Is Cam Ward the best QB we’ve had since Dorsey? Lance Roffers breaks down the film and numbers

[Lance Roffers]

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Tell me it doesn't taste great this time of year. Partial to cherry, myself.

 

[DMoney]

@DMoney @Lance Roffers

Bravo! Gentlemen, that was amazing. Incredible show and awesome content. @Lance Roffers Brother you are an absolute natural and I'm going to keep telling you this until my fingers fall off. You were born for this man. Go get with a college staff or an NFL team. They would be fools not to hire a man of your prodigious gifts and intellect. Lance, you are the best. You bring so much knowledge and information and you do it in a way that the layman understands. Go get paid!!!!!!

@DMoney The new daily CanesinSight Podcast has been a smashing success! Well done my friend. You and @Peter Ariz do a phenomenal job and its been great to have Pete back. You have the very best Miami Hurricanes site on the interwebz and it isn't even close. Nobody can touch what you are doing right now. Heck, even before the daily pod nobody could touch you! Fantastic job gentlemen!

Thank you for all the support and great posts over the years. People like you make this possible.

 

[Empirical Cane]

Nobody in the Canes community dives deeper into the film and advanced metrics than data scientist @Lance Roffers. He already wrote an in-depth article on Cam Ward for his “Upon Further Review” series, available here. On Tuesday, he joined the CanesInSight Podcast to discuss MIami’s star transfer QB, Cam Ward. Some of Lance’s quotes from the podcast are below:

His overall takeaway after reviewing Ward’s film and advanced stats: “I went in with a cluster of quarterbacks that I would take if I was Miami. I left my film review with Cam Ward thinking he was far and away better than the other individuals that you heard rumored for Miami. I started to see a clearer picture of why Mario really planted his flag on Cam Ward and endured the rollercoaster.”

“He's really a great fit for the Air Raid offense. Pre-snap, he processes very quickly. Excellent accuracy and arm strength. He also has the ability to threaten you deep. I felt like when you looked at the Will Howards, the DJ Uiagaleleis, some of these other individuals that were available, Cam Ward was definitely separating himself as the best fit for Miami.”

On what jumped out about Ward’s game: “His pre-snap processing where he's able to identify, ‘In this look, this is going to be my first read, this is going to be my second read,’ and then his ability to change that picture when the defense also changes it. That was something that really impressed me.”

“I haven't seen a Miami quarterback demonstrate the pre-snap IQ and ability to process the way that Ward has in many years. It could be all the way back to Dorsey, quite honestly. [Brad] Kaaya was good at that. I wouldn't say that he was elite at that. I feel like a lot of the throws were predetermined for Kaaya. I was really impressed Ward’s his ability to identify when a defense changed the picture.”

On Ward’s passing talent: “His release is elite. His arm strength's very good, but it's not something you've never seen before. It's not a Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes-type level. It's a very good arm, but his release is so quick, so compact, so versatile. Everything else for him plays up. Wouldn't change anything with his release at all. He has a natural ability to throw the football.”

“The pre-snap processing, again, is something that really impressed me. This person came from a Wing-T offense. This is not an individual who from 10 years old has been playing in a spread with a personal quarterback coach. For him to go from the Wing-T five years ago to what we see on tape with his ability to process, run Air Raid, stay on schedule with these short passes, but also threaten you deep is truly impressive. It actually leaves me to believe there's more on the bone to even develop a little bit further this year.”

“He's got to learn to trust that protection. If he trusts the protection at Miami, which you hope is going to be better than what he saw at Washington State, you could even see his game go to another level with the ability to threaten a defense in all areas. Every blade of grass on the field.”

On where Ward ranks as a prospect: “I really do believe that this is the best prospect at quarterback that Miami has had probably since the glory days. When you had what you called ‘Quarterback U’ and some of those guys getting drafted super high. The combination of arm strength, processing, accuracy, playmaking makes me understand why Mario planted his flag with Cam Ward.”

On Ward’s mobility: “He has some mobility, but really he wants to have his eyes downfield. He wants to move to create big plays, and sometimes to his detriment. There are several plays where he's bailing on the pocket and just holding the ball for five, six, seven seconds. I believe that he could unlock even more by taking some of those five, six, seven yard runs and getting out of bounds a little bit more instead of holding it.”

“He's probably a 4.8-type runner, which is solid speed for a quarterback. Where you're gonna really see his benefits in the red zone. He scored a lot of touchdowns with his legs (13 the past two years). Something that Miami struggled with last year was converting some of those low red zone type drives into touchdowns. You can use a Cam Ward, a 220-pound body type with strong legs, to get some of those touchdowns.”

