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Harrison-Hunte Update

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My sources tell me he will be picking on Friday at 4 pm with Miami being a finalist. Thanks now you all buy me a beer.
 
DMoney said:
You and @PalyCane are skipping Step One to go to Step Two.

This is not an issue of math. Obviously, you can make a good bet based on probability that gets a bad result.

The issue here is the assignment of probability itself. Rivals alone decides how "probable" it is that a player succeeds. It's an opinion.

In your hypo, the probabilities are already defined and absolute. That's not the case here, which is the whole point.
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I now see the disconnect.

No one here is saying that rivals is right because they say so. That’s the opposite of what is being said. What proves the rankings is the nfl draft. 5* kids hit at a much higher rate than 4* kids, and 4* kids hit at a much higher rate than 3* kids.

We got into this because you took the position that McIntosh getting draft where he did proves they were wrong on him. We’ve discussed that enough. It’s also been in this thread said many times - directionally, the services are good. How good is a question. Which ones are better than others is a question. Who can do better than them is a question.

But once you accept that uncertainty and variance is inherent in predictions, you quickly get to the important question - if the rating services aren’t that good at what they do, then someone should be able to do it better. If not, then maybe they are doing a good job.
 
the one thing i know is in 2014 or 2015 D Money stated Mcintosh was ranked wrong or underratted,,,,,he was right.

He didnt go to hindsight..he didnt state what round he would be drafted in...He stated early on the kid would be the goods...and he was. Kid Left as a Junior.
 
gogeta4 said:
the one thing i know is in 2014 or 2015 D Money stated Mcintosh was ranked wrong or underratted,,,,,he was right.

He didnt go to hindsight..he didnt state what round he would be drafted in...He stated early on the kid would be the goods...and he was. Kid Left as a Junior.
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Saying it in advance has credibility as to that kid. Anytime someone puts themselves on the line up front so they can be assessed later, that’s worthy of notice. Now I love D$, but he is a known optimist who has also been high on kids who didn’t turn out as good. It’s hard to view any one prediction in isolation, whether for rivals or D$. That’s why the discussion has been about averages, in effect (and what is proven by subsequent events).
 
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Ethnicsands said:
Saying it in advance has credibility as to that kid. Anytime someone puts themselves on the line up front so they can be assessed later, that’s worthy of notice. Now I love D$, but he is a known optimist who has also been high on kids who didn’t turn out as good. It’s hard to view any one prediction in isolation, whether for rivals or D$. That’s why the discussion has been about averages, in effect (and what is proven by subsequent events).
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Dude just take the L already
 
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