Interesting stat regarding the NFL Combine

[No_Fly_Zone]

This point keeps getting ignored because it’s irrelevant. Nobody is comparing Skylar Thompson to Mahomes, just like nobody is saying that a team with five Day 3 picks has the same talent as Alabama or Georgia with five First Rounders.

I’m comparing Skylar Thompson to the 98% of players who don’t get drafted. There were only five P5 QBs drafted last year. Skylar was one of them. He is, obviously, a high-end college talent because he passed a ruthless talent evaluation process to make the NFL.

Most teams aren’t littered with NFL players, whether they are first rounders or seventh. That’s why teams with the most NFL players typically compete for championships. It is a common-sense and objective way to measure talent.

Interesting article that touches on some of the questions I had regarding this discussions (specifically, what sort of value to place on getting selected in the late rounds of the draft versus signing as an UDFA or priority UDFA). The math says you're probably still better off being drafted, but not by a whole lot. And interestingly the careers of 6th and 7th rounders tend to look a lot more like priority UDFAs than even Day 1 or 2 picks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/value-undrafted-free-agents

 

[DMoney]

Interesting article that touches on some of the questions I had regarding this discussions (specifically, what sort of value to place on getting selected in the late rounds of the draft versus signing as an UDFA or priority UDFA). The math says you're probably still better off being drafted, but not by a whole lot. And interestingly the careers of 6th and 7th rounders tend to look a lot more like priority UDFAs than even Day 1 or 2 picks.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2022/value-undrafted-free-agents

This is true, but there is a difference between an UDFA and a guy who doesn’t even got a shot in the pros. We’ve had plenty of UDFAs over the years, as well.

 

[BoxingRobes]

You misread the post. When we ranked in the Top 10 in NFL players, the other teams on that list were programs like Alabama and Georgia. Nobody ever said we had their overall talent.

Alabama and Georgia have quantity AND first round quality. That’s the top level. What you keep missing is that having a quantity of NFL players is a lot better than lacking NFL talent altogether (like the rest of the Coastal).

Just like there is a huge difference between a first rounder and a seventh rounder, there is a huge difference between an NFL player and an accountant with a college jersey on his office wall. It’s common sense. That’s why only 2% of college players reach that level.

The fact that we are producing less NFL players is an obvious, objective sign of talent decline.

You're conveniently missing other teams in that Top 10...just for example...2018...Florida, Florida State, USC and Auburn...Stanford, Tennessee, UCLA just outside the Top 10 as a T-11th.

The records of those teams in and around the Top 10 not named Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, LSU or Miami.

Florida 10-3
FSU 5-7
USC 5-7
Auburn 8-5
Stanford 9-4
Tennessee 5-7
UCLA 3-9

Average Record - 7-6.

A lot like us. Literally 7-6 in 2018.

There are more teams that are like us with those impressive NFL numbers than their are teams like Alabama, Georgia, and Ohio State. It truly means nothing. It is a pre-requisite for success, absolutely. However, it does not correlate nor is it a cause for success. You just like pounding the table on a pointless factoid that means nothing in relation to our program. The fact that most of these NFL Draft picks Miami has produced end up out of the league when their supposed contemporaries are still receiving NFL paychecks should tell you that...just because the NFL gives them a shot, doesn't mean they are talented or worthy of making a grandstanding point that Miami actually has/had talent.

The record speaks for itself and its not just because Miami has had **** coaches - many of which are still employed coaches, many have gotten promotions, etc. They've had some guys...sure. But a true lack of talent has been present and evident for almost 15 years at this point...this forum and fanbase just puts everything on the coaches...but crustacean averse Thomas Brown is getting NFL interviews to be a head coach and Jeff Thomas is playing in the latest upstart flag football operation.

There is a reason why Deep Ball Danny Etling is still receiving an NFL paycheck and Brad Kaaya is writing Hollywood scripts. Your heart and your best intentions may tell you that Brad Kaaya is/was more talented than Deep Ball Danny, but the facts and the evidence, as you lay them out, should tell you, he is not.

