Georgia but from what ive seen theyre kinda one dimensional. They have an ok run game. Last year they were pretty meh in the run game aswell but Milroe was the elite RB that basically was the entire run game plus Ryan Williams

This year feels like you just play the pass vs bama and you win.
 
people need to get out of their feelings.

Going into a prime time night game at Doak vs an undefeated FSU and smashing them while millions watch is way better than beating them after they come off a loss to a mid ACC Virginia. **** FSU, but I want the world to witness us curb stomping them.

That and its way better for our ranking come end of year
 
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These guys won 2 games last year and are talking **** like they’re really national title contenders. Idc what anyone says, I hope uva beats them, I know we beat them, and I hope they lose every other game the remainder of the season. We are Miami fans, why would we want them to ever win. **** that.
 
The books aren’t sold.

DK currently has them at -115 for over 9.5 wins and -115 for under 9.5 wins.

So, flip a coin if they go 10-2 or better or 9-3 at worse. Meaning, it’s a coin flip that they lose 3 games.

They’re not beating us. They’re only a 7 point favorite on Friday. They play at Clemson. Yes, Clemson stinks and they might have thrown in the towel already, but Dabo is always going to have them ready to play at home vs fsu. They play at NC State on a Friday night. They play at Florida to end the season.

I still think they end up at 9-3. They’ll lose to us and 2 of UVA, Clemson, NC state, UiF, and they play Pitt the week after they play us too. It’s home, but they’ll lose 2 of those 5.

Still have them at 9-3. Bump this in December and see how much of a dummy I am.
 
OrangeBowlMagic said:
The books aren’t sold.

DK currently has them at -115 for over 9.5 wins and -115 for under 9.5 wins.

So, flip a coin if they go 10-2 or better or 9-3 at worse. Meaning, it’s a coin flip that they lose 3 games.

They’re not beating us. They’re only a 7 point favorite on Friday. They play at Clemson. Yes, Clemson stinks and they might have thrown in the towel already, but Dabo is always going to have them ready to play at home vs fsu. They play at NC State on a Friday night. They play at Florida to end the season.

I still think they end up at 9-3. They’ll lose to us and 2 of UVA, Clemson, NC state, UiF, and they play Pitt the week after they play us too. It’s home, but they’ll lose 2 of those 5.

Still have them at 9-3. Bump this in December and see how much of a dummy I am.
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They are paper thin, not much depth, no matter the outcome next week, we will hamper their season because them boys going to feel it.
 
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Squid Bumciorek said:
Am I on crazy pills? I'm seeing multiple posters say they want FSU to beat UVA because it's more fun to play an undefeated FSU. What in the actual F### is going on?
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Unfortunately it’s the cost of doing business. Last year we don’t get left out of the playoff at 10-2 if Florida and FSU were top 15 wins.

Duke and Louisville were our best resume builders. Hence why they put a mediocre Bama team ahead of us any chance they could.

But to each their own. Some will root for rivals to be undefeated so we can ruin their season and pad our resume, others want them to go winless and hope we don’t have wiggle room for mistakes
 
canecrazy23 said:
I laughed when he said that. Their depth on D is bad.
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Dramatic Chipmunk GIF
 
Lance Roffers said:
Yes. I think they are actually very good. Alabama has elite analytics and they stomped them.

I would probably have FSU as the favorite being at home, not a prediction, but a betting favorite.
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Line will come out tomorrow and be available for betting until Friday evening, then re-released over the weekend.

Miami -3.5 was the last lookahead. Opened over the summer over a TD. My guess (pre-Friday vs. Virginia, as that will sway the line) is settling on Miami anywhere from -3 to -4. As of today, My numbers have it almost exactly -7 on a neutral.
 
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Dees Brown said:
I agree with the hostile environment take, but we have the counter for that: A physical run game. Some of the early Saban Alabama teams use to do that. They would beat teams into submission. All that screaming don’t mean ****, when you are just lining up and tossing they *** 8 yards down field every time.
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I agree 💯.
This is what separates championship teams IMO. The ability to lean on a physical run game and defense in hostile environments on the road.
It really makes a world of difference.
This Canes team will be locked in and ready for this match up. Defense will need to play their assignments and cover the option, and our run game will need to continue to be physical and setup the play action.
 
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