How good is Akheem Mesidor?

[AllAboutTheU]

But who says you have to resign him at that point? You'd be getting a guy for what should be his best years on a rookie contract. They're overthinking this like it's the NBA and you're investing in someone longterm. People say NFL stands for "Not For Long" for a reason. Get those good 4 or 5 years for cheap, then move on.

The draft is the easiest way to land and retain elite talent. If you’re drafting him an anticipating 4 or 5 years max then he needs to be a high level starter immediately for that to make any sense.

 

[brock]

I think Mesidor or moten is our most consistent dline man . And it’s not because of Bain that mesidor is just making all these plays, mesidor is talented in his own right. Some nfl evaluators are starting to push the narrative that mesidor is a better pass rusher than Bain. I think Technique wise he’s more diverse, Bain did ball vs A&M and needs to continue to do so in the playoffs to get that narrative off of him

 

[canecrazy23]

I wrote up an Upon Further Review that I'll post tomorrow. They were really good.

Blount, Scott, Moten, all of them played well up front. Few times Moten got out of his gap (especially early) but overall he played well.

Blount influenced the first interception. Last one he and Mesidor stunted and Blount looped inside while Mesidor split a double as the blockers didn't hold tight enough after the loop.

Sorry I meant how did our OL tackles do against their number 1 pass rush.

 

[DTP]

It's a huge indicator. If you're 19 and performing and testing well, teams project you to continue to get better. Potential that all teams want. Your testing has room to improve, skill, technique, strength. All of it.

At 25, you're a finished product and are beating up on players 19-22 for the most part.

In my analytics grad program I did a study on age and the draft and overall I found a clear and consistent signal between age and Approximate Value for each position. It was almost universally linear that the younger the player, the better they were compared to their cohort (think of it like a bucket of similar players. I'm not comparing a 7th round DT to a top-10 pick).

This sample was over two decades of players and was pretty much for all aged 20-25 players. Younger = Better.

Especially when you smoothed it to show value of each pick as the draft went along. You smooth the value of picks to avoid saying a 6th round pick at the spot Tom Brady was picked is worth more than a 2nd round pick etc.

I still have that study somewhere and could share the raw pivot results. I don't think I have the paper itself (I didn't go for publishing), but I definitely still have the raw.

Isn’t the idea of drafting someone in the first couple of rounds to get a player that can immediately impact your team? Why draft a guy who’s not as good now because he might develop into a star just in time for you to have to resign him to a second contract?

Like I said, all things being equal, of course a younger guy is a good move but if you’re concerned about adding impact players on a rookie contract (which is pretty much all the NFL is about) why would you not take a finished product who can start fo you right now? Get five years of peak production on a rookie contract and then let someone else overpay him when he’s on the downside of the age spectrum for NFL players.

 

[DTP]

I think Mesidor or moten is our most consistent dline man . And it’s not because of Bain that mesidor is just making all these plays, mesidor is talented in his own right. Some nfl evaluators are starting to push the narrative that mesidor is a better pass rusher than Bain. I think Technique wise he’s more diverse, Bain did ball vs A&M and needs to continue to do so in the playoffs to get that narrative off of him

Sorry but no. Mesidor absolutely kills it because Bain draws all the extra blocking assignments. If he was being doubled on almost every passing down, his numbers would suffer. You’re going to see more and more “reports” about how Reuben Bain isn’t really that great because NFL teams drafting near the end of the first round want him to drop desperately. Just last week we saw some random stat about his arm length and how edges with “short arms” aren’t good. And then he goes out and blocks a field goal with his Tyrannosaurus arms.

 

[E1k]

JT should get alot of credit here. Last year and even mesidor first year here to now? Completely different level of player.

Now he has a consistent rush plan with multiple counters and his pad level is much better and consistent, he rushes with a purpose now and that has taken him from a good player to all American level

I can definitely see him being at least a top100 player drafted

 

[Golsen82]

No, I’m talking about at UM. I had classes with some players and then also knew others from the dorms too.

That’s very cool though. I would love to see pics of Vince when he was a kid. Bet he was adorable.

My mistake Vince went to santaluces but born in boynton beach

 

[Jassid82]

In a draft where there aren’t many elite level DEs..I can absolutely see a scenario where Mesidor goes in the first round. All you need is one team to not overthink it. Plus teams have to adapt to this new age college athlete that will be 23-24 years old coming out of college. The NCAA granted 6th year options and never changed the rule back after the pandemic.

