forums

Tears Gator Tears

grover said:
Love your charts. But facts can be deceptive with the right cherry picking. He has a **** of an arm but has inconsistent accuracy to be able to thread the needle. And he's overly confident. His OL won't do him any favors either. I believe Lagway will be a pick machine next year now that everyone has film on him.
Click to expand...
Well of course, this is just looking at one statistical metric. It doesn’t at all tell the whole story. It also sin’t exactly predictive. Though QBs that in general don’t commit many twp typically consistently do so. Again this isn’t TD:Turnover. It’s looking at every throw and assigning a big time throw stat or a turnover WORTHY stat line. Regardless everyone would be a complete liar if they’d say you’d prefer to be a different qb on THIS metric.

Pressure 2 sack ratio is also quite important and actually a bit more predictive. I have that for him somewhere I can post.

I also have his actual accuracy% number I can post for the full season as well. Idr if it was good or not. But it’s more than just comp% obviously.
 
Advertisement
If Lagway was our QB we would be talking **** too. He's talented at the end of the day he'll be as good as his work ethic
 
Last edited:
grover said:
Love your charts. But facts can be deceptive with the right cherry picking. He has a **** of an arm but has inconsistent accuracy to be able to thread the needle. And he's overly confident. His OL won't do him any favors either. I believe Lagway will be a pick machine next year now that everyone has film on him.
Click to expand...
1739078061659.png
 
Calinative said:
View attachment 319431
Click to expand...
It was the inconsistent accuracy that I recall watching but I still thought he was fine because he’s a true freshman with a nothing great OL, a good couple of RBs, and nothing special catching the ball last season. I felt he needs time and better players around him. I think they got better at the WR spots with the high school class and those guys might step up. I’m not sure about their OL next year. Probably improved because of experience.
 
Calinative said:
Well of course, this is just looking at one statistical metric. It doesn’t at all tell the whole story. It also sin’t exactly predictive. Though QBs that in general don’t commit many twp typically consistently do so. Again this isn’t TD:Turnover. It’s looking at every throw and assigning a big time throw stat or a turnover WORTHY stat line. Regardless everyone would be a complete liar if they’d say you’d prefer to be a different qb on THIS metric.

Pressure 2 sack ratio is also quite important and actually a bit more predictive. I have that for him somewhere I can post.

I also have his actual accuracy% number I can post for the full season as well. Idr if it was good or not. But it’s more than just comp% obviously.
Click to expand...
How does a guy who got intercepted on nearly 5% of his pass attempts have a low turnover worthy play rate? I couldn’t find his actual ranking because the page that lists individual interception percentages only goes up to 100 but Florida as a team was 123rd. Mertz only threw two of them.

Sometimes these weird PPF stats don’t make any sense.
 
DTP said:
How does a guy who got intercepted on nearly 5% of his pass attempts have a low turnover worthy play rate? I couldn’t find his actual ranking because the page that lists individual interception percentages only goes up to 100 but Florida as a team was 123rd. Mertz only threw two of them.

Sometimes these weird PPF stats don’t make any sense.
Click to expand...


Perhaps none of Lagway's interceptions were turnover-worthy? Obviously, it was a Gator fan who compiled the stats...
 
To me it all comes down to who is teaching him to read defenses. He has all the physical tools, and he can watch all the film he wants. But there’s a world of difference between watching film with Lincoln Riley vs watching film with Billy Napier. He may not pick up those nuances that separate the good from the elite.
 
The kid looks like he may become a talent and a decent QB going forward but as of today the 9th of February he hasn’t earned all the accolades that are being thrown at him in my eyes.

Now I’ll preface this by saying I’m in no way a QB guru like some but I see what I see from watching football for over 60-65 years and just comparing what he has done so far against what others I have seen through the years have done

Maybe he becomes a HOF or just an adequate QB but as of today he’s not the second coming of Tebow as most Gator fans are proclaiming but if he does pan out to be this ill be the first to give the young man his props.
 
Advertisement
Cajuncane said:
The kid looks like he may become a talent and a decent QB going forward but as of today the 9th of February he hasn’t earned all the accolades that are being thrown at him in my eyes.