 

[KingCane20]

In our low-light event, It’s The Battle of the Corches!!!

In the Red Cornah, we have Fat Al
In The Blue Cornah, we have Lispy Diaz

Take of the tape-
Golden: (2011-2015)
Diaz: (2016-2021)*
*For Diaz, I’ll only consider Def Players recruited from 2016-18, & the entire classes of 2019-21.

Total Recruits-
Golden: 125 players
Diaz: 89 players

Players’ drafted-
Golden: 23
-Dorsett (1st Round)
-Perryman (2nd round)
-Chickillo (6th round)
-Johnson (3rd round)
-Bush (4th round)
-Flowers (1st round)
-Jenkins (4th round)
-AQM (6th round)
-Coley (7th round)
-Burns (1st round)
-Sandland (7th round)*
-Elder (5th round)
-Thomas (3rd round)
-Kaaya (6th round)
-Berrios (6th round)
-Herndon (4th round)
-Njoku (1st round)
-Walton (4th round)
-Johnson (6th round)
-Norton Jr. (7th round)
-M. Jackson (5th round)
-Redwine (4th round)
-McIntosh (5th round)
*Sandland did transfer, but was signed & enrolled at Miami

Diaz: 8
-J. Jackson (5th round)
-Quarterman (4th round)
-Osborn (5th round)
-Garvin (7th round)
-Phillips (1st round)
-Rousseau (1st round)
-Rochè (6th round)
-Ford (7th round)

UDFA’s recruited that played on an active NFL roster at least 3 yrs:
Golden: 10
-Carter
-Edwards*
-Pierre
-Armbrister
-Waters
-Gunter
-Grace
-KC McDermott
-Harris
-Cager*
*Players did transfer prior to NFL, but were enrolled at Miami

Diaz: TBD (Have to wait on Silvera, DJ Johnson, & the Classes of 2018-‘21 to finish their collegiate careers)

So far the NFL recruit-talent hit rate is:
Golden: 26%
Diaz: 9%

This backs up the lack of combine invites for the past two seasons compared to 2017-18, b/c those invites were Golden recruits. Yes, he had a 74% miss rate in regards to NFL talent (although, some of those guys were key contributors), but there’s a reason y our defense went str8 to **** once it was filled strictly w/ Diaz’s players. It’s also the reason y he’s the only coach in over 50 yrs not to win 9 games at least once during his tenure.

Diaz has, thus far, a 91% miss rate on players he recruited either as a DC or HC. That’s almost unimaginable! That’s truly G5, FCS level recruiting…so there should be no ?’s as to y we lost to FIU, LA Tech, MTSU, while struggling w/ CMU & So Miss.

Again, the NFL or Combines are not fool proof in relations to results, but it gives a strong indicator. Now I need a shower, b/c this just made me feel dirty. WTF happened to this program?!! Smh.

@BostonCanes47 please read that post…Manny was horrible..

 

[BostonCanes47]

@BostonCanes47 please read that post…Manny was horrible..

Again for the third time, my argument is rooted in that if the guys Diaz identified and signed went somewhere else they would have been much more successful. Talent wasn’t the problem, it was development and intangibles.

I am talking solely about his talent evaluation which stops the second they sign at UM.

 

[DMoney]

You're conveniently missing other teams in that Top 10...just for example...2018...Florida, Florida State, USC and Auburn

You're making my point. In 2018, FSU was five years removed from a title. They averaged ten wins from 2010-2016 with all of those NFL players. Auburn was five years removed from the title game and had just won ten games in 2017. Florida had won 13 games three times since Miami's last good year. USC was an underachiever like us, but even they were coming off back-to-back seasons over double digit wins.

NFL players usually translate to success. We were the consistent exception.

 

[Rellyrell]

Again for the third time, my argument is rooted in that if the guys Diaz identified and signed went somewhere else they would have been much more successful. Talent wasn’t the problem, it was development and intangibles.

