- Nov 4, 2017
I think there are many ways to view the season. 5-11 beat the Vegas projection, but I look at it as a tale of two seasons. They went 0-7 to start and 5-4 to finish. But even that doesn't tell the story, you have to look at how badly that 0-7 start was, losing in embarrassing fashion and to some bad teams, such as Washington.Exactly. Today was the first game all season I rooted for the Dolphins to win. There really wasn't much at stake in terms of the draft, due to the strength of schedule aspect with other teams that could end up 5-11.
The Lions were the only variable. Once they were up 14-0 then 17-3 I was wavering on my rooting interest in the Dolphins. But I had confidence Detroit would find a way to blow it, as they have all season. So I continued to root for Miami.
I predicted 5-11 this season on Finheaven. But I didn't want to be correct. I always make that prediction at the very end of the prior season, so I'm relying on big picture criteria and not garbage dredged up during the offseason. For next year I'll forecast 6-10 for the Dolphins. Not complicated. Ryan Fiztpatrick's career winning percentage is basically 40%. The closest translation to that over a full season is 6-10.
Overall this was an awful season for the Dolphins. It looks cute to be resourceful and competitive only if you are stuck in today's prism and totally clueless regarding long term realities. The NFL is dictated by quarterbacks. The Dolphins desperately needed that top pick.
This offseason there will be overboard optimism. Fans somehow think 5 victories is an accomplishment. That's because they were dunce enough to believe the 0-16 and worst of all time proclamations. Translate to next season when the same type of fan who expected 0-16 this season will somehow anticipate a competitive team if not a winning team. Meanwhile the subpar roster is still a reality. The team had a grotesque YPPA Differential this season, second worst only to Cincinnati. Fitzpatrick has a long history of underperforming when more is expected.
This was the season to get it done. Next year the stark roster reality shows up. I hope Tua or Jordan Love enter the equation.
The 5-4 finish is rather remarkable. I'm not going to play the "what if" game, but they easily could have been 6-3 with a win over the Jets had a bad PI call not been made at the end of the game. They beat the division leading Eagles and then today, of course, the Patriots in Foxboro with a bye on the line. This team is clearly trending up and we're so used to seeing Miami finish trending down to close out a season.
The QB spot is most troubling because Fitzpatrick is at the end of his career. While I would love for us to land a stud CB like Okudah 5th overall, it'd be a huge gamble to pass on Tua and run the risk we can't land Love. To me, there is a huge drop-off after Burrow and Tua, and an even bigger drop-off after Love to Herbert/Hurts/Fromm. I dread that we may even entertain the thought of drafting one of those latter three QBs. I just don't see us replicating another bad year like this next year, so the "tank for Lawrence" fans are misguided. I mean, if we couldn't sniff the top pick when we lost Xavien Howard and Preston Williams and a starting RB for the year, we're not going to do so with 3 first rounders added to the roster and a bunch of free agents added next year. The time for a QB is now. I hope we go for Tua, but it's not a lock we can get him 5th. A team like Jacksonville or the Chargers could mortgage the future and trade up with Detroit to take him ahead of us. That worries me more than anything.