On Ward’s tendency to drift backwards: “Those 14-16 yard losses may as well be turnovers because those are drive killers. Your offensive line is always taught to run a guy around the arc and push them deep. And you see Cam Ward trying to back up a lot, which is going right into where the rush is being pushed by the offensive line, rather than stepping up. There was more than one opportunity for him to step up. and either run, get four or five yards and slide, or just step up in the pocket and take a shot where he was still trying to bail on a pocket and get outside. So that's a big area for growth.

On Ward’s fumbles: "He does have small hands, but he also is loose with the ball. I'd love to see him do the two-hand drills in the pocket, understand quick movement, rip movements with the football when you have the ball like this, ripping away from the guy instead of holding it like this to where they can get to it quite as often."

On Ward’s fit with Miami’s personnel: "Cam is a perfect fit for what Miami is going to run in the screen game. For the wide short game, you need to have a strong arm. It might be a short throw from the line of scrimmage, but it's a long throw for the quarterback. It also needs to be quick because you have to get it to receiver to give them time to make a person miss. The initial defender is almost always unblocked, because it's two-on-two or two-on-three in every situation. You're not going to have an uncovered receiver out there, meaning you've got one blocker for two defenders on the initial man on those screens in almost all situations. Miami likes to try and get their center out there for that unblocked guy. But it's pretty rare that he's gonna have time to get out there before the defender has a chance to make a move. So a strong arm in that short, quick game that Miami loves to run."

“It’s also his pre-snap processing. If they do X, I do Y. That's something he excels at all over and over on tape.” (SEE EXAMPLE HERE)



“I watched multiple games of Cam Ward and saw him do that over and over. And Miami does that over and over in their offense. He's gonna love Xavier Restrepo with his ability to read those choice routes and be on the same page with a player who's reading leverage. If that defender does X, I do Y type of routes. He's gonna kill it on that.”

“The other thing that he does so well is his vertical shots. He really has great touch. He reads where a safety is. Is a safety inside hash, outside hash? Do I have leverage? Do I have press bail, press man? Do I have off quarters? All of those things. And his arm allows him to threaten defense.”

On Ward’s toughness: “He's not afraid to stand in the pocket. I went in with a little bit of bias, as quarterbacks who have a ton of fumbles and a ton of sacks taken tend to be a little bit softer. The reason for that is they don't like to get hit. They're just shelling up and dropping. Cam Ward was not that guy on tape at all. He took several shots where he stood in and delivered a ball."

Overall upside: “He should have much better pass protection than what he had at Washington State. And at Washington State, they really didn't have much of a run game at all. It was the Cam Ward Show. If you give him those things and allow him to reduce some of the rogue playmaking where he's throwing it into coverage, you've got a shot at a person who could go to New York for the Heisman ceremony this year. I think he's that good based on what I saw.”

Good to see you rallying the troops like our Canes are headed into a big contest before our hearts, hopes, and dreams get RKOd...

AGAIN...

You can count on me DMoney...I will fight FSU for you!!!

 

[JayCane20]

Dorsey was a great leader and a smart guy who played with a team full of all Americans and first round draft picks. He’d likely be the first person to admit he wasn’t physically as talented as a lot of other guys but he was the right guy for that particular team.

Exactly. Here's what I said at the time. Clearly an unforgiveable sin to say such a thing:

"He also had the benefit of rarely ever being touched with a generational LT, All-American Center, and the rest of the line was very solid.

Surrounded by multiple HOFers, others making HOF ballots, and perennial all-pros... at RB, WR, and TE. Multiple at each position. No one in the history of college football had an easier job playing QB. Dorsey in his prime would be average as **** in this offense with the receivers, RBs, and TEs that we have. But he would have beat GT this year."

 

[Empirical Cane]

@Lance Roffers

Not an attack on TVD at all, but rather point-in-fact compare/contrast...

What are your top 3 expectations that Cam Ward will do differently/better in Miami offense that TVD wasn't able to accomplish last season?

For me:
1) Better "quick" strikes to more receivers in space (WRs & RBs)
2) Better use of TEs
3) Extending plays with mobility

 

[Lance Roffers]

@Lance Roffers

Not an attack on TVD at all, but rather point-in-fact compare/contrast...

What are your top 3 expectations that Cam Ward will do differently/better in Miami offense that TVD wasn't able to accomplish last season?

For me:
1) Better "quick" strikes to more receivers in space (WRs & RBs)
2) Better use of TEs
3) Extending plays with mobility

The big difference in their games is in the pre-snap processing. Ward is much better at reading the picture that a defense gives him and then making the correct choice based on what the post-snap picture shows on leverage and matching from the defense.