I am talking solely about his talent evaluation which stops the second they sign at UM.

Mi brudah, u’re my guy, but I think u’re allowing hatred to blind u. OK, so let’s address this argument too.

Guys who transferred from Miami under Diaz:
-Cedric Wright (3*)
-Jeff James (3*)
-DJ Johnson (4*)
-Bradley Jennings (3*)
-Derrick Smith (3*)
-Nesta Silvera (4*)
-Al Blades Jr. (4*)
-Gurvan Hall (4*)
-Gilbert Frierson (4*)
-Patrick Joyner (3*)
-Nigel Bethel (3*)
-Jeremiah Payton (4*)
-Christian Williams (4*)
-Adam ElGammal (3*)
-Cameron Williams (3*)
-Sam Brooks (3*)
-Jalar Holley (3*)
-Peyton Matocha (3*)
-Jake Garcia (4*)
-Tate Martell (4*)
-Thad Franklin (4*)
-Avantae Williams (4*)
-Jaylon Knighton (4*)
-Jalen Harrell (4*)
-Isaiah Dunson (4*)
-Elijah Roberts (4*)
-TAC (3*)
-Dazalin Worsham (3*)
-Quentin Williams (3*)
-Key’Shawn Smith (3*)
-Issiah Walker (3*)
-Marcus Clarke (3*)
-Romello Brinson (4*)
-Cody Brown (4*)
-Allen Haye (3*)
-Khalil Brantley (3*)
-Tyler Johnson (3*)

So far, & I think I’m missing a couple, 42% of the recruits Diaz recruited either as a DC or HC transferred out. We’ve seen a good portion of these guys go elsewhere & give their new homes either nothing or the same here, mediocrity, even when going to a G5 program. There’s another group where it’s TBD at their new homes, but the notion of we have talent, but it was poorly coached is a bit of a stretch. All 4* are not built the same.

I used to be of this mindset of the coaching vs. talent, but then I realized coaching has a lot to do w/ talent. If u’re a poor evaluator, then what’s the likelihood u’ll hit on the right players? If u’re a poor recruiter, what’s the likelihood u’ll hit on the right players?

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

This is true, but there is a difference between an UDFA and a guy who doesn’t even got a shot in the pros. We’ve had plenty of UDFAs over the years, as well.

Of course. But the UDFA who makes it into the league isn't all that more talented than the many college players who "almost" (but don't quite) make it into the league. And those players are littered throughout college football.

Marginal NFL talent is just that... marginal. The math says the 6th and 7th round pick is only a little better than a priority UDFA on the roster, and in either case they're most likely to be back-end talent for their careers. It also shows the guys taken in the first 3 rounds have decidedly better odds at a great career compared to the field. Looking at it from a talent gap perspective, there is a noticeable gap between 1st round players and 3rd round players, but then the disparity between a 3rd round pick and a 6th or 7th round pick is much greater than between a 6th or 7th round pick and a priority UDFA.

That suggests to me NFL talent is probably more stratified than people think, and it tells me the difference between the guys who barely make it into the league and the guys who almost (but don't) make it into the league is probably a lot closer than people realize. So if your college roster is full of future 6th and 7th rounders and UDFAs, and you are playing a team of future UDFAs and guys who almost (but don't quite) make it into the league, your talent advantage is marginal, and you shouldn't be surprised when you sometimes lose those games (notwithstanding your team has more "NFL talent" on the roster).

 

[Rellyrell]

You're making my point. In 2018, FSU was five years removed from a title. They averaged ten wins from 2010-2016 with all of those NFL players. Auburn was five years removed from the title game and had just won ten games in 2017. Florida had won 13 games three times since Miami's last good year. USC was an underachiever like us, but even they were coming off back-to-back seasons over double digit wins.

NFL players usually translate to success. We were the consistent exception.

No D; NFL players ≠ success. Teams that have NFL players that are highly drafted (rounds 1-3) = success.

You cannot have a football team filled with a bunch of 5th rounders - UDFA & think that’s the ticket to being a successful football team.

