forums

Interesting stat regarding the NFL Combine

No_Fly_Zone said:
Exactly. And I said it before and I'll say it again... those 6th and 7th rounds picks have much more in common with UDFAs when in comes to NFL career length, NFL starts, and Pro Bowls than they do with even 3rd round draft picks.

Athletic talent is tiered (like a pyramid) and that matters to the discussion. It's very hard to measure in a sport like football, but sports like track make this point easier to understand.

The fastest U20 100m outdoor time (electronic) in the US last year was Erriyon Knighton at 10.04s. That's the best.
Add .3 seconds (10.34) to that time and you've got another 14 kids who can run it that time or faster. That's elite.
Add another .3 (10.64) there's 126 kids. That's great.
Add another .3 (10.94) and it shoots up to 365 kids. That's still pretty good.

Being sub-11s for an U20 is pretty impressive feat, for sure. But there is a world of difference between the 10.9s kids and the 10.3s kids. And the number of kids who can run 10.9 to 11.5 is legion.
Click to expand...

Totally Agree.

It isn't perfect (or a pyramid which would be better) - but here's a graph to visualize it. Could be the NFL Draft, could be a roster in any sport.

There will always be a small amount of top talent. There will always be plenty of Average/Mediocre talent, which can be easily interchangeable.


1678363381979.png
 
Advertisement
bshaw28 said:
Totally Agree.

It isn't perfect (or a pyramid which would be better) - but here's a graph to visualize it. Could be the NFL Draft, could be a roster in any sport.

There will always be a small amount of top talent. There will always be plenty of Average/Mediocre talent, which can be easily interchangeable.


View attachment 232509
Click to expand...

The difference between a 6th/7th Round pick and a UDFA is that the 6th/7th Rounder picked up the phone.
 
bshaw28 said:
100%.

34% of our draft picks the last 15 years have been in rounds 6 & 7.

At that point it becomes a bit of a dart throw, so slightly better odds to gamble on the athlete from South Florida. But emphasis on slight (which is our whole point). That gamble is one the reasons our Day 3 numbers remain so high.

Special shot out here to 2011 6th RD pick TE Richard Gordon.

- Captain of the "My Birth Certificate says I'm 16 but I'm actually 32" Team
- In 5 years at Miami he had 10 catches for 62 yds at Miami. He played 5 yrs in the NFL and had 4 catches for 14 yds.
- He made over $2 million for 76 yds receiving in 10 years. Gordon is my dude.
Click to expand...
Hey let’s not forget kick return yards…



















A2A4227B-3847-4890-B178-6CBE197BD670.gif
 
Advertisement
No_Fly_Zone said:
Exactly. And I said it before and I'll say it again... those 6th and 7th rounds picks have much more in common with UDFAs when in comes to NFL career length, NFL starts, and Pro Bowls than they do with even 3rd round draft picks.

Athletic talent is tiered (like a pyramid) and that matters to the discussion. It's very hard to measure in a sport like football, but sports like track make this point easier to understand.

The fastest U20 100m outdoor time (electronic) in the US last year was Erriyon Knighton at 10.04s. That's the best.
Add .3 seconds (10.34) to that time and you've got another 14 kids who can run it that time or faster. That's elite.
Add another .3 (10.64) there's 126 kids. That's great.
Add another .3 (10.94) and it shoots up to 365 kids. That's still pretty good.

Being sub-11s for an U20 is pretty impressive feat, for sure. But there is a world of difference between the 10.9s kids and the 10.3s kids. And the number of kids who can run 10.9 to 11.5 is legion.
Click to expand...
Ideally, I'd prefer using NFL starts to draft picks. There are various evaluation checkpoints you have to hit before you start a game on an NFL field. I suspect this stat would favor Miami- we had 200 starts for our UDFA alone since 2010, which seems inordinately high.

The hard part is gathering the stats for the other teams.
 
bshaw28 said:
So when it's put into numbers - Miami 6 wins vs UNC & FSU has 9 wins vs Miami in the last 13 years.
So if the FSU-Miami gap is wider - Miami should've only have won 1-2 more games vs UNC the last 13 years (to make 7-8 total) but it shouldn't be 9

Is that fair? I'd say 1-2 more wins vs UNC the last 13 years sounds right to me. But that's when I look at things rationally.