In the article and podcast I highlighted several plays that illustrate this. One on double slants where that inside nickel defender has a choice on handling that receiver alignment. You see that defender jump out wide to take the outside slant. You see them bail out and take the hook zone. You see them jump the inside slant as a robber. (You see other coverages as well, but I’m referring to how they’d handle that specific route combination there).

Once Ward sees the CB’s in off and bail, he knows that the nickel isn’t going to jump outside and leave the entire MOF in most circumstances and just reads his leverage and hits outside slant.

TVD was a “see it” guy in that he held it a beat quicker to be sure it was what he thought. He simply needed to see a guy open to throw it.

The release of Ward is so elite and so pure, he’s able to get the ball out quickly in those short passing concepts in a way that TVD couldn’t, despite their arm strength being similar.

You saw this in the high red zone on a TD to tie the game late. Washington started matching that switch release and when the motion held the high defender for a beat before he started to match, Ward had it out so quickly and accurately he couldn’t make the tackle in time.

RAC is a large percentage dictated by the QB. TVD did not enable as much RAC because his receivers weren’t getting it for a beat late.

You’ll see yards after catch go up this year for the same receivers.

Ward makes plays out of structure in a way that few QB’s can. Only Caleb Williams among QB’s I studied did it better than Ward.

TVD was atrocious on plays out of structure. The interception that ended the Florida State game is a throw similar to what I’ve described. He’s a beat late and then doesn’t let it go.

Ward had a throw I highlighted very similar and layered it perfectly. Danny said he’s seen several similar plays from Ward since he’s been here.

TVD could make the same “big time throws” that Ward can, and he would take fewer big sacks simply because he didn’t bail the same way. But Ward is on a different level when you watch the differences in processing and release, then you throw the out of structure on top and it’s not the same offensive potential.

 

[SCarolina Ibis]

I’m most worried about this season vs any season in the last 10 years because this is the best team we’ve had. Last year we had enough to win 9 games, maybe 10. But we know what happened at QB… this is a better roster, top to bottom with an ELITE @Lance Roffers certified dawg. Should be a playoff team (expanded to 12)

I'm right there with you. We all saw what happened to the Jets after Rodgers 4th snap of the season. Obviously that's worst case scenario, but doesn't it feel like the worst case scenario has happened to us multiple times over the last 20 years?

As long as he stays healthy this should be a playoff team.

 

[JHallCanes]

No doubt about it, physically. But he is the best QB at Miami since.

Always the reason people dislike making comparisons or saying “since ____” is people can get hung up on them and dismiss a lot of the message.

We will see if Ward lives up to the hopes, but he’s got a chance.

Absolutely

Dorsey had the intangibles and he was actually more talented than people remember I think as well. Sometimes our fans give the credit to the rest of the team but Dorsey was a really dang good high school QB. Great highlights

 

[JHallCanes]

Be careful. I got assaulted for a week on here for saying something similar not that long ago.

****** part is when I started watching more Cam film, admittedly I’m no guru, but I’m like **** we haven’t had a guy like this since….

And it really sunk in how mediocre we’ve been at the spot for so long

 

[JayCane20]

Thank you for all the support and great posts over the years. People like you make this possible.

Any plans or chances to get some active staffers on the show this spring/summer? Haven't seen anyone get Dennis Smith on a pod since he's been here and he's one of the most interesting dudes in college football. Very misunderstood by our fanbase as well and would be a great interview. Zuck was a great one.

I'd also like to hear someone like Matrix Analytical or one of the other data analytics gurus that evaluate staff performance come on and talk about our staff and primarily new guys like Merritt and Chevis Jackson.

 

[JHallCanes]

Let's see if he's significantly better upstairs, which I'll find hard to believe.

Yeah Dorsey was more talented than people give him credit for. I think we were just talking about his high school highlights and him being a higher ranked recruit?

**** he still started and won some games in the NFL despite his limitations even on a horrific SF team

 

[JHallCanes]

Dorsey was a great leader and a smart guy who played with a team full of all Americans and first round draft picks. He’d likely be the first person to admit he wasn’t physically as talented as a lot of other guys but he was the right guy for that particular team.

Lord knows Miami fans have seen wasted talent over the years for sure

 

[JayCane20]

****** part is when I started watching more Cam film, admittedly I’m no guru, but I’m like **** we haven’t had a guy like this since….

And it really sunk in how mediocre we’ve been at the spot for so long

Yep. It's been a drought.