Let’s back up my theory:

Since 2010:

Bama:
73 picks in the top 3 rounds (67% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 161-19 (.894)

OSU:
53 picks in the top 3 rounds (60% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 146-23 (.863)

Clemson:
33 picks in the top 3 rounds (49% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 148-31 (.826)

UGA:
38 picks in the top 3 rounds (46% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 137-39 (.778)

Miami:
19 picks in the top 3 rounds (31% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 95-68 (.582)

Now let’s flip the Time Machine, and see how these teams did from 2000-2009:

Bama:
16 picks in the top 3 rounds (46% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 79-48 (.622)

OSU:
33 picks in the top 3 rounds (48% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 102-26 (.796)

UGA:
28 picks in the top 3 rounds (51% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 98-31 (.759)

Clemson:
10 picks in the top 3 rounds (42% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 79-47 (.626)

Miami:
41 picks in the top 3 rounds (65% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 102-33 (.755)

Notice how even when we had poor coaching from 2001-2009, we had the horses to make up for it. ****, some classify Butch as a poor coach, but I won’t get into that. Regardless, the fact that we’ve been producing marginal NFL players speaks to our mediocrity. You need at least 45% of ur draft eligible players to be Top 3 round quality. Just banging on the table saying we have NFL talent is not going to cut it.

The NFL has a 53 man roster w/ another 14 on the practice squad. The vast majority of the guys drafted from Miami since 2010 (69%) have been either out of the league w/in 3-4 yrs, push down to the practice squad level, or not made an NFL roster at all.

 

[DMoney]

No D; NFL players ≠ success. Teams that have NFL players that are highly drafted (rounds 1-3) = success.

You cannot have a football team filled with a bunch of 5th rounders - UDFA & think that’s the ticket to being a successful football team.

Let’s back up my theory:

Since 2010:

Bama:
73 picks in the top 3 rounds (67% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 161-19 (.894)

OSU:
53 picks in the top 3 rounds (60% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 146-23 (.863)

Clemson:
33 picks in the top 3 rounds (49% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 148-31 (.826)

UGA:
38 picks in the top 3 rounds (46% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 137-39 (.778)

Miami:
19 picks in the top 3 rounds (31% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 95-68 (.582)

Now let’s flip the Time Machine, and see how these teams did from 2000-2009:

Bama:
16 picks in the top 3 rounds (46% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 79-48 (.622)

OSU:
33 picks in the top 3 rounds (48% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 102-26 (.796)

UGA:
28 picks in the top 3 rounds (51% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 98-31 (.759)

Clemson:
10 picks in the top 3 rounds (42% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 79-47 (.626)

Miami:
41 picks in the top 3 rounds (65% of all drafted players)
Record during this time: 102-33 (.755)

Notice how even when we had poor coaching from 2001-2009, we had the horses to make up for it. ****, some classify Butch as a poor coach, but I won’t get into that. Regardless, the fact that we’ve been producing marginal NFL players speaks to our mediocrity. You need at least 45% of ur draft eligible players to be Top 3 round quality. Just banging on the table saying we have NFL talent is not going to cut it.

The NFL has a 53 man roster w/ another 14 on the practice squad. The vast majority of the guys drafted from Miami since 2010 (69%) have been either out of the league w/in 3-4 yrs, push down to the practice squad level, or not made an NFL roster at all.

There is no question you need elite, Day 1-2 talent to be an elite team. Those teams you listed are the absolute elite. But we shouldn't have been an average Coastal team for 15 years with so much NFL talent.

 

[DMoney]

That suggests to me NFL talent is probably more stratified than people think, and it tells me the difference between the guys who barely make it into the league and the guys who almost (but don't) make it into the league is probably a lot closer than people realize. So if your college roster is full of future 6th and 7th rounders and UDFAs, and you are playing a team of future UDFAs and guys who almost (but don't quite) make it into the league, your talent advantage is marginal, and you shouldn't be surprised when you sometimes lose those games (notwithstanding your team has more "NFL talent" on the roster).