Now, in my head as an irrational fan, I'd say:
- We should've beat UNC 3-4 more times the last 13 years. We lost 4 games by 4 points or less
- We should've beat FSU 3-4 more times the last 13 years. We lost 5 games by 5 points or less

VT we struggled with before the ACC. It never made sense. We were 6-6 vs VT in the Big East. Butch was 1-5 with WAY more of a talent advantage than our ACC teams. GT is such a weird outlier with that offense.

But I 100% agree not winning the Coastal doesn't make sense. IMO we should've won the Coastal at least 2-3 more times.

Looking back - the 2010-2014 teams are the ones I'm really disappointed in. The other years I'm not that surprised - I think they performed about right relative to their talent level (for the most part).
Click to expand...
OH OH….you said…

Horror Candyman GIF
 
Advertisement
bshaw28 said:
Graham had 213 yds receiving & 5 TD's his one year on the team. He was the #2 TE
Trubisky had 305 yds rushing & 5 TD's his one year as a starter.
Trubisky also had 3,700 yds passing & 30 TD's
Turbisky also had 1,000 yds passing & 11 TD's prior to his 1 year as a starter

The "moving the goalposts" comment comes because this has splintered into 2 different arguments that aren't being tied together correctly.

1) Who is the better NFL Talent
Jimmy Graham by far. By a wide margin

2) Who is helped their team win more games in College?
Trubisky by far. By a wide margin

The point is you can't say Jimmy Graham is a 5x NFL Pro-Bowl and use that as a case for why Miami should win more games if he barely played at Miami.

Similarly - you can't acknowledge RD 1 & 2 Draft picks are more talented/valuable, show that UNC has 4 more than Miami since 2010, then make the argument Miami is WAY more talented because Miami has 13 more 6th & 7th RD picks since 2010. That's moving the goalposts.
Click to expand...
You typed alot of sh-t to show that Trubisky started 13 games at Unc.
 
3FW said:
The year Golden was under .500 we had the 2nd most players drafter behind Bama.
Click to expand...
We were still “NFL U” while going 7-6 under Coker. That was part of the reason the program fell off so much. Instead of prioritizing winning, we prioritized getting players drafted. Kids started believing that just by wearing a Miami uniform, they’d get picked. Guys who had no business leaving early started doing so only to get drafted late or not at all. If we can get back to prioritizing winning, the NFL stuff will come with it.
 
Advertisement
Rellyrell said:
247sports.com

Miami's recent NFL Draft run tells a story of the need to significantly level up the elite talent

In order to compete for championships, Miami has a way to go in terms of leveling up the elite talent on the roster.
247sports.com 247sports.com

@DMoney @BoxingRobes @bshaw28

This article eloquently stated points we were going round about on. Top 3 round draft picks r what drive results, not washed out 5-7th round picks.
Click to expand...
IMO

The amount of Day 3 guys gives us a high floor
The lack of Day 1 & 2 guys gives us a low ceiling
 
Talent wise, the 1st teams under Golden were prob the best since early 00s. Only issue was the depth. That’s what happens when you miss on quality backups. Couldn’t coach his way out of a brown paper bag though. You saw what a washed CMR (with a 1997 offense) did with Golden’s roster right away.

2014 & 2015 teams had over 30 future NFL players on the roster each year.

Imagine having 32 NFL players and losing 58-0 to a team with LESS NFL players. Mind blowing stuff.
 
Advertisement
MumbleRap said:
Talent wise, the 1st teams under Golden were prob the best since early 00s. Only issue was the depth. That’s what happens when you miss on quality backups. Couldn’t coach his way out of a brown paper bag though. You saw what a washed CMR (with a 1997 offense) did with Golden’s roster right away.

2014 & 2015 teams had over 30 future NFL players on the roster each year.

Imagine having 32 NFL players and losing 58-0 to a team with LESS NFL players. Mind blowing stuff.
Click to expand...

I 100% agree with you on Golden underachieving. But saying the 2015 Miami team had more NFL players than Clemson is where things get misleading.

When you break it down - Clemson was very top-heavy & Miami was very back-heavy. Those UFA's boost Miami's numbers, but don't make a difference

1679489475777.png


2015 Golden had 28 NFL players and got thumped by Clemson by 58. 2017 Richt had 19 NFL players and got thumped by Clemson by 35.

But when you compare the 2015 Undrafted "NFL" players to the 2017 "Non-NFL"players at their positions - you see how little difference there is.

1679489801634.png


That's a 7-0 advantage in NFL players for 2015, but I'd rather have the 2017 group.

Obviously Richards is the 1 difference maker and skews the advantage to 2017 - but all the other players are pretty interchangeable.
 
Last edited:
Advertisement
Back
Top