Can’t blame the kids for that especially in the NIL era where they can make more money in NIL than they can as a 3rd round pick and in some cases a 2nd round pick. Why leave?

 

[brock]

Sorry but no. Mesidor absolutely kills it because Bain draws all the extra blocking assignments. If he was being doubled on almost every passing down, his numbers would suffer. You’re going to see more and more “reports” about how Reuben Bain isn’t really that great because NFL teams drafting near the end of the first round want him to drop desperately. Just last week we saw some random stat about his arm length and how edges with “short arms” aren’t good. And then he goes out and blocks a field goal with his Tyrannosaurus arms.

In actual in game film, mesidor looked better than Bain regardless of stats in the Texas A&M game multiple people are saying it . This has been the case for a number of games this season. Just gotta give credit where it’s due

 

[DTP]

In actual in game film, mesidor looked better than Bain regardless of stats in the Texas A&M game multiple people are saying it .

Don’t pay attention to anyone who tells you Mesidor is better. They’re either trying to hurt Bain’s draft stock or just being contrarian edge lord types who are desperate for attention.

 

[brock]

Don’t pay attention to anyone who tells you Mesidor is better. They’re either trying to hurt Bain’s draft stock or just being contrarian edge lord types who are desperate for attention.

Mesidor is definitely a beast though. And in terms of being technical as a pass rusher I think He has more tools than Bain. What separates bain is his consistent run defense. He still can improve as a pass rusher besides his go to pass rush plans

 

[MumbleRap]

We have the chance to have 3 canes in the first round.

Cici feels like a top 15 lock already Bain is also a lock but I’m not sure where he goes. Mesidor has the chance to go in the back half of the first round.

Hasn’t been done since 2007.

4 of them**

Scott will have 1st round hype after this season. He might have the best film of anyone on the team in 2025

 

[01Falsetto]

4 of them**

Scott will have 1st round hype after this season. He might have the best film of anyone on the team in 2025

I’m talking about the 2026 draft for the 3. If we’re counting future first rounders on this team I see 5. Along with Scott, Toney is a first rounder IMO.

Moten and bell if they stay have potential for round 1 in 2027 but that is looking like a strong class.

 

[JHallCanes]

It’ll just be another example of the scouting nerds taking a 21 year old based on analytics (like the ones being laid out here) rather than just take the dude that’s dominating on the field

 

[Lance Roffers]

Isn’t the idea of drafting someone in the first couple of rounds to get a player that can immediately impact your team? Why draft a guy who’s not as good now because he might develop into a star just in time for you to have to resign him to a second contract?

Like I said, all things being equal, of course a younger guy is a good move but if you’re concerned about adding impact players on a rookie contract (which is pretty much all the NFL is about) why would you not take a finished product who can start fo you right now? Get five years of peak production on a rookie contract and then let someone else overpay him when he’s on the downside of the age spectrum for NFL players.

Precisely what I'm saying. They are not as good during their rookie contract. Because if a player is having production as a 25 year old against college players, typically, NFL teams believe they will not be near as good against NFL players. The data bears this out.

I'm not talking about second contracts at all. I am talking about their rookie contract. Older players simply are not as good as their younger counterparts. It makes sense if you think about it. An 11 year old playing average on your 14 and under team is far better than a 14 year old on the same team.

This is just DL in case you like to see it for all DL. Of course there is inherent bias in the numbers and the paper went far deeper into that angle and accounted for it, of course, but just pulling up the raw data and presenting it here for the point, it holds regardless of round, age bucket, position etc.

The bias is, that players tend to declare as soon as the NFL draft tells them they'll be a high draft pick. And you only make it to age 25 by having warts through injury, redshirting, not being valued highly enough to declare etc. The sample size is also small enough to require further analysis (which I did and accounted for with statistical terms such as Ballast etc.) and it pretty well holds throughout that the best players on their rookie contracts are the youngest. Again, a talent proxy is administered because the most talented declare the quickest, but overall, you'd expect younger to be best on their rookie contracts.

The NFL Draft essentially ends around pick 108, as it is mostly flat from there and teams should probably value picks after that as mere dart throws overall.

Fun topic, appreciate the back-and-forth. I don't have it all figured out or I'd be making millions for some NFL team. It is fun to see the results of different studies and how much signal there does seem to be in the age discussion for NFL draft picks.