How do you quantify the guys who "almost" made it? That's where this argument falls apart.

We know there is a systematic, comprehensive process to determine who does make the NFL, and who doesn't. That's why those NFL stats are so meaningful.

 

[TheOriginalCane]

It’s absolutely insane that canes fans are defending Golden. Dude was the king of taking players worse than Jags.

What do you expect? Same fan base that is now ready to build a statue of Ephraim Banda on campus, because NFL promotion.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

How do you quantify the guys who "almost" made it? That's where this argument falls apart.

We know there is a systematic, comprehensive process to determine who does make the NFL, and who doesn't. That's why those NFL stats are so meaningful.

You don't need to quantify them. You simply need to acknowledge their existence and the fact athletic talent in the NFL takes the shape of a tiered pyramid (few elite players, some great player, more good players, many average players, etc...). The rest is pure logic. I don't need to know how many athletes are in the "almost made it" rung of the pyramid below the "barely made it" rung to know there are more athletes in the lower rung.

 

[DMoney]

You don't need to quantify them. You simply need to acknowledge their existence and the fact athletic talent in the NFL takes the shape of a tiered pyramid (few elite players, some great player, more good players, many average players, etc...). The rest is pure logic. I don't need to know how many athletes are in the "almost made it" rung of the pyramid below the "barely made it" rung to know there are more athletes in the lower rung.

I don't see any evidence there is a "small gap" between the guys who barely made the NFL and the 98% who didn't make it. I'm sure there are some borderline guys, but there are way more who never even get close. It is hard to make the NFL, and there are a lot of checkpoints before you get there.

 

[bshaw28]

You misread the post. When we ranked in the Top 10 in NFL players, the other teams on that list were programs like Alabama and Georgia. Nobody ever said we had their overall talent.

Alabama and Georgia have quantity AND first round quality. That’s the top level. What you keep missing is that having a quantity of NFL players is a lot better than lacking NFL talent altogether (like the rest of the Coastal).

Just like there is a huge difference between a first rounder and a seventh rounder, there is a huge difference between an NFL player and an accountant with a college jersey on his office wall. It’s common sense. That’s why only 2% of college players reach that level.

The fact that we are producing less NFL players is an obvious, objective sign of talent decline.

You're right - I re-read misunderstood what you were saying.

I 100% agree our numbers of NFL combine invites have dropped and that indicates we've had a drop in talent, and that's been reflected in our wins.

I also don't want to undermine the accomplishment of getting drafted. While we may disagree on the value of 6th-7th RD picks, I don't want to diminish that as an achievement for those players.

Where I have a different opinion is - I don't think this talent drop is a new thing:

2021 + 2022 = 6 NFL Combine Invites
2008 + 2009 = 6 NFL Combine Invites

Our lack of talent really dates back to Cokers last 3 full classes - 2004 / 2005 / 2006. They were bad and we've never really recovered. The only defense for Coker is the state of Florida was just weirdly bad 04-06. FSU & Florida had highly ranked recruiting classes those years too that turned out really bad.

2008 + 2009 NFL Combine Invites - Miami 6, Florida 6, FSU 4. Yikes

Recruiting actually improved under Shannon & Golden. It still wasn't good, but it was better. Richt was surprisingly bad, and Manny is still a little TBD but certainly isn't looking very good.

 

[DMoney]

You're right - I re-read misunderstood what you were saying.

I 100% agree our numbers of NFL combine invites have dropped and that indicates we've had a drop in talent, and that's been reflected in our wins.

I also don't want to undermine the accomplishment of getting drafted. While we may disagree on the value of 6th-7th RD picks, I don't want to diminish that as an achievement for those players.

Where I have a different opinion is - I don't think this talent drop is a new thing:

2021 + 2022 = 6 NFL Combine Invites
2008 + 2009 = 6 NFL Combine Invites

Our lack of talent really dates back to Cokers last 3 full classes - 2004 / 2005 / 2006. They were bad and we've never really recovered. The only defense for Coker is the state of Florida was just weirdly bad 04-06. FSU & Florida had highly ranked recruiting classes those years too that turned out really bad.

