2nd year tells all. First year not much. Look at every UM coach anf many others. In most cases you know in year 2.
In not so sure that 2nd year thing applies when the first year is an abomination. The point of today's exercise is to analyze how many guys, who turned it around to a championship level, did worse in their first year than the fired guy did in his last year. I think it's interesting to see just how much or how little those eventual championship coaches improved over the fired guy in their first year.
Another interesting analysis would focus on how much those guys improved or deteriorated during the course of their first year. Did Carroll start fast and fade? Or did his USC team steadily get better in year 1? Or was it a mixed bag of ups and downs over the course of year 1? Same with Saban at Alabama.
Looks like Rix is heading into uncharted waters of deterioration in year 1.