Now I’ll preface this by saying I’m in no way a QB guru like some but I see what I see from watching football for over 60-65 years and just comparing what he has done so far against what others I have seen through the years have done

Maybe he becomes a HOF or just an adequate QB but as of today he’s not the second coming of Tebow as most Gator fans are proclaiming but if he does pan out to be this ill be the first to give the young man his props.
Click to expand...
DJ seems like a poor man's Jalen Hurts to me
 
DTP said:
How does a guy who got intercepted on nearly 5% of his pass attempts have a low turnover worthy play rate? I couldn’t find his actual ranking because the page that lists individual interception percentages only goes up to 100 but Florida as a team was 123rd. Mertz only threw two of them.

Sometimes these weird PPF stats don’t make any sense.
Click to expand...
Relatively low when compared to his big time throw RATE. If you just look at that chart I provided he has the 3rd highest. But again the original chart was JUST listing true freshman. This second one i provided isn't even doing that.

Interceptions may or may not be turnover worthy, regardless whether the defender caught the ball. What if 3 of the interceptions deflected off his WRs hands? What if one of the interceptions was a hail Mary before the end of a half? They'd remove that one.

They also are much stricter about fumbles. They do not care about who recovers the fumble. If they think the fumble was avoidable you will get a turnover worthy play for it even if you recover. And if you look, Lagway has a good fumble grade relative to the rest on this list.
 
Calinative said:
Relatively low when compared to his big time throw RATE. If you just look at that chart I provided he has the 3rd highest. But again the original chart was JUST listing true freshman. This second one i provided isn't even doing that.

Interceptions may or may not be turnover worthy, regardless whether the defender caught the ball. What if 3 of the interceptions deflected off his WRs hands? What if one of the interceptions was a hail Mary before the end of a half? They'd remove that one.

They also are much stricter about fumbles. They do not care about who recovers the fumble. If they think the fumble was avoidable you will get a turnover worthy play for it even if you recover. And if you look, Lagway has a good fumble grade relative to the rest on this list.
Click to expand...
I guess the guy watching the film determines what’s considered “turnover worthy”. Seems like if 5% of your passes are being intercepted though (one of the worst if not THE worst percentage in the country) it’s more than some bad luck and deflected passes.

Regardless of what someone calls turnover worthy or big play worthy or whatever, his play didn’t translate into more points for the gator offense.
 
I think he will bust. He could have the tools but if he fails Napier will never get out of the QB killer narrative that was stuck to Mario before. I don't see him turning a kid into anything.
 
DTP said:
I guess the guy watching the film determines what’s considered “turnover worthy”. Seems like if 5% of your passes are being intercepted though (one of the worst if not THE worst percentage in the country) it’s more than some bad luck and deflected passes.

Regardless of what someone calls turnover worthy or big play worthy or whatever, his play didn’t translate into more points for the gator offense.
Click to expand...
That was my first question. What determines a turnover worthy play? If it's subjective, it's a meaningless statistic subject to bias.
 
Advertisement
Gonna take the other side of this. DJ is closer to cam than hurts. He made elite throws as a tf. He has tremendous arm talent and he has insane expectations for next year. He will almost certainly fall short of these expectations
 
JD08 said:
That was my first question. What determines a turnover worthy play? If it's subjective, it's a meaningless statistic subject to bias.
Click to expand...
A lot of PPF stats are subjective. Especially if you don’t know what play was actually called.

Still I’d prefer someone who makes “turnover worthy plays” but doesn’t actually turn the ball over instead of someone who just turns it over. ****, Cam probably led the country in “turnover worthy plays”.
 
TakeitinDiaz said:
To me it all comes down to who is teaching him to read defenses. He has all the physical tools, and he can watch all the film he wants. But there’s a world of difference between watching film with Lincoln Riley vs watching film with Billy Napier. He may not pick up those nuances that separate the good from the elite.
Click to expand...
At the end of the day you can teach someone to read a defense perfectly. Will they read it in game is always up to them. The player is responsible for Ben if he’s taught it perfectly. He’s the last one with the ball in his hands to make those teaching moments worth it. If he can’t see it, that’s on him not the staff
 
TOcane said:
I think he will bust. He could have the tools but if he fails Napier will never get out of the QB killer narrative that was stuck to Mario before. I don't see him turning a kid into anything.
Click to expand...
If he’s wild under pressure and can’t see **** yea he will flake out. He can still make some plays here and there like (TVD) but he won’t be that difference maker teams need to compete.
 
Back
Top