2008 + 2009 NFL Combine Invites - Miami 6, Florida 6, FSU 4. Yikes

Recruiting actually improved under Shannon & Golden. It still wasn't good, but it was better. Richt was surprisingly bad, and Manny is still a little TBD but certainly isn't looking very good.

2008-2009 was a definite low point. Those were the terrible Coker classes, starting with the disaster in 2004.

 

[bshaw28]

I don't see any evidence there is a "small gap" between the guys who barely made the NFL and the 98% who didn't make it. I'm sure there are some borderline guys, but there are way more who never even get close. It is hard to make the NFL, and there are a lot of checkpoints before you get there.

There's 2 ways I think about this:

1) 98% of High school football players couldn't get a scholarship offer from Miami

It's an accomplishment most HS players can't achieve, for sure. But look at the bottom 5 guys in every Miami recruiting class. A large majority never get past depth/practice/injury replacement players. Most transfer out before 4 years because they're not really meant for the P5 level. 6th-7th & UFA usually have similar fates in the NFL. They're just depth players for a couple years.

2) Look at the NFL Trade Value Chart to visualize value

By the time you get to the 7th Round, those picks have almost no value and are completely interchangeable. The #225 ranked player won't be much different from the #500 ranked player. 6th-7th RD guys aren't much different than someone you could find on a practice squad or a XFL/USFL/CFL roster. They become a dime a dozen. If you compare them to ALL NCAA players, sure there's a big difference. But a 7th Round pick compared to say a 2 year starter at UNC/VT/Pitt that never played in the NFL...that gap isn't that big IMO.

 

[BostonCanes47]

Mi brudah, u’re my guy, but I think u’re allowing hatred to blind u. OK, so let’s address this argument too.

Guys who transferred from Miami under Diaz:
-Cedric Wright (3*)
-Jeff James (3*)
-DJ Johnson (4*)
-Bradley Jennings (3*)
-Derrick Smith (3*)
-Nesta Silvera (4*)
-Al Blades Jr. (4*)
-Gurvan Hall (4*)
-Gilbert Frierson (4*)
-Patrick Joyner (3*)
-Nigel Bethel (3*)
-Jeremiah Payton (4*)
-Christian Williams (4*)
-Adam ElGammal (3*)
-Cameron Williams (3*)
-Sam Brooks (3*)
-Jalar Holley (3*)
-Peyton Matocha (3*)
-Jake Garcia (4*)
-Tate Martell (4*)
-Thad Franklin (4*)
-Avantae Williams (4*)
-Jaylon Knighton (4*)
-Jalen Harrell (4*)
-Isaiah Dunson (4*)
-Elijah Roberts (4*)
-TAC (3*)
-Dazalin Worsham (3*)
-Quentin Williams (3*)
-Key’Shawn Smith (3*)
-Issiah Walker (3*)
-Marcus Clarke (3*)
-Romello Brinson (4*)
-Cody Brown (4*)
-Allen Haye (3*)
-Khalil Brantley (3*)
-Tyler Johnson (3*)

So far, & I think I’m missing a couple, 42% of the recruits Diaz recruited either as a DC or HC transferred out. We’ve seen a good portion of these guys go elsewhere & give their new homes either nothing or the same here, mediocrity, even when going to a G5 program. There’s another group where it’s TBD at their new homes, but the notion of we have talent, but it was poorly coached is a bit of a stretch. All 4* are not built the same.

I used to be of this mindset of the coaching vs. talent, but then I realized coaching has a lot to do w/ talent. If u’re a poor evaluator, then what’s the likelihood u’ll hit on the right players? If u’re a poor recruiter, what’s the likelihood u’ll hit on the right players?

Likewise bro, All love.
I think a lot of those guys were wanted by the majority of P5 schools. At the time were they questionable takes? Jeff James, Holley, Peyton, Adam elg, and maybe Hayes are the only guys I remember the board and P5 schools not being all over.

A lot of those guys still have time to turn it around. I think a lot of them have traits and talent, they just have awful mental makeup and lack maturity which is a reason why they didn’t pan out here

If you look at goldens classes he had at least 5-10 dudes per class who had no business of even camping at Miami and did not have other P5 offers.

Golden was much much much better at identifying body types which is why I think he had more guys hit the league, but Diaz was better at building classes with more depth and finding guys with better traits. A lot of them just never grew and ended up being tweeners, which could be because of their individual work ethic and the culture of the program.

I can remember it like yesterday the dudes who would commit or flip to Miami a week before national signing day who nobody knew who they were under Golden.

It was worded poorly by me, but my whole point in defending Diaz which is extremely difficult to do was in the context of Golden.

Great great analysis by you in this thread, it’s been interesting revisiting those eras and comparing them.

 

[No_Fly_Zone]

I don't see any evidence there is a "small gap" between the guys who barely made the NFL and the 98% who didn't make it. I'm sure there are some borderline guys, but there are way more who never even get close. It is hard to make the NFL, and there are a lot of checkpoints before you get there.

Who said anything about the 98% of college players who don't make it? You are the only person talking about them. I'm talking about the guys who almost but don't quite make it.

For instance, look at the XFL starters and compare them to the bottom of the NFL. Guys like Skylar Thompson are closer to the D'eriq Kings and Brett Hundleys of the world than they are to Aaron Rodgers or Pat Mahomes.

When you put "drafted" players all in the same "talent boat" it ignores the stratified nature of the talent in the league and the analysis is lacking.

 

[Rellyrell]

There is no question you need elite, Day 1-2 talent to be an elite team. Those teams you listed are the absolute elite. But we shouldn't have been an average Coastal team for 15 years with so much NFL talent.

Again, D; in all due respect u’re equating “NFL Talent” w/ on-field success. U’re also overrating us while devaluing our opponents. If the vast majority of our draft picks are roster numbers 49-53, then what is that equating to?

I’m going to break this down further so we all can see what’s our biggest issue in trying to compare

2005-Present (Total Draft Picks from the Coastal/team):
Miami: 84 (35 top 3 round picks)
VT: 62 (21 top 3 round picks)
UNC: 55 (23 top 3 round picks)
UVA: 48 (13 top 3 round picks)
GT: 31 (10 Top 3 round picks)
Pitt: 23 (6 top 3 round picks)*
Duke: 9 (2 top 3 round picks)
*Pitt joined the ACC in 2013*

Record vs. ACC Coastal from 2005-present:
Vs. Duke: 14-4
Vs. Pitt: 7-3
Vs. GT: 10-7
Vs. VT: 10-8
Vs. UVA: 9-9
Vs. UNC: 8-10

Total Record: 58-41

What tells me is this:

1. While Miami has had more draft picks than every Coastal team, the quality is not overwhelming compared to their biggest rivals .

2. Majority of our quality draft picks came in the earlier part of joining the ACC.

3. The opponents that boasted a double digit quality draftable players, we struggled mightily. Notice w/ Duke & Pitt, who only provided 8 total high end draft picks, we went 21-7 against them. However, when facing GT, UVA, VT, & UNC who produced a combined 67 high end draft picks, we went 37-34 against said opponents.

In essence, we haven’t put enough on the plate to separate ourselves from the rest of The Coastal. We’ve blended right in w/ the rest of these guys.

When you break down the difference in top 3 round draft picks produced by us vs. UNC, VT, UVA, & GT & spread that over a 19 yr period, you’ll see on the field, we haven’t separated ourselves. Hence, we’ll see some 9 win seasons here, 8 win seasons there, and a perennial ceiling of 7 win seasons.

The combine is telling us we ain’t the Miami of old, & the NFL draft boards r saying the same chit. We just ain’t grasping that concept b/c we’re desperately living in the past, trying to hold on to “NFLU.”