Tad Footeball
1996 Interim Big East Conference Commissioner
- Joined
- Feb 6, 2014
- Messages
- 19,337
I know conventional wisdom has him leaving and for a myriad of reason that might be the right choice...but is there a better chance than we're realizing that he might come back? Here's the case a hopeful/delusional fan could make:
a) He's not going in the first round and very likely might not go in the second. The NFL has devalued the RB position so much that guys you'd see as guaranteed first rounders (Gurley types) now only go in the second.
b) The NFL Rookie salary structure really kills a kid that doesn't go as high as he's projected or is misled into thinking he'll go (cough, Rosenhaus, cough). A cursory glance of typcial rookie contracts this season has a second rounder getting a 4 year deal at about $1 million per and a signing bonus of somewhere a little over $1 mil. If a kid falls to the 4th (something exponentially easier for a RB to do) that base salary drops to the $600k range with a typical signing bonus of about $500k. Factor in taxes and the agent's cut and that's not exactly "set for life" money for a position where you may not even see a second contract.
c) No matter how much the staff tries (if they're still here), our offense won't be worse next year. Kaaya's progression alone will guarantee that and Yearby's increased touches could diminish Duke's pounding and chance of injury.
I'm not saying there's a great chance of his return and I think he'll be sold on that he's a third rounder at worst (and the school will probably be too dumb/cheap to pay an insurance policy for him) but I'm also saying that the case could be made to come back and try to solidify the probability of getting the second round money as opposed to a doomsday scenario of getting half of that and praying you stay healthy enough to get a real contract.
a) He's not going in the first round and very likely might not go in the second. The NFL has devalued the RB position so much that guys you'd see as guaranteed first rounders (Gurley types) now only go in the second.
b) The NFL Rookie salary structure really kills a kid that doesn't go as high as he's projected or is misled into thinking he'll go (cough, Rosenhaus, cough). A cursory glance of typcial rookie contracts this season has a second rounder getting a 4 year deal at about $1 million per and a signing bonus of somewhere a little over $1 mil. If a kid falls to the 4th (something exponentially easier for a RB to do) that base salary drops to the $600k range with a typical signing bonus of about $500k. Factor in taxes and the agent's cut and that's not exactly "set for life" money for a position where you may not even see a second contract.
c) No matter how much the staff tries (if they're still here), our offense won't be worse next year. Kaaya's progression alone will guarantee that and Yearby's increased touches could diminish Duke's pounding and chance of injury.
I'm not saying there's a great chance of his return and I think he'll be sold on that he's a third rounder at worst (and the school will probably be too dumb/cheap to pay an insurance policy for him) but I'm also saying that the case could be made to come back and try to solidify the probability of getting the second round money as opposed to a doomsday scenario of getting half of that and praying you stay healthy enough to get a real contract.
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