I mean King was good and a lot of people forget or don't realize how good he actually was in 2020. Cam just brings more arm talent.

 

[Brains]

Good to see you rallying the troops like our Canes are headed into a big contest before our hearts, hopes, and dreams get RKOd...

AGAIN...

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You can count on me DMoney...I will fight FSU for you!!!

Be careful. You'll be going against the 69% of our fanbase that desperately craves an undefeated FSU.

They may be outmanned, but you will be outnumbered.

 

[JHallCanes]

Yep. It's been a drought.

I mean King was good and a lot of people forget or don't realize how good he actually was in 2020. Cam just brings more arm talent.

Yeah King was legit. Typical Miami he gets hurt and we can’t maximize our time with him

 

[Empirical Cane]

Be careful. You'll be going against the 69% of our fanbase that desperately craves an undefeated FSU.

They may be outmanned, but you will be outnumbered.

The layers within layers of this porst is ninja assassin level 10.

 

[DTP]

Exactly. Here's what I said at the time. Clearly an unforgiveable sin to say such a thing:

"He also had the benefit of rarely ever being touched with a generational LT, All-American Center, and the rest of the line was very solid.

Surrounded by multiple HOFers, others making HOF ballots, and perennial all-pros... at RB, WR, and TE. Multiple at each position. No one in the history of college football had an easier job playing QB. Dorsey in his prime would be average as **** in this offense with the receivers, RBs, and TEs that we have. But he would have beat GT this year."

If you go back and watch the games that came down to the wire or even the fiesta bowl loss, there was a distinct game plan that all our opponents used. It wasn’t to let the running game go and focus on stopping the pass.

 

[FrancisSawyer]

For this offense to reach its potential the running game needs to be complimentary to the passing game and not the other way around. We have a very average running back room full of guys who run 4.6. They’re fine for getting 4 or 5 yards but they can never break the big run even when given room. That’s fine if you’ve got a lead and you’re trying to run the clock out and put another team away. It’s counterproductive if you’re trying to score and get leads. Our best player is Cam Ward. He’s not a game manager. We don’t need to use the run to set up the pass for him to have success. We’d be best to probably lean on him as much as we can since he is a proven product. Our best opportunity to make big plays and score touchdowns is with him throwing to X, George, Horton, Jo Jo and Carr. We should use the passing game to soften up the defense and then punish them with our strong but slow run game. If we really want to maximize our talent we need to let our best players do what they do. I don’t think our staff is stupid enough to go through that hassle and spend all that money on Ward to make him hand off 40 times a game so hopefully it won’t be an issue.

Agree 100%. However the first sentence in your post really says it all and it is the very foundation of the problem I've always had with Cristobal. He never seemed to truly understand this concept or he did and rejected it out of hand. What makes me much more optimistic this time is the fact that we have a QB in Cam Ward who possesses all the requisite skills necessary to flourish in Dawson's offense. Looking back on things it seems as though Mario was just never able to fully trust TVD and the reasons for that are quite clear especially in hindsight. Moving forward, I fully expect Mario to let Dawson run the offense the way he sees fit this season as he finally has a QB he feels he can trust.

 

[SWFLHurricane]

Yeah Dorsey was more talented than people give him credit for. I think we were just talking about his high school highlights and him being a higher ranked recruit?

**** he still started and won some games in the NFL despite his limitations even on a horrific SF team

I've never seen a UM player spend more time in the film room than Kenny. In regards to physical attributes, we all know he didn't have a Marino arm, but watch that last drive vs FSU in 2000, and the precision of marching down the field with 2 mins left. Absolute thing of beauty against a very good FSU team 11 months removed from winning a Natty. I was blessed to be able to watch it up close.

 

[grover]

But some of the qb gurus on caneinsight preferred Will Howard that guy may not be starting for OSU after a few games next year.

Count me in on that one. I liked Howard's dual threat ability as well as the fact he won a lot more games (8-4 v 5-7). I actually watched the bad games each had, not just the highlights, and Howard came across as much less reckless.

Also, you're rewriting history here brother. Ward was a roller coaster ride. The guy literally declared for the draft then de-declared. We were Poff or bust by that time. So Mario bought a lottery ticket waiting around for Cam (and his pops). I personally don't think you want your HC taking risks like that.

Regardless, I've been on the Cam bus ever since he joined the team, and am definitely drinking the Kool Aid. This was a **** of a podcast by @DMoney and @Lance Roffers . Thank you both, I learned a ton. Hope we obliterate Billy in game 1 and the Cam for Heisman chatter